luvssnow_spokane Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 After 9 rounds of appetizers, then the main course, I would hope everyone's snow/cold appetite is fully sated.Well lets get to the main course then! So far the appetizers have been mainly cold and wet and just taste like . 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Just arrived at the lake house to watch the game...still sitting at 32 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 A lot of us have been pretty good with this stuff lately. I'm the one who predicted lowland snow (and or snow on the ground) for New Years at least two weeks ago.Yeah you did well in this time period too and this should qualify as a modified Arctic Blast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I thought you called for an ice age starting in 2017The start of a multidecadal cooling. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 My thoughts from mid-December. The polar domain is fighting a bit harder than I thought it would, but it should give in eventually. I would say the EPO drop has been more like off a cliff instead of gradual, but you have been pretty accurate for the most part. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Portland NWS really missed an opportunity here. Oh don't worry, they were all over it this morning in the AFD. "Light rain ahead of the front will reach the SW WA coast early thisafternoon and slowly move SW across the forecast area, reaching thePortland metro area around 4PM, Salem around 8 PM, and Eugene around10 pm. The 12z model soundings show an interesting temperature andmoisture profile mainly to the north when the precipitation firstarrives. The surface is forecasted to be above warming, but the layerjust above the surface is projected to be below freezing. Thissuggests that some snow could be mixed in with the rain initially.The precipitation will be light during this time, and do not expectany accumulations, but have updated this evening`s forecast to have afew hours of a rain/snow mix for parts of the Willamette Valley, theColumbia River Gorge, and the lower Columbia River Valley." Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 A lot of us have been pretty good with this stuff lately. I'm the one who predicted lowland snow (and or snow on the ground) for New Years at least two weeks ago.That was an outstanding call. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 What has broken our way?? lol... I have seen nothing break our way up here yet. Was it in December? Because I missed it. Oh yeah I got a trace of snow when many models at time showed more. Or was it when this weekend showed 3 inches of snow here tonight through tomorrow. Maybe that's it. OH yeah it has not happened yet but I am sure it will ... that's it. The general cold pattern and lowland snow in places. I'm not talking about fine details. Relax...you will have snow tonight. You trust the models way too much. In fact even they are insistent we will have some. This is a good scenario for this area to over perform. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I would say the EPO drop has been more like off a cliff instead of gradual, but you have been pretty accurate for the most part.Thanks. It's very difficult to forecast specifics 3-4+ weeks in advance, so I'm okay with it (so far). Could blow up in my face eventually, though. I know that I wasn't bullish on early January because I remember that heated debate I got into with Flatiron over it. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 PDX NWS fully believes the roads will be bad Monday from the packed snow from the 1-3 inches they think Portland/North valley could magically get. "Temperatures will drop below freezing early Sunday evening, and staythere through Monday for most areas. So, roads likely to stay slickand icy/snowpacked during that time, making for hazardous drivingconditions." Getting real hard to take these guys seriously. I'm not sure any model supports the outcome they are going with. They are either going to come out of tomorrow looking like geniuses or complete amateurs. Tough to see more than 1" of accumulations for anyone below 1,000'. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Oh don't worry, they were all over it this morning in the AFD. "Light rain ahead of the front will reach the SW WA coast early thisafternoon and slowly move SW across the forecast area, reaching thePortland metro area around 4PM, Salem around 8 PM, and Eugene around10 pm. The 12z model soundings show an interesting temperature andmoisture profile mainly to the north when the precipitation firstarrives. The surface is forecasted to be above warming, but the layerjust above the surface is projected to be below freezing. Thissuggests that some snow could be mixed in with the rain initially.The precipitation will be light during this time, and do not expectany accumulations, but have updated this evening`s forecast to have afew hours of a rain/snow mix for parts of the Willamette Valley, theColumbia River Gorge, and the lower Columbia River Valley." But they forgot to issue the customary WSW. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Thanks. It's very difficult to forecast specifics 3-4+ weeks in advance, so I'm okay with it (so far). Could blow up in my face eventually, though. I know that I wasn't bullish on early January because I remember that heated debate I got into with Flatiron over it. The debate was about the mid December/holiday period, goofus. And we're not reliving that. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 As for the mid Willamette Valley it will be interesting to see what happens later as I see no way we reach the forecast high of around 40f. I imagine a southerly breeze could bump the lower levels, but for now, we are all in the lower 30's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 The debate was about the mid December/holiday period, goofus. And we're not reliving that.Lol, you referenced mid-December to chastise my New Years thoughts. Can't deny it because I have the screenshots. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Another outlander pissing match incoming!!! 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Thanks. It's very difficult to forecast specifics 3-4+ weeks in advance, so I'm okay with it (so far). Could blow up in my face eventually, though. I know that I wasn't bullish on early January because I remember that heated debate I got into with Flatiron over it.Are the latest euro weeklies not showing a +Pna after mid-month. And if so, you think they are off? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 But they forgot to issue the customary WSW. That's coming in the afternoon package. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Another outlander pissing match incoming!!! He has the screenshots. I have no chance. Piss away, Phil. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Another outlander pissing match incoming!!!Que the theme song from "Saw". Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 That's coming in the afternoon package. Ah. Retroactive. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 They are either going to come out of tomorrow looking like geniuses or complete amateurs. Tough to see more than 1" of accumulations for anyone below 1,000'. Yeah I'm still thinking T-1 inch and probably the trace will be a lot more common for most. Its not like we've never seen these kind of setups before. The precip will run out just as it gets cold enough, we've seen it all the time. I think some random places could get lucky and get some isolated post frontal showers that might dump higher amounts in isolation but I don't see how this can give a widespread 1-2 or 3 inches. More likely than not they will look pretty silly by this time tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 At least the urine might freeze in the next 36 hours or so... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Are the latest euro weeklies not showing a +Pna after mid-month. And if so, you think they are off?Not until week four, but I don't agree with their current depiction either..I think they're mishandling the tropical convection. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Pretty impressive how cold it is everywhere right now. I'm still at 32 here and it sounds like a lot of places are in that area. Not bad considering we are ahead of the Arctic front. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Pretty impressive how cold it is everywhere right now. I'm still at 32 here and it sounds like a lot of places are in that area. Not bad considering we are ahead of the Arctic front. Tim will have you know... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Given the recent model trends for the "arctic" event, time to break out this video: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 At least the urine might freeze in the next 36 hours or so...I'm stuck in a tiny Miami apartment with four people and a broken AC unit. No chance. Don't piss me off. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 At least the urine might freeze in the next 36 hours or so... Don't piss facing north. Or east in Portland. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 When do the euro ensembles come out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I'm still forecasting we will all have a lot of fun this month. It's easy to forget we always deal with these glitches going into a good period of weather. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I miss the hot dog symbol for the weenie people. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Given the recent model trends for the "arctic" event, time to break out this video: I mean, PDX will probably still see at least a few days below freezing... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 When do the euro ensembles comie out? The Euro's are commies? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 That was an outstanding call.I predicted early January being a thing earlier than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Tim will have you know... The arctic front will scour out the trapped low level cold and warm us up tomorrow. That is a 100% accurate statement BTW. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 The Euro's are commies?I figured Comey had a hand in this model disaster. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 30 with dense fog! SCORE! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 When do the euro ensembles come out?They're usually out by 12:30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 Sitting at 36.5F here in Victoria with light rain and the occasional snowflake mixing in. The timing of this has been pretty good so far with cloud cover moving into the region just as it was getting light out; it's hard to see it warming up much today before the real cold stuff starts filtering in tonight. There's a lot of excitement/anxiety for the stuff shown late next week, but we may be underestimating what's coming tonight into tomorrow. This is still a pretty dynamic situation by our standards, it's been a long while since a short wave with 850mb temperatures below -10C has rolled through the PNW in early January. Maybe it's a good thing expectations have been held in check for this one, though I'm fully expecting there will be surprises and favorable model busts in the snowfall department over the next 2 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 31, 2016 Report Share Posted December 31, 2016 I mean, PDX will probably still see at least a few days below freezing... Agreed, was just looking for an excuse to post that haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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