Niko Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 The GOM is wide open for business with this run.Big time.....I think this storm will provide more moisture then the previous storm we just had. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Big time.....I think this storm will provide more moisture then the previous storm we just had. Yeah, earlier runs were touting 2X as much, so do the math.. Let me clarify that. The hardest hit areas look to have a shot at a 20" Big Dog, vs the 10 incher we just did 2 days ago. Now we just need to reel that portion of the storm into SMI and all's good Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Yeah, earlier runs were touting 2X as much, so do the math..Question here is, will this continue??!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Yeah, earlier runs were touting 2X as much, so do the math.. Let me clarify that. The hardest hit areas look to have a shot at a 20" Big Dog, vs the 10 incher we just did 2 days ago. Now we just need to reel that portion of the storm into SMI and all's good That's our goal with this storm. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Here is IWX thoughts in their afternoon afd "Good large scale consensus signals ofintensifying surface cyclone developing over the srn plains late Friwhich then ejects ne through the srn lakes Sat. Sfc low trackingnwwd somewhere through IL/IN and then into MI will allow intense lowlevel thermal advection within expanding warm sector to obliterateprior arctic dome late Fri night into Sat am. However prior to thatoccurring deep/moist slantwise ascent within retreating arctic wedgepromises initial heavy snowfall Fri evening followed by mixing tobrief sleet/freezing rain and then even rain as sfc temps crawlabove freezing for a time Sat. Transition timing at this rangeremains uncertain though with notable spread in how fast arcticdome erodes. Signal trends not surprising with colder look in mostguidance Fri evening and slower ptype transition Sat am. Thussuspect some significant snow accums likely early followed by aperiod of icing. Regardless warm sector emergence looks bothshallow and brief as progressive cyclone aloft wraps quickly newdand will wrap strong low level cold advection wing east in itswake Sat aftn-evening with renewed snow chances. Further residualmoist cyclonic flow aloft and rapid veering nwrly low level flowwill undoubtedly yield a period of intense lake enhance snow Satnight before transitioning to dwindling lake effect shsn Sun" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 18z NAM through the end of run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Yikes NAM is not good it looks like. At least out to 84hr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Second half of Friday night rush hour looks impacting around here...I bet if this continues, ppl will want to leave work early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 18z NAM pushing the 0C isotherm line the farthest south of the bunch...usually its amped and farthest north...the HP then squeezes the system and a SLP forms just S of KC... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121318/namconus_mslpa_us_53.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121318/namconus_T850_us_53.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121312/gfs_T850_us_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 18z NAM might be catching onto a SE flow off LM so folks from MKE on north towards Sheboygan may get some Lehs... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121318/namconus_mslp_wind_ncus_53.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Wow NAM. And thats only thru midnight Friday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z GFS Para...10:1 ratios http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016121312/gfsp_asnow_us_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z GFS Para...10:1 ratios Ayeeee lock it in! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z GEPS...took a tick south it seems...or maintains the southerly solution out of the global models... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121312/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_15.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121312/gem-ens_apcpn24_us_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121312/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_17.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121312/gem-ens_apcpn24_us_13.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121312/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_18.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121312/gem-ens_apcpn24_us_14.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121312/gem-ens_apcpn_us_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z EPS...similar to the bunch...nearly all of the ensembles are now cutting the low through S/C IL... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016121312/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_4.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016121312/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_5.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 @ Okwx, how do the EPS snow maps look for this system??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Cool dude......Chios! What about you?Pelopeonnese town called Astros about 1.5 hours SW of Athens. My brothers wife is from Chios he was there this summer they left right before the Fires started down there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 The GOM is wide open for business with this run.Actually this is almost entirely Pacific moisture. If this had Gulf moisture too than that would be even that much better! Take a look at the 850 streamlines and you can see where the moisture is coming from.At the end of the 18Z NAM run the trajectories do show the moisture making it towards Ohio early Saturday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Actually this is almost entirely Pacific moisture. If this had Gulf moisture too than that would be even that much better! Take a look at the 850 streamlines and you can see where the moisture is coming from.At the end of the 18Z NAM run the trajectories do show the moisture making it towards Ohio early Saturday morning.If you look at the 18z 12k NAM run you can see where GOM moisture is getting entrained into the system as well as the Pacific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Southern wisc looks really good right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 If you look at the 18z 12k NAM run you can see where GOM moisture is getting entrained into the system as well as the Pacific.Those are pressure lines in that map you showed, not streamlines showing where the moisture is coming from. If you match up our maps where mine shows moisture at 850 for example, you can see there is gulf moisture in the deep south which is where your map shows some light showers, but the trajectories at that time are taking it to the Ohio Valley. You have to follow the streamlines to see where the source. There is some very shallow moisture that makes it up earlier from the Gulf(925mb), but the main source is the Pacific. By the time the Gulf opens up where the deeper moisture makes it north, it's not until further east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 18z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Might need to break out the shorts for this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 the 18Z GFS really crapped out the secondary band on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Gross. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 The towel is about to be thrown. 18z horrible run. It just gets worse and worse. Along with 12z looks like our brown December to forget continues. Canadian was no better and euro nothing to write home about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 the 18Z GFS really crapped out the secondary band on Saturday.This looks like it could be waa or bust 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 LOT's thinking... Friday through Tuesday...The main concerns are:* Potentially significant winter system Friday through Saturday,with mixed precipitation type concerns.* Another blast of bitterly cold air in the wake of this systemSaturday night through Sunday night.An extremely impressive lower level thermal gradient/barocliniczone will exist across the Plains on Thursday into Friday. At themid and upper levels, piece of PV bringing us the bitterly coldweather this week will dive southward toward northern New Englandand the Canadian Maritimes. At the same time, multiple shortwavedisturbances will come ashore onto the west coast and then carveout a positively tilted trough over the Intermountain West. Thiswill result in rapid height rises into the Midwest, along withvery strong warm advection out ahead of surface cyclone that willdevelop over the Plains. Associated strong isentropic ascent and alead shortwave will likely cause a band of moderate to locallyheavy snow to break out Friday across the region. The mainuncertainty is the positioning of the most focused forcing of thelead shortwave Friday afternoon, with large implications onsnowfall amounts and impacts to the busy Friday afternoon/eveningcommute.The 12z operational GFS model, as well as recent NAM runs,indicate that the lead wave will move right across northernIllinois, favoring areas north of I-80 for potentially significantsnow accumulations (6"+ in less than 12 hours). Initial snow willbe high ratio given cold air temperatures and strong lift co-located with a ~100 mb deep snow growth zone. On the other hand,the foreign guidance, particularly recent runs of the ECMWF, is abit slower and focuses the lead wave into Wisconsin. This meansthat while some light snow is probable mainly along/north of I-88Friday afternoon/early evening, impacts would be much less. Giventhe uncertainty and resulting lower confidence, capped PoPs atlikely north of I-80.Moving into Friday night through Saturday evening, uncertaintycontinues with the overall evolution of the mid-upper system,associated surface low, as well as lower level thermal profiles.Until the parent shortwave(s) move ashore Wednesday night throughThursday for sampling by the RAOB network, confidence is too lowto make a call either way on this. While the cold dense Arctic airmass in place to start the period certainly does not preclude asurface low track cutting over the area, still wonder if thesystem will be forced a bit southeast of some of the more wrappedup operational and ensemble solutions, resulting in mainly asnowier outcome for areas north of I-80.With this being said, the warm advection surge in advance of thesurface low will continue to provide an impressive air massexchange, with enough warming aloft to possibly result inprecipitation type concerns creeping in from the south aftermidnight Friday night. This includes the possibility of freezingrain and sleet along/south of I-88. On Saturday, boundary layerwarming will likely be enough for a change to plain rain in eastcentral Illinois and along/south of the Kankakee River in Indiana.Much colder air will then sweep across the area Saturday afternoonbehind the system, transitioning any mixed precipitation back tosnow by Saturday evening. If the slower ECMWF comes closer toverifying Saturday night, will need to raise PoPs from currentforecast to account for system`s deformation axis pivoting acrossthe area and providing at least light snow accums area wide. Thiswould occur as a ~1040 mb high spreads southeast from the NorthernPlains, so increasingly windy conditions and blowing/drifting snowcould also be an issue Saturday evening and night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Chicago special Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 It is to point that we actually see snow falling from the sky to believe any model around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Chicago specialReverse psych? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Reverse psych?Blizzard warning for all of Nebraska. Does that work for reverse psych? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Wait till it's sampled by Thursday and I'll be excited then if trends continue 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Chicago keeps on winning. That's the irritating part. Kinda feeling the burn of last system where we were forecasted 5-8" by the NWS and came out of it with nothing to show. We still don't have it nearly as bad as the Nebraskans however. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Reverse psych?Unless the thing wraps up I think a SE trend is likely to continue because of the arctic airmass in place We are still good for 6-10 or so tho with the WAA snows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Unless the thing wraps up I think a SE trend is likely to continue because of the arctic airmass in place We are still good for 6-10 or so tho with the WAA snowsGotcha I agree on the second part. Unless it wraps up I think the 2nd piece could be underwhelming Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Positive news: no snow to move, no slipping on the ice, drivers can drive normally. Who am I kidding, I want some snow for Christmas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Chicago keeps on winning. That's the irritating part. Kinda feeling the burn of last system where we were forecasted 5-8" by the NWS and came out of it with nothing to show. We still don't have it nearly as bad as the Nebraskans however.Thought your area did better but saw Cedar Rapids official was 3.1 for the last storm. I remember when I was at university of Iowa it seemed that the amped up storms always were already east of IC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Positive news: no snow to move, no slipping on the ice, drivers can drive normally. Who am I kidding, I want some snow for Christmas.The other thing is we stay out of the absolute deep freeze. I love snow, but HATE the brutal cold! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.