January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Spicy

epic

[MossMan]

[chinook]

DPs crashing. Very intense snow shower at this point.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Trace to about an inch here in Salem depending on the part of town.

[Deweydog]

"Just wait 'til next year!"

 

-Chicago Cubs fans until last fall

[FroYoBro]

I'm missing the fun by just a few miles so far. 

[Jesse]

"Just wait 'til next year!"

 

-Chicago Cubs fans until last fall

Dont stoke the weenie flames. It's only early January.

[Kayla]

Trace to about an inch here in Salem depending on the part of town.

 

Definitely have some nice accumulations downtown there, nice surprise!

 

[chinook]

"Just wait 'til next year!"

 

-Chicago Cubs fans until last fall

Cleveland Browns purchased the rights. Heard PNW weather contingency group came close.

[Deweydog]

Dont stoke the weenie flames. It's only early January.

That was supposed to be a positive affirmation. If the Cubbies can win the WS, we can score a high in the 20's.

[Front Ranger]

My brother near Salem is reporting just a trace.

[Goducks09]

Definitely get some nice accumulations downtown there, nice surprise!

 

 

Wow!  A little unexpected.

[TT-SEA]

Mt Si from our front window right now... love this weather!

 

[Jesse]

That was supposed to be a positive affirmation. If the Cubbies can win the WS, we can score a high in the 20's.

Works for me. Although I think 2-4" inches of snow would better sate most here.

[Jesse]

Getting reports of sleet from the South Salem Hills.

[Deweydog]

Works for me. Although I think 2-4" inches of snow would better sate most here.

Well from a broad perspective I'd say the last 24 hours have overperformed with respect to snowfall. Unfortunately PDX/Vancouver just have the most to overcome in these setups.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Getting reports of sleet from the South Salem Hills.

Trollololol

[Jesse]

Well from a broad perspective I'd say the last 24 hours have overperformed with respect to snowfall. Unfortunately PDX/Vancouver just have the most to overcome in these setups.

Definitely.

[epiceast]

Getting reports of sleet from the South Salem Hills.

Nothing to see here, just the overrunning event is 3 days ahead of schedule.

[dairyd]

So far the Fraser river outflow has failed to even produce a freeze on parts of southern Vancouver island. Lots of gusty 33F reading around the Capital region.

 

The models I've looked at since Saturday showed the arctic front not moving the cold air in until tonight.  It looks delayed now half a day or so.  Front temps are moving into S BC, Hope has lost 5* since midnight with 5* dewpoint with the cold air filtering south.  I hope the NAM is wrong, forecast single digit lows for Abbotsford tomorrow night.  That air is already up the Fraser and Coquihalla.  Looks like it is spilling through into Omak and Spokane valley as well. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

[MossMan]

[Kayla]

Will it survive??

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nothing to see here, just the overrunning event is 3 days ahead of schedule.

That was an inside "joke " directed at me.

[Kayla]

Nothing to see here, just the overrunning event is 3 days ahead of schedule.

 

Yeah, this just got real interesting...

[Perturbed Member]

Will it survive??

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-02 at 10.56.06 AM.png

Please...

[umadbro]

Will it survive??

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-02 at 10.56.06 AM.png

A lot of it isn't reaching the ground North of Woodburn

[Kayla]

A lot of it isn't reaching the ground North of Woodburn

 

You sure about that??

 

[Front Ranger]

DP at BLI down to 4. They had a gust to 51 earlier, currently gusting to 44.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I can smell a big over running event coming to the hood canal in 4 or 5 days.

[umadbro]

You sure about that??

 

Screen Shot 2017-01-02 at 11.01.22 AM.png

100% positive Kayla. I live in Newberg.

[Kayla]

Best part about this is that the NWS has zero products out.

[Kayla]

100% positive Kayla. I live in Newberg.

 

So not Woodburn but Newberg. You're still north of that main band.

[Goducks09]

Best part about this is that the NWS has zero products out.

 

Good - they need to sit this one out...maybe for a few days.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Best part about this is that the NWS has zero products out.

They better not jinx this

[epiceast]

That was an inside "joke " directed at me.

That was my follow-up joke on top of his.

[ShawniganLake]

After your coldest December since when?

2008

[epiceast]

Probably the best band, as seen on radar, is headed straight for PDX-TTD area. We'll see if it can overcome the east wind in an hour.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

So far the Fraser river outflow has failed to even produce a freeze on parts of southern Vancouver island. Lots of gusty 33F reading around the Capital region.

 

This has turned out far less impressive than initially modeled. The upper level cold was watered down about 3C and seems to have taken longer than expected to get here, and the lower level cold took even longer. Even the BC interior has failed to experience the cold we'd typically expect with a significant Arctic blast. It's too bad the activity that was showing signs of development over the Strait fizzled out in the outflow; anything that fell would have stuck around for the week. The outflow has sublimated nearly all the snow that fell the previous night. Looking at the 500mb pattern alone I'd never have guessed things would end up as warm as it did, it certainly hurt our chances for getting any snow along the boundary. Feels much more like a typical snowless inland slider.

[crf450ish]

I still can't believe the most positive optimistic person on here got screwed yet again. I feel his pain. I used to get my hopes up all the time when I lived in Puyallup. Let down after let down.

 

On the other hand, this January is performing far better so far than the last 3 consecutively.