January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

 Not realistic, especially down here.

 

 

It will be interesting to see how this plays out... maybe Portland and the basin just stay chilly at the surface.   

[Kayla]

It will be interesting to see how this plays out... maybe Portland and the basin just stay chilly at the surface.   

 

Yeah have a really hard time believing the east side cold pool gets scurried out as much as the WRF shows. It's pretty established and will most likely only continue to strengthen into Saturday morning.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/925mb/925mb_sf.gif?1448231956339

[Jesse]

12z GFS puts us into a nice little fake cold period next weekend. I'd take it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel that GEM ZR output is overdone for most areas. Highly doubt I get half an inch of zr here.

[Brennan]

Northern end of Lake Whatcom is frozen. Skid a rock across the ice about 200 yards. My life is complete.

[Kayla]

I feel that GEM ZR output is overdone for most areas. Highly doubt I get half an inch of zr here.

 

Agreed.

[bainbridgekid]

Northern end of Lake Whatcom is frozen. Skid a rock across the ice about 200 yards. My life is complete.

Awesome.

 

How long's it been since you could do that?

 

And how much snow is there on the ground at lake level?

[MossMan]

Northern end of Lake Whatcom is frozen. Skid a rock across the ice about 200 yards. My life is complete.

90% of Lake Goodwin is also now frozen over as well! What are your thoughts on this weekend and next weeks possible snow for us noth enders?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I honestly have no idea how this weekend will play out, probably something between January 04 epic ness and dec 09 weak sauce

[Kayla]

Wow, Bozeman is running a -26 departure so far this month. PDX's -8 departure all of sudden doesn't seem all that exciting!

[Deweydog]

I honestly have no idea how this weekend will play out, probably something between January 04 epic ness and dec 09 weak sauce

Tough call, but I'd lean at this point toward this being primarily a west hills east setup for anything prolonged.

[ShawniganLake]

Wow. Gfs would absolutely bury the hood canal and north sound. Should be some happy people if that verified.

[bainbridgekid]

I'm assuming no one has mentioned it because we are all burnt out on snow events shown 120+ hours out, but the 12z GFS shows a nice snowstorm for Tuesday night-Thursday of next week.

 

I remember the days when a run like this would get people excited....

Solutions that rely on a low tracking perfectly just to our South like that a week out are never going to generate too much excitement.

 

The much more likely solution will be that low tracking too far North for everyone but maybe Whatcom County / BC in my opinion.

 

The possibility is certainly there for something big just about anywhere, but a lot of things would have to break just right. Especially the further South you go.

[Timmy Supercell]

-7 degrees this morning in Klamath Falls. That was 5-6 cooler than forecast. Maybe -14 to -16 tomorrow?

[MossMan]

I'm assuming no one has mentioned it because we are all burnt out on snow events shown 120+ hours out, but the 12z GFS shows a nice snowstorm for Tuesday night-Thursday of next week.

 

I remember the days when a run like this would get people excited....

I'm not burnt out...I'm excited! Great chance of scoring something substantial finally!

[Kayla]

Tough call, but I'd lean at this point toward this being primarily a west hills east setup for anything prolonged.

Yeah definitely not expecting to go above freezing until late Monday morning at the earliest up here.

 

Dew points have recovered a bit, will be interesting if they plummet again Friday night and what the effect of that would be to the longevity of the event for PDX metro area.

[Jesse]

Wow. PDX hit 17.

 

New January benchmark for this century.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Solutions that rely on a low tracking perfectly just to our South like that a week out are never going to generate too much excitement.

 

The much more likely solution will be that low tracking too far North for everyone but maybe Whatcom County / BC in my opinion.

 

The possibility is certainly there for something big just about anywhere, but a lot of things would have to break just right. Especially the further South you go.

Exactly... Way to far out and way to close to being a miss. Even 24 hours out on a borderline setup like this is really tough to predict. So, at this point I can lean toward a wait and see view. Based on recent history, averages, and the setup I highly expect it to bust or be a northern event only. Low expectations but hopeful!!

[Kayla]

That low is a lot stronger at hour 60 compared to the 00z euro last night... Will it curve further offshore?

[Blizzard777]

This weekends event (PDX) knows nothing of the past. This scenario that will play out will be unique with its own set of variables. I've been caught off guard too many times when I used to live down here. The Gorge is an awesome weather machine and I absolutely love the uncertainty going into these overrunning events. Meanwhile in Federal way we will roll over quickly with no fight.

[Front Ranger]

I'm assuming no one has mentioned it because we are all burnt out on snow events shown 120+ hours out, but the 12z GFS shows a nice snowstorm for Tuesday night-Thursday of next week.

 

I remember the days when a run like this would get people excited....

 

Model overload/burnout.

[Deweydog]

Yeah definitely not expecting to go above freezing until late Monday morning at the earliest up here.

 

Dew points have recovered a bit, will be interesting if they plummet again Friday night and what the effect of that would be to the longevity of the event for PDX metro area.

Offshore flow ahead of the system will be a gap wind, which usually doesn't really redry the air mass, just maintains a lower dew point profile.

[Kayla]

Wow. PDX hit 17.

 

New January benchmark for this century.

 

Nice! And a new record low for the date.

[Randyc321]

I'm assuming no one has mentioned it because we are all burnt out on snow events shown 120+ hours out, but the 12z GFS shows a nice snowstorm for Tuesday night-Thursday of next week.

 

I remember the days when a run like this would get people excited....

 

It still gets me excited. 

 

Our weather is too sketchy to actually know what is going to happen even 24 hours out in some cases to not hold out some hope of verification.

 

Besides that a s**t load of snow!

[HighlandExperience]

[Perturbed Member]

12z Euro wants to give PDX 3-4 inches this weekend.

[Kayla]

12z Euro wants to give PDX 3-4 inches this weekend.

 

Was just going to say... The whole column stays below freezing until early Sunday morning now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Okay so the lows from this morning are in.

 

PDX hit 17! Coldest January low since either 82' or 84' I will have to check. Eugene checked it 13!

 

Astoria 22

SLE     21

HIO     15

KVOU  15

Medford 14

The Dalles 5

Pendleton 0

Hermiston -4

Klamath Falls -9 (Ties record)

La Grande -9

Burns -11

Baker City -24 (Breaks record of -22 set in 1950)

Meacham -28

[Front Ranger]

Wow. PDX hit 17.

 

New January benchmark for this century.

 

Nice. 

 

SEA, in their usual decoupling suckiness, couldn't hit 20 even with snow cover. McChord hit 10, and a good other number of places bottomed out in the 10-13 range, so a fairly impressive event overall. Top 2 coldest January temps many places for the 21st century.

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Then there is this...

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
432 AM PST THU JAN 5 2017

CORRECTION...

...RECORD DAILY LOW AT HOOD RIVER...

AT 4 AM...TEMPERATURE AT HOOD RIVER WAS 1 DEG ABOVE ZERO.

THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD LOW FOR JAN 5...WHICH WAS 3 DEG
ABOVE ZERO IN 2004.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow. Gfs would absolutely bury the hood canal and north sound. Should be some happy people if that verified.

Yep,

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, PDX broke their record low by 2 degrees. Way to pick off some low hanging fruit!

 

The 13 at Eugene broke their record low of 14 set in 1924. 

[Timmy]

Was just going to say... The whole column stays below freezing until early Sunday morning now.

The return of the king?

[Brennan]

[BLI snowman]

Nice! And a new record low for the date.

 

Yep, first record low in January at PDX since 1982.

 

A great weight has been lifted off our shoulders.

[Kayla]

Offshore flow ahead of the system will be a gap wind, which usually doesn't really redry the air mass, just maintains a lower dew point profile.

 

This is a great point and totally didn't even think about that. So even with 850mb east side cold pool of -14c you think the dew point profile there will still not be enough to dry us out anymore than we currently are?

[Kayla]

Wow, PDX broke their record low by 2 degrees. Way to pick off some low hanging fruit!

 

The 13 at Eugene broke their record low of 14 set in 1924. 

 

First record low set at PDX since....??

[HighlandExperience]

Looking regionally (which can be really hard to do) many have been more than "teased". Even in regard to record breaking snowfall.

I agree. I'm thinking more of the populated areas. Most of us have been disenfranchised. I'm calling the young turks!

[Jesse]

Wow, PDX broke their record low by 2 degrees. Way to pick off some low hanging fruit!

 

The 13 at Eugene broke their record low of 14 set in 1924.

Low hanging or not, this is their first January record low in 35 years. Nice to get that monkey off our backs.