ShawniganLake Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Actually some interesting ensembles there toward the end.Hmm. SE ridge too! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 This looks somewhat interesting, even if it is a bit on the warm side. Could mean wet snow for some northern areas and pretty stormy conditions for coastal areas if it came to pass. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011800/gfs_T850_nwus_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 got almost 3" of rain today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Actually some interesting ensembles there toward the end.One could say this is progressing exactly as we would hope at this stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 I just can't come to grips with suffering through 3 years of torching and then being denied snow in one of the colder Dec - mid Jan periods on record. Unimaginably frustrating. I hear ya. As flukey as it gets. But as was the case for Portland...one big storm can change everything. This winter may still redeem itself for you, regardless of what it could have been if everything worked out perfectly. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 I long ago realized I could never live somewhere it never snowed. Agreed. San Diego, Miami, New Orleans, Puyallup...could never do it. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Game on!! Haha. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DE1482B3-AAE1-488F-BC5D-C86CE1CE76D0_zpslnv0wa9q.png 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Agreed. San Diego, Miami, New Orleans, Puyallup...could never do it.It can snow in New Orleans. December 1963 was niiice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Epic anticyclonic wavebreak/developing -EPO on the LR Canadian, with the PV far away over Eurasia. Looks like the entire NPAC/W-Canada domain is an unobstructed surf zone. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 One could say this is progressing exactly as we would hope at this stage.February 8 will be bonkers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Epic anticyclonic wavebreak/developing -EPO on the LR Canadian, with the PV far away over Eurasia. Looks like the entire NPAC/W-Canada domain is an unobstructed surf zone. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 It can snow in New Orleans. December 1963 was niiice. Depressing. Something your weenie appetite would never taste again, if you kept living there. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 It can snow in New Orleans. December 1963 was niiice. A Nino special. Personally, I would take Feb 1895. Or 1899. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 A Nino special. Personally, I would take Feb 1895. Or 1899.They even had a little in December 2008. Also the last time Puyallup had snow, I believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 They even had a little in December 2008. Also the last time Puyallup had snow, I believe. I believe the first part. Not the second...seems too recent. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 34 at PDX. Dewey wins again. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 34 at PDX. Dewey wins again. I bet its really only 33. Intra-hour obs have C to F rounding issues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 50 degrees and rain here. No idea how long it has been since that has happened, but such a normally regular occurrence has been quite rare this winter. Feels warm. My snow is all but gone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 A few very cold ensemble members showing up now. Let's hope something is able to come together for early February. At ANY RATE THE ECMWF IS VERY MUCH ON BOARD FOR A big inversion next week. Looks like it could be a good one. Another very interesting thing to note on the models is the amazing lack of cold air over the Eastern half of the country about 5 or 6 days from now. Even a huge chunk of SE Canada has 850s above zero. That could be a good thing after the block retrogrades there could be a treasure trove of cold air to tap into for us. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Ironically I'm now one of the cooler places around tonight. Only 42 degrees. Still pretty unlikely it will go without hitting 50 here at some point over the next 2 or 3 days. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 South wind is always noticeable here, as it's the only direction I'm not sheltered from. Otherwise it's generally always calm here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 For some dumb reason, it never occurred to me that the reason why it felt so freezing cold at 65 degrees inside my house when it was 10 degrees outside was that there was a super low dew point. Now that the DP has gone way up, 65 degree inside temp feels fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 The WRF is looking pretty chilly again early next week with lows shown below freezing again. Can't emphasize enough how perfect it's looking for a major inversion next week. This could be a solidly cold month when all is said and done. Still liking our chances for early Feb. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 The WRF is looking pretty chilly again early next week with lows shown below freezing again. Can't emphasize enough how perfect it's looking for a major inversion next week. This could be a solidly cold month when all is said and done. Still liking our chances for early Feb.Feeling better about early Feb after seeing ensembles hint at the Alaskan ridge? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Another very interesting thing to note on the models is the amazing lack of cold air over the Eastern half of the country about 5 or 6 days from now. Even a huge chunk of SE Canada has 850s above zero. That could be a good thing after the block retrogrades there could be a treasure trove of cold air to tap into for us.The troughing will start in the central/eastern states, then try to retrograde west. Exactly how far west it's able to retrograde is still uncertain. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Feeling better about early Feb after seeing ensembles hint at the Alaskan ridge? The ECMWF ensemble control model shows a textbook retrogression with a cold trough by day 13. The ensemble mean has a decent positive center around the Aleutians. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Let's keep this going: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Right now the trend is our friend. Much more robust positive center to our NW by early Feb. The control model gets really cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Let's keep this going: Things might be coming together for something very good. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 I'm not a huge fan of the 00z EPS. Overall, too far west/southwest with that NPAC ridge/EPO, so verbatim that's an unfavorable pattern for poleward WAFz..PV/NAM would reconsolidate and the cold would slide east of the Rockies for the most part. Most important/necessary features are the Eastern European ridge, and the +WPO/NE-Siberian vortex..both are lacking somewhat on the 00z EPS mean. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4EBBC2F6-0B64-44CC-911A-773DE0C8E7A1_zpsdxw0nhby.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 I could certainly go for about a week long fogversion and then a big blast. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 I'm not a huge fan of the 00z EPS. Overall, too far west/southwest with that NPAC ridge/EPO, so verbatim that's an unfavorable pattern for poleward WAFz..PV/NAM would reconsolidate and the cold would slide east of the Rockies for the most part. Most important/necessary features are the Eastern European ridge, and the +WPO/NE-Siberian vortex..both are lacking somewhat on the 00z EPS mean. At least it's on the right track. As I said the control nails us. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 At least it's on the right track. As I said the control nails us.That's three runs in a row that've trended poorly, FWIW. The control run out 15 days is meaningless, at least relative to the ensemble mean (and verbatim the control run is close to being problematic as well). A broad ridge along/south of the Aleutians is a wave dispersion regime. This loads the +EPO/+NAM very efficiently, especially at this time of year. Goes to show how unstable the upcoming transition will be. Really won't take much to screw it up, or to make it go big. All with consideration(s) to the short nature of the window (closes in mid-February). 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 That's three runs in a row that've trended poorly, FWIW. The control run out 15 days is meaningless, at least relative to the ensemble mean (and verbatim the control run is close to being problematic as well). A broad ridge along/south of the Aleutians is a wave dispersion regime. This loads the +EPO/+NAM very efficiently, especially at this time of year. Goes to show how unstable the upcoming transition will be. Really won't take much to screw it up, or to make it go big. All with consideration(s) to the short nature of the window (closes in mid-February). 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Any ice in town should be gone now. We had a "evening high" of 41. Occasionally it rained. Now off/on showers, upper 30's and a mini gust storm (but a moderate one at that). Looks like it could last for hours. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 40 degrees and no wind in Tualatin. 10 miles SSW in Newberg, it's 53 and gusting to 20. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Any significant ice damage in PDX?Not really. Most places were just a couple of degrees too warm. Only places right near the river and east got any decent icing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Any significant ice damage in PDX?Sounds like Eastern Wa has had quite the night! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Any significant ice damage in PDX?My dad sent me a pic around 7pm in Vancouver last night with icicles hanging from trees. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Up to 55 at SLE. Warmest temp since November I believe. A torch at some point was inevitable, at least this one will be fairly short lived. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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