gosaints Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Interesting-- Wonder what that means for us north of the low? Obviously fast movers aren't good for anyone, but I don't necessarily want sleet.Its not a fast mover by any means just ejects faster than the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Effing A http://newenglandwxforum.invisionzone.com/uploads/monthly_01_2017/post-7-0-52957300-1484245707.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Looks great. Hopefully no wind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Effing A http://newenglandwxforum.invisionzone.com/uploads/monthly_01_2017/post-7-0-52957300-1484245707.pngHoly balls that's a lot of ice. Any snow after that?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 I don't know. That's the only map I've seen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Most of the 12z models (have not checked the Euro) were off to varying degrees in placement of the 32F line valid at 18z. Too far northwest compared to reality. May give some credence to colder solutions over the weekend but we'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Most of the 12z models (have not checked the Euro) were off to varying degrees in placement of the 32F line valid at 18z. Too far northwest compared to reality. May give some credence to colder solutions over the weekend but we'll see.Yep, many locations are running a good 5-6F colder right now than the models are showing. From the sounds of it, the 12z Euro did the same thing. Whether or not that translates to anything this weekend is the million dollar question. Would have some major implications obviously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Yep, many locations are running a good 5-6F colder right now than the models are showing. From the sounds of it, the 12z Euro did the same thing.Would have to think that ice storms are quite rare in the twin cities Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Would have to think that ice storms are quite rare in the twin citiesHighly unlikely. Doubt I see much precip at all. No reasoning behind that, just a hunch. Still cool to track this storm though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Ice storm warnings are up and posted. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORMWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CSTSUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEING ACCUMULATINGFRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE BYSUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL HASISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAYTO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGERIN EFFECT.* TIMING...LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAYMORNING...WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOONOR EVENING.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE MULTI-DAYPERIOD OF ONE-QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 North Platte hoisted watches, expect the rest of the northern fringe of this storm to do the same very soon. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY AFTERNOON.* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING FROMSOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING...EXPANDING INCOVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.* WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHTINTO MONDAY. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Mkx downplaying bug time...maybe .25 of ice nut feel mostly liquid is the way to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Wow, well the GFS gives us plain rain, hardly any ice even. looks weird to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 GFS mostly rain for Central and southern Iowa. I'll take that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 GFS has a bad handling of lower level cold. Hopefully it's right though. I'm still expecting plain rain btw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 WSW for eastern Nebraska: WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATEMONDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA/VALLEY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATEMONDAY NIGHT.* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF EASTERNNEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA ON SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE INTOMONDAY. THE FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET ANDSNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. FREEZING RAIN IS MORE LIKELYALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHILE MORE OF A MIX ISEXPECTED NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE. TOTAL ICEACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ANINCH IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE ALONG ANDSOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACHOVER 4 INCHES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHILE REMAINING CLOSER TO ANINCH OR SO NEAR THE INTERSTATE.* MAIN IMPACT...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO ICY OR SNOW-PACKED ROADSIS LIKELY. SIDEWALKS AND PARKING LOTS WILL BE VERY SLIPPERY ASWELL. SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 This is going far north IMO. I've been saying this for days now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 This is going far north IMO. I've been saying this for days now.Doubt it man. The models are underplaying the cold we're experiencing right now, I think we're in for it. To each their own though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 You know a storm is coming when everyone rushes to the grocery store to get milk ,eggs and flour. It's like everyone bakes bannock and watches Little house re-runs.... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 The models show the main surface low passing by my area not until 96+ hours from now. I'm thinking there may be more surprises ahead before then... Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 Less FZRA on the GFS last several runs-- most recent 00Z GFS Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 There goes the SN-- UP, UP and AWAY to the dakotas!! (trending that way) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 By far the warmest of the models. Skeptical of that especially in high snow cover areas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 True-- and 33 -34 F is not really going to help much with as cold as the surface has/will be during the event until later on--- QPF on GFS is trending up. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 My forecast for Lincoln is looking pretty good right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 I don't buy the gfs at the moment. No real reason for me not to other than I just think it's too warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 Even if it is warmer ground temps are in the mid to upper 20's around here so it will still spell a disaster. There is really no out at this point imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 GEM is not as pretty as the GFS... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 Oh wow the gem just blasts Iowa with ice. .75" for Iowa city Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 GEM- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 2m temps on the GFS don't even get above 32F until 18z on Thursday here now. So much for the highly anticipated January thaw. Might not even get above freezing at all if another few inches of snow fall on top of the 9" that fell this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 Curious to see what NAM shows as we get closer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 What's the Euro showing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 The trend continues on the Euro. Less precip for Central Iowa... here are DSM numbers. Will post others in a minuteSUN 18Z 15-JAN -0.8 2.0 1029 64 87 0.00 568 545 MON 00Z 16-JAN -1.5 3.0 1025 86 97 0.02 567 547 MON 06Z 16-JAN -1.7 5.4 1023 94 53 0.13 567 549 MON 12Z 16-JAN -0.9 6.8 1019 98 85 0.02 566 551 MON 18Z 16-JAN 3.7 7.5 1015 99 48 0.20 564 551 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 5.9 7.3 1011 97 49 0.06 561 552 TUE 06Z 17-JAN 7.7 6.0 1009 99 29 0.01 559 551 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 4.1 3.4 1007 98 41 0.00 554 548 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 3.2 2.0 1008 75 42 0.00 550 544 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 Lincoln, NE:SUN 06Z 15-JAN -2.4 1.5 1032 44 95 0.04 570 545 SUN 12Z 15-JAN -3.4 1.9 1030 81 86 0.07 569 546 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -2.8 3.5 1027 88 95 0.04 568 547 MON 00Z 16-JAN -2.8 5.1 1023 95 98 0.29 567 548 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.2 6.5 1020 98 96 0.12 566 550 MON 12Z 16-JAN -1.0 7.2 1015 99 96 0.20 562 551 MON 18Z 16-JAN 4.5 5.3 1010 99 42 0.15 558 549 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 6.0 4.6 1007 99 95 0.04 554 548 TUE 06Z 17-JAN 2.4 0.9 1007 98 93 0.09 548 543 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -3.4 -1.5 1010 87 69 0.01 549 541 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 0.5 -3.0 1012 58 66 0.00 550 540 OMAHA:SUN 06Z 15-JAN -2.0 0.4 1032 28 90 0.00 569 544 SUN 12Z 15-JAN -2.6 0.9 1030 63 88 0.02 568 545 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -1.8 2.7 1027 79 97 0.01 568 547 MON 00Z 16-JAN -2.1 4.5 1024 93 97 0.20 566 548 MON 06Z 16-JAN -1.7 5.1 1021 96 90 0.23 566 550 MON 12Z 16-JAN -0.5 7.6 1016 98 97 0.09 564 551 MON 18Z 16-JAN 5.1 6.5 1011 98 27 0.22 560 550 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 6.7 5.4 1008 98 82 0.04 556 549 TUE 06Z 17-JAN 6.2 2.6 1006 100 77 0.07 552 547 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -0.6 0.5 1008 91 41 0.00 548 542 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 0.8 -2.3 1011 61 67 0.00 549 541 Columbus, OLU, NESUN 12Z 15-JAN -2.8 0.5 1029 52 89 0.00 568 545 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -2.6 2.2 1027 77 93 0.00 568 547 MON 00Z 16-JAN -3.0 3.6 1023 93 100 0.16 565 547 MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.9 4.7 1021 96 98 0.22 565 548 MON 12Z 16-JAN -2.2 6.1 1016 96 95 0.11 562 550 MON 18Z 16-JAN 0.6 4.8 1012 99 25 0.30 557 547 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 0.9 3.9 1009 99 97 0.06 552 545 TUE 06Z 17-JAN -0.5 0.1 1008 96 97 0.31 547 540 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -4.5 -3.3 1010 87 67 0.09 547 539 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -2.0 -2.7 1012 71 72 0.00 549 540 WED 00Z 18-JAN -3.3 -1.9 1012 82 66 0.00 551 541 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 Here's KC for those interested. Go Chiefs I suppose on Sunday!SUN 00Z 15-JAN -0.4 5.5 1033 38 77 0.00 575 549 SUN 06Z 15-JAN -2.0 4.7 1032 80 98 0.12 574 549 SUN 12Z 15-JAN -2.0 5.0 1029 90 97 0.18 572 550 SUN 18Z 15-JAN -1.1 6.5 1027 94 83 0.16 572 551 MON 00Z 16-JAN -0.6 5.9 1023 98 40 0.03 570 552 MON 06Z 16-JAN 1.1 7.8 1019 99 79 0.02 568 553 MON 12Z 16-JAN 7.1 9.2 1013 97 73 0.15 565 555 MON 18Z 16-JAN 11.2 7.2 1011 92 25 0.06 563 554 TUE 00Z 17-JAN 10.9 7.6 1008 96 29 0.02 560 554 TUE 06Z 17-JAN 5.6 5.8 1009 92 33 0.00 558 551 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just like I thought awhile ago-- a Dakotas special!! UP, UP and AWAY!! An Aberdeen bullseye. . Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 DMX going with .10-.25 of ice for my area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 so thankful it has trended to a mainly rain event here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 13, 2017 Report Share Posted January 13, 2017 Valley NWS has lowered ice amounts to .1-.2" and switching to rain by noon Monday. In the end I'm glad we're not having a major ice storm, but stupid goddamn rain in January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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