Dave Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 That's a tasty fork.I'm pretty sure I've seen the last of winter down here. Looks like areas from PDX north still have a decent chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 I do have to admit the ECMWF and its ensemble show some promise and are decidedly better than 24 hours ago. Maybe there's a chance. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Not sure about timing... have not gone through the details. But a huge improvement on the 00Z ECMWF. Total snow through next Tuesday afternoon... D**n, even the Pacific ocean is gonna get more than the Willamette valley this time. Punishment for the last event? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Pretty breezy north winds this evening here, which is very rare for my wind sheltered location. 32 degrees at the moment.Strongest east wind I have ever seen here yesterday and last night, finally got power back around 1am. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 WOW 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 WOWYeah. No kidding. Way south. I don't even come close to transitioning to rain thru next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Talking about living on the edge lately! Wow! 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Massive improvement...Which was foreshadowed in the 06z ensembles... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 This is a big snow storm about Kelso north! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 12z is about 7 steps in the right direction. Colder and way further South with Sundays low which allows early next week to be much colder. Nice snowstorm for Puget Sound Sunday night and Monday. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Snow level PDX south looks to be just off the valley floor in the 500-1000' range on this run. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 The model riding isn't done yet! I am rooting for everyone up in Washington! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 The wild ride contiues, the 12z GFS is golden and the GEM looks like it's shaping up nicely so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Wow, looks like another medium range model disaster turns favorable once again. Have had many of those this season and after the mid range flip they have verified and even improved leading up to the event. Good sign for next week. 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 The NAM still hasn't got the memo: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017020212/namconus_T850_nwus_53.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 The wild ride contiues, the 12z GFS is golden and the GEM looks like it's shaping up nicely so far.The GEM has Sunday nights storm off Northern California. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Canadian continues the trend. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Canadian continues the trend. It is even further south than the latest GFS and gives Oregon the goods too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 GEM gives a serious snowstorm to south Willamette valley maybe. Low is even further south than the GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Wow, looks like another medium range model disaster turns favorable once again. Have had many of those this season and after the mid range flip they have verified and even improved leading up to the event. Good sign for next week.Yeah amazing how many times the models have followed this progression this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 The GEM has Sunday nights storm off Northern California. The details on the GEM don't look as good. The rule of the winter up here has been to hope for a northward trend, because just about everything significant has gone south. In this case I'm not so sure jet supression is going to be as great an issue as cyclogenisis, I get the feeling that Sunday low is going to want to bomb out and will probably run a bit north of where the models settle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 The details on the GEM don't look as good. The rule of the winter up here has been to hope for a northward trend, because just about everything significant has gone south. In this case I'm not so sure jet supression is going to be as great an issue as cyclogenisis, I get the feeling that Sunday low is going to want to bomb out and will probably run a bit north of where the models settle.Could be. Sure a giant jump in the models this morning. Wonder what the Euro has in store. WRF is very generous with the snow up here tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 12Z GFS would be awesome for the Puget Sound. Sunday afternoon and night could be similar to the big snowstorm in Portland a few weeks ago. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 12Z GFS would be awesome for the Puget Sound. Sunday afternoon and night could be similar to the big snowstorm in Portland a few weeks ago. It would definitely make Super Bowl parties more entertaining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Unbelievable GFS and GEM model runs so far this morning. The trend is our friend again. All eyes on you now UKMET and EURO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_16.png Strange map. Snowing pretty much all along the OR coast with temps near freezing even at PDX and 0c or colder aloft but all rain there. That is close to a perfect track for you guys up north though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Could be. Sure a giant jump in the models this morning. Wonder what the Euro has in store. WRF is very generous with the snow up here tomorrow. The 12z WRF doesn't even show a trace of snow over Victoria, Bellingham or Seattle over the next 48 hours. Tomorrow will be another test of that model's reliability; all signs point to some sort of overrunning event if the WRF proves it wrong I'll definitely give more credence to its snowfall predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 The models will continue to struggle in the medium and long term, going forward. Don't give up on anything yet. ^^^^^^^^^^^ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_16.png Strange map. Snowing pretty much all along the OR coast with temps near freezing even at PDX and 0c or colder aloft but all rain there. That is close to a perfect track for you guys up north though. That map is actually showing rain at the Oregon coast, but snow up in the coast range. It would basically be a pattern for snow in the hills, a mix on the valley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 ^^^^^^^^^^^Phil, Phil, Phil.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Sure hope the Seattle area finally gets this snow monkey off its back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Gem is a gem 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Remember the average high a PDX is now about 50 so we are quite cool this week Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Not to spread false hope but there is still a chance things trend favorable again IMO. We have had several big model heartbreak nights his winter only to have things ultimately trend colder later on. Although maybe not quite as spectacular as originally advertised.^^^^^^^^^^^^ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 ^^^^^^^^^^^^Well now what? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Well now what?I think you still don't realize that I was directly mocking a post of yours a few weeks ago when I said that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 I think you still don't realize that I was directly mocking a post of yours a few weeks ago when I said that. I may have to send you a bleeding heart PM over it. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 The WRF is fun to look at. Showing 2 feet here by Saturday night and still snowing heavily. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Wrf has sucked this winter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 2, 2017 Report Share Posted February 2, 2017 Wrf has sucked this winterI know. I can dream. Would be a repeat of January 2005 here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.