February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

I'm really surprised it still shows it being rain at hour 66 with heights that low,

Gradients are southerly. Should be a 500-700 foot snow level.

[Kayla]

Gradients are southerly. Should be a 500-700 foot snow level.

 

Meh, closer to 550' IMO.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

If the 0z GFS is to believed almost no one will see a substantial snowfall (except maybe Nanaimo and higher elevations further south).

[Deweydog]

Meh, closer to 550' IMO.

Those folks at 538' are gonna be mighty disappointed.

[luminen]

The snow is still coming down and has actually gotten a bit heavier. I'm thinking it won't change to rain at all here, at least for tonight and tomorrow morning.

[Kayla]

Those folks at 538 are gonna be mighty disappointed.

 

They should have known better to build a two story. Suckers.

[luminen]

It's 32F in McMurdo, Antarctica right now. Same as here. 

[Brennan]

BLI is still reporting snow.

You have to drive 20 miles east before you hit snow. I drove all around this county today. From my place in north bellingham (NE of BLI) all the way out to Deming, up highway 9 to Sumas, then up Sumas Mountain on South Pas Road. Was 32 degrees the entire way until I rounded the corner to the east going up the hill when it dropped to 31 and sleet/rain changed to sleet/snow ans the NE wind was howling. When I got to 542N in kendal it was all snow and 29 and probably a 10-15mph wind. My Mother in Law lives out there. It dumped snow from about 4:30 to 6 when we left. They had probably a solid 3" on the ground and all roads were compact snow and ice. On the way back we went south towards maple falls and around that way back to town. Snow changed to sleet/rain EAST of deming....

 

So yeah, it's not snowing in Bellingham...

[Deweydog]

Hasn't snowed here in weeks.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like there's some potential there for a rare Juan de Fuca strait-effect snow Monday into Tuesday. The last ones that come to mind are Nov 2010 and Nov 2006.

[BLI snowman]

You have to drive 20 miles east before you hit snow. I drove all around this county today. From my place in north bellingham (NE of BLI) all the way out to Deming, up highway 9 to Sumas, then up Sumas Mountain on South Pas Road. Was 32 degrees the entire way until I rounded the corner to the east going up the hill when it dropped to 31 and sleet/rain changed to sleet/snow ans the NE wind was howling. When I got to 542N in kendal it was all snow and 29 and probably a 10-15mph wind. My Mother in Law lives out there. It dumped snow from about 4:30 to 6 when we left. They had probably a solid 3" on the ground and all roads were compact snow and ice. On the way back we went south towards maple falls and around that way back to town. Snow changed to sleet/rain EAST of deming....

 

So yeah, it's not snowing in Bellingham...

 

Been that kind of a winter, outlying towns in Whatcom County have had a of 32 degree snow while Bellingham has been rain.

[Kayla]

Looks like the 00z GEM is still on team Emerald City.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like there's some potential there for a rare Juan de Fuca strait-effect snow Monday into Tuesday. The last ones that come to mind are Nov 2010 and Nov 2006.

I don't know how the details work with that... but obviously those were true arctic blasts and this is not.

[Jesse]

Been that kind of a winter, outlying towns in Whatcom County have had a of 32 degree snow while Bellingham has been rain.

 

Is BLI far away from Bellingham proper or something?

 

I just did a quick webcam tour up there and it looks like there is snow on the ground a lot closer to Bellingham than 20 miles.

[Front Ranger]

I've reached my breaking point for this winter I think. I let the weather affect me more than it should, and Brennan, Mattias, and Phil have had to listen to me b*tch way too often. Since I've started watching the models back in 2010, this winter has disgusted me the most. Not due to the lack of snow, but how the lack of snow has been achieved. It's not like we haven't had chances, or that the models haven't shown some great storms, it's that in the end, they continue to f*ck us over and over. The new south trend the models decided to collectively develop this year has truly been a disappointment for many. The rich get richer.

 

I hope I'm just a jinx, because maybe leaving the forum for a while will bring the members that deserve some snow a little luck. Good luck everyone

 

Two forum drops in one day.

[Deweydog]

I'm REALLY taking a break from the forum, guys.

 

Happy VD and St. Patrick's Day!

[Deweydog]

Any word on the NAVGEM? JMA?

[Perturbed Member]

00z GEM is all about Washington snow. Nearly nothing PDX south.

[HighlandExperience]

00z GEM is all about Washington snow. Nearly nothing PDX south.

Gem looks awesome for western wa and lower mainland. People should be happy. I expect Euro to be the same.

[BLI snowman]

Is BLI far away from Bellingham proper or something?

 

I just did a quick webcam tour up there and it looks like there is snow on the ground a lot closer to Bellingham than 20 miles.

 

BLI is on the north end of town, but it appears they just had sleet at best for most of the day. They definitely weren't getting snow. The webcams showed the snow this afternoon all falling north of Ferndale. 

[Bham_Guy]

Is BLI far away from Bellingham proper or something?

 

I just did a quick webcam tour up there and it looks like there is snow on the ground a lot closer to Bellingham than 20 miles.

 

That is what's left of the 3/4" of snow that fell this morning.

[HighlandExperience]

I like how the 00z NAM is further North than the 18z. Hopefully that is the start of the little trek North and the 06z will follow suit.

 

Euro needs to hold strong.

Gem buries us.

[MossMan]

Looks like there's some potential there for a rare Juan de Fuca strait-effect snow Monday into Tuesday. The last ones that come to mind are Nov 2010 and Nov 2006.

Those were epic for me.

[BLI snowman]

GFS has been showing the weak southerly flow being an issue down here on Sunday afternoon. Gradients don't go flat until the precip is almost over, presumably due to that low hanging off the WA coast. Temps don't drop too much.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sounds like the GEM really sucks. Hopefully its off on its own.

[Perturbed Member]

We're about 36 hours out and still have pretty big differences between some models. GEM shows a huge event everywhere north of PDX. NAM shows an equally large event from PDX south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right now I am completely discounting the GEM as an outlier. 

[MossMan]

I don't know how the details work with that... but obviously those were true arctic blasts and this is not.

I got 16" pre Arctic front, and 2" when the front rolled thru...in 2006.

[Deweydog]

Right now I am completely discounting the GEM as an outlier.

That's big.

 

Typically you're not much a homer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's big.

 

Typically you're not much a homer.

 

This was my Rob post of the night. Sponsored by Bassaholic records.

[Timmy Supercell]

I love these high snow levels. I thoroughly enjoyed the time I spent outside in the mid 40's with off/on showers. Some moderate rain even. 

 

High of 46 today at KLMT. It seems though I may have gotten more rain than the airport as their only measurable precip was this morning. But we had a decent amount of afternoon rain up the hill. I'd go with a number between 0.10" - 0.15" here.

 

The pack in the yard is going down quite a bit now. 2-3" in the majority of the yard. Some few spots of 5" or so.

[BLI snowman]

Sounds like the GEM really sucks. Hopefully its off on its own.

 

Similar to the GFS in that it takes a lot longer to cool the column. Good track and precip rates though.

[HighlandExperience]

Redemption on the Gem

[FroYoBro]

Right now I am completely discounting the GEM as an outlier.

Lol. It's not an outlier. Just one possibility out of many.

[Perturbed Member]

GFS has been showing the weak southerly flow being an issue down here on Sunday afternoon. Gradients don't go flat until the precip is almost over, presumably due to that low hanging off the WA coast. Temps don't drop too much.

Is this a new development on the 00z or has this been on the last few runs? That low to the NW is nothing new so I assume all runs had it?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I don't know how the details work with that... but obviously those were true arctic blasts and this is not.

 

You need outflow coming off the island and wrapping back into the Juan de Fuca, if the low is moving south it can enhance the instability and create a band of convergence over the Strait leading to big snow falls on which ever part of the shoreline it gets caught up on. It's pretty rare because you need an Arctic airmass with onshore flow (too much fetch and it won't align with the Strait or will be too warm, too little fetch and you can't get an organized band of precip). The upper level temperatures aren't as ideal this time around, but it happens so infrequently I'm not sure what sort of thresholds are needed to get it started.

[BLI snowman]

Is this a new development on the 00z or has this been on the last few runs? That low to the NW is nothing new so I assume all runs had it?

 

Every GFS run has shown this. It's had us around 39-40 on Sunday afternoon with a light south wind and heavy precip, while some other models have had us 32-33 with calm winds and heavy precip. Just accounts for why the operational GFS has had such meager totals for most of us.

[FroYoBro]

The WRF shows it turning to sticking snow right around sunset Sunday for the Portland area. Still at odds with the operational GFS.

[Perturbed Member]

Every GFS run has shown this. It's had us around 39-40 on Sunday afternoon with a light south wind and heavy precip, while some other models have had us 32-33 with calm winds and heavy precip. Just accounts for why the operational GFS has had such meager totals for most of us.

Interesting that the WRF and RPM are much more aggressive than the GFS for cooling us down. Wonder if it's a resolution issue. Those two models do rely heavily on the GFS.

[Heavy Snow]

Here is the track the 00z UKMET takes.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif