February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

They may cancel it without snow. They teetered on cancelling yesterday but settled on a delay.

 

Did you have any ice?

 

My gut tells me we will truly be on the edge tomorrow into Monday. Probably a lot of frustratingly wet snow with temps a degree or so too warm. Media hype still might spook them into cancelling, though.

[Front Ranger]

So what time do you foresee the snow starting for say...northern Snohomish Co?

 

The latest 3km NAM says wet snow starts around the Seattle area around 10 am tomorrow and spreads north from there.

[snow_wizard]

Yea I hope it starts during the day time. What time you thinking?

 

Maybe as early as tomorrow morning.  Tough call.

[MossMan]

Hopefully what my dogs will be thinking about soon...

[FroYoBro]

Did you have any ice?

 

My gut tells me we will truly be on the edge tomorrow into Monday. Probably a lot of frustratingly wet snow with temps a degree or so too warm. Media hype still might spook them into cancelling, though.

I still think most people will wake up with some snow on the ground early Monday morning. 

 

I'm guessing my location will see a ridiculous amount of 34 degrees rain tomorrow afternoon. Might be able to pick something up at night though. 

[snow_wizard]

Absolute madness.

 

There might be some of that going on already.

[Timmy]

Timmy is going to get an insane amount of snow.

And this of course would be when I am at the beach for the weekend. Although it looks like rockaway will get in on the action

[luvssnow_spokane]

Temps have been shooting up here quickly... 50 and climbing... If we did not have weather models we would have no idea this was coming. Then again it could be just cold rain.

[TT-SEA]

The WRF continues to advertise impressive CAA for the Seattle area Monday morning. Seems very possible being on the back side of a departing surface low.

Will not happen. Upper 30s on Monday and Tuesday.

[snow_wizard]

Temps have been shooting up here quickly... 50 and climbing... If we did not have weather models we would have no idea this was coming. Then again it could be just cold rain.

 

We're just in the warm sector now.  Only 43 here.

 

Just the sat pic is enough to know it's going to get colder.

[James Jones]

I still think most people will wake up with some snow on the ground early Monday morning. 

 

I'm guessing my location will see a ridiculous amount of 34 degrees rain tomorrow afternoon. Might be able to pick something up at night though. 

 

Your location or my location?

[FroYoBro]

Up to 50 here. Feels like snow.

[Heavy Snow]

The northern shift on the 3km NAM has cut the PDX snow totals quite a bit due to the mid day rain switch over.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017020418/nam3km_asnow_nwus_44.png

Yeah lower than the nearly 2 feet it was showing on the 12z run but it's still showing close to 15" by Monday 4am. What gives me confidence is that the 3KM version did the best with snow totals for the January 10th and 11th snowstorm. In cases like this, the highest resolution model is the way to go. The 00z runs will be critical tonight.

 

http://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam3km/2017020418/042/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

[MossMan]

Temps have been shooting up here quickly... 50 and climbing... If we did not have weather models we would have no idea this was coming. Then again it could be just cold rain.

Only 39 here with moderate rain.

[Front Ranger]

Will not happen. Upper 30s on Monday and Tuesday.

 

Careful...not every situation is the same. Depending on where the low tracks, how strong it is, and how much precip during the day, temps could easily stay 35 or below for almost all of Monday. 

 

There might be a situation where there's a lull and the temp spikes to the upper 30s for an hour or two, but that wouldn't necessarily reflect the day as a whole.

 

And it's not like there isn't cold air nearby to draw from this time.

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah lower than the nearly 2 feet it was showing on the 12z run but it's still showing close to 15" by Monday 4am. What gives me confidence is that the 3KM version did the best with snow totals for the January 10th and 11th snowstorm. In cases like this, the highest resolution model is the way to go. The 00z runs will be critical tonight.

 

http://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam3km/2017020418/042/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

Agree, the 3km has been good this winter. It should not be discounted within 36 hours.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Getting into the satellite watching hours of this event; things continue to look good for the South-Central Sound and dismal for the North. Hopefully what it's showing further north busts and some of that stuff actually wraps back around. Could be a rare situation where Seattle is seeing heavy snow while Victoria/Bellingham end up with light rain and drizzle. Just a little more offshore digging could go a long ways.

[BLI snowman]

They may cancel it without snow. They teetered on cancelling yesterday but settled on a delay.

Your side of the county will likely get shafted, so no worries for you.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah lower than the nearly 2 feet it was showing on the 12z run but it's still showing close to 15" by Monday 4am. What gives me confidence is that the 3KM version did the best with snow totals for the January 10th and 11th snowstorm. In cases like this, the highest resolution model is the way to go. The 00z runs will be critical tonight.

 

 

The 3km NAM has been good within close range, but even it did not forsee what happened on Jan 10/11. I think the last run before the storm showed maybe 3-6" for Portland metro.

[Jesse]

Up to 50 here. Feels like snow.

 

PDX is still around 40. Same with here. Pretty impressive.

[Jesse]

Your side of the county will likely get shafted, so no worries for you.

 

Outside of the portion directly in the Gorge, SE Clark County kind of sucks.

[MossMan]

Getting into the satellite watching hours of this event; things continue to look good for the South-Central Sound and dismal for the North. Hopefully what it's showing further north busts and some of that stuff actually wraps back around. Could be a rare situation where Seattle is seeing heavy snow while Victoria/Bellingham end up with light rain and drizzle. Just a little more offshore digging could go a long ways.

Going to be very interesting to see how all of this unfolds...

[TT-SEA]

Careful...not every situation is the same. Depending on where the low tracks, how strong it is, and how much precip during the day, temps could easily stay 35 or below for almost all of Monday.

 

There might be a situation where there's a lull and the temp spikes to the upper 30s for an hour or two, but that wouldn't necessarily reflect the day as a whole.

 

And it's not like there isn't cold air nearby to draw from this time.

It will be slow to clear out and there is no real cold air coming in.

 

It will be sloppy.

[BLI snowman]

Outside of the portion directly in the Gorge, SE Clark County kind of sucks.

Yeah, the hills near Camas do fine but otherwise you tend to get both the icky downslope winds and the occasional warm tongues.

[bainbridgekid]

Yeah, the hills near Camas do fine but otherwise you tend to get both the icky downslope winds and the occasional warm tongues.

One of my best friends lives at 400 feet in Camas and he only got 3" with the big storm 3 weeks ago.

 

I kept telling him what was going on in the rest of Portland, but he was still shocked when he had to drive to Hillsboro the next day.

 

He's training to be a pilot and said the view the next few days was absolutely incredible. He didn't appreciate just how rare the deep snow and clear skies was though.

[BLI snowman]

The 3km NAM has been good within close range, but even it did not forsee what happened on Jan 10/11. I think the last run before the storm showed maybe 3-6" for Portland metro.

It did in fact show the 10-12" stuff but kept it just west of the city.

[Front Ranger]

The latest 3km NAM says wet snow starts around the Seattle area around 10 am tomorrow and spreads north from there.

 

Actually, looking at this closer, it appears the main band holds off until at least noon, maybe 1. This is tomorrow around noon.

 

[Jesse]

One of my best friends lives at 400 feet in Camas and he only got 3" with the big storm 3 weeks ago.

 

I kept telling him what was going on in the rest of Portland, but he was still shocked when he had to drive to Hillsboro the next day.

 

He's training to be a pilot and said the view the next few days was absolutely incredible. He didn't appreciate just how rare the deep snow and clear skies was though.

 

Yeah, just a short jaunt east from my place and totals dropped off dramatically for the January 10-11 event.

[luminen]

Drinking some French red wine and watching the snow fall again. It looks like it'll get quite heavy in a few minutes. 

[Kayla]

The 3km NAM has been good within close range, but even it did not forsee what happened on Jan 10/11. I think the last run before the storm showed maybe 3-6" for Portland metro.

 

I actually remember quite vividly that the 12z 3km NAM showed 8-10" for the PDX area on the morning of the 10th. Still ended up on the low end!

 

It's done really well this year.

[bainbridgekid]

Yeah, just a short jaunt east from my place and totals dropped off dramatically for the January 10-11 event.

For all the talk about the Gorge down there, it's kind of amazing how many setups favor the West side of town.

 

Here's a picture he took from the plane a couple days after the snowstorm.

 

[Deweydog]

Your side of the county will likely get shafted, so no worries for you.

12-14-08 me while you score a 12-1-07.

 

Lame.

[Front Ranger]

It will be slow to clear out and there is no real cold air coming in.

 

It will be sloppy.

 

Cold enough for sticking snow.

 

Once winds turn around to the north tomorrow, I do think people will see the temps drop pretty quickly.

 

Can't really compare this event to anything else this winter, at least for the Puget Sound region.

[TT-SEA]

For all the talk about the Gorge down there, it's kind of amazing how many setups favor the West side of town.

 

Here's a picture he took from the plane a couple days after the snowstorm.

 

16009902_10154281005371586_1732283029_o.jpg

Cold air damming.

[BLI snowman]

One of my best friends lives at 400 feet in Camas and he only got 3" with the big storm 3 weeks ago.

 

I kept telling him what was going on in the rest of Portland, but he was still shocked when he had to drive to Hillsboro the next day.

 

He's training to be a pilot and said the view the next few days was absolutely incredible. He didn't appreciate just how rare the deep snow and clear skies was though.

They haven't done too well this winter, maybe 6-7" total in Camas. 17" here across the county.

[Front Ranger]

I actually remember quite vividly that the 12z 3km NAM showed 8-10" for the PDX area on the morning of the 10th. Still ended up on the low end!

 

It's done really well this year.

 

Yes, but the 12z run was not the last run before the storm. 18z was.

 

You're right that it definitely hinted at major potential before the storm, and has done really well overall.

[bainbridgekid]

They haven't done too well this winter, maybe 6-7" total in Camas. 17" here across the county.

Yeah and he said the ice hasn't even been that bad there.

 

Several storms have had quite a bit of ice down by the river but had trouble getting much of any accretion at his house at 400 feet.

[TT-SEA]

Cold enough for sticking snow.

 

Once winds turn around to the north tomorrow, I do think people will see the temps drop pretty quickly.

 

Can't really compare this event to anything else this winter, at least for the Puget Sound region.

Oh... its going to be fun to watch tomorrow. Be this thinking it will be real cold afterwards is not accurate.

[Jesse]

They haven't done too well this winter, maybe 6-7" total in Camas. 17" here across the county.

I'm sitting at about 11" for the winter.

[BLI snowman]

12-14-08 me while you score a 12-1-07.

 

Lame.

1-5-82 with a bit of 12-19-64. Snow.