March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Snowing and 34 now.

[epiceast]

EURO not really on board. 

Yea Euro is definitely rain on MY parade.

[ShawniganLake]

Snowing and 34 now.

Sticking yet?

 

Picked up about 1/4" here with flurries.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Sticking yet?

 

Picked up about 1/4" here with flurries.

 

Still a whole lot of nothing in Victoria. The nearly westerly flow right now isn't even a strong shadowing direction but none of these showers have any staying power once they hit the VI landmass. Could also be that there's some sort of divergence going on where the Strait opens up and that's tearing the showers apart. This certainly isn't the first time I've noticed it.

 

I'm starting to think our best shot for snow may once again fall on the Monday in the form of some sort of cold secondary low. It sure seems to have happened a lot this year.

[Skagit Weather]

33F and snowing here under the convergence zone. Temp is dropping like a rock.

[Skagit Weather]

Just a few snowflakes in the air (Burlington).

 

[ShawniganLake]

Still a whole lot of nothing in Victoria. The nearly westerly flow right now isn't even a strong shadowing direction but none of these showers have any staying power once they hit the VI landmass. Could also be that there's some sort of divergence going on where the Strait opens up and that's tearing the showers apart. This certainly isn't the first time I've noticed it.

 

I'm starting to think our best shot for snow may once again fall on the Monday in the form of some sort of cold secondary low. It sure seems to have happened a lot this year.

I like the chances for at least an inch or 2 up here on Sunday morning.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I like the chances for at least an inch or 2 up here on Sunday morning.

 

The advertised deformation zone that's been showing up in the GFS and now in some of the mesoscale models early Sunday morning is pretty promising. But based on how things things have gone with these in the past I'd still say it has a high bust potential for Victoria; your location will do better with terrain enhancement and being a bit further north. It is looking better than the one last Sunday morning so far.

[Timmy]

I'd hate to bet against the euro but one model is going to be dead wrong up here in the next 48 hours, euro shows about 2", hires wrf shows over 12"

[Brennan]

Really curious how much snow South Lake Whatcom area has... and Wickersham. Steady snow for the past 3 hours per radar. 

[Karl Bonner]

Wow.  GFS has plenty of cold onshore flow headed our way for the next 10 days or so.  This could bury the foothills in areas around 1600 feet.  I'm considering removing the fork.

 

My yard and lawn are still completely dormant.  Nothing growing at all.  I haven't seen that for years this late in the year.

 

Hey everyone - I'd like to see some yard/lawn/tree photos from west of the Cascades, to judge how far delayed this spring season is gonna be.  (How do you upload photos from your computer?)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'd hate to bet against the euro but one model is going to be dead wrong up here in the next 48 hours, euro shows about 2", hires wrf shows over 12"

 

WRF is completely out to lunch. It was showing 2-4" here today by 4pm, no way. There wont be accumulating snow here before this evening. The airmass isn't even cold enough for snow here until about 8-9am this morning. WRF is showing 16-20" here by the time this is over. Probably won't get over half that. 6-8" is most likely. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey everyone - I'd like to see some yard/lawn/tree photos from west of the Cascades, to judge how far delayed this spring season is gonna be.  (How do you upload photos from your computer?)

 

I will upload a pick of my daffodil progress later.

 

Sn/sleet mix and 33.

[ShawniganLake]

29F with flurries. About 1/2" overnight.

[Jesse]

Hey everyone - I'd like to see some yard/lawn/tree photos from west of the Cascades, to judge how far delayed this spring season is gonna be. (How do you upload photos from your computer?)

Just gently turn your computer upside down and shake it softly, loosening up desired contents and dumping them into this website.

 

Make sure this site is directly underneath you computer when you do this, preferably set up on a table or something, or else the pictures might get all over the floor.

[Timmy]

WRF is completely out to lunch. It was showing 2-4" here today by 4pm, no way. There wont be accumulating snow here before this evening. The airmass isn't even cold enough for snow here until about 8-9am this morning. WRF is showing 16-20" here by the time this is over. Probably won't get over half that. 6-8" is most likely.

I just woke up to a light dusting... wasn't expecting anything until tonight.

[MossMan]

Sticking yet?

 

Picked up about 1/4" here with flurries.

Never ended up sticking other than a slight slush coating on my deck. Now it's just cloudy and 35.

[MossMan]

Taking a stroll around Facebook this morning it appears we have snow on on the ground on Camano Island, around Mt Vernon, and around the town of Snohomish.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just woke up to a light dusting... wasn't expecting anything until tonight.

 

The 528 thickness line made it through your area probably around 4-5am. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday night/Monday morning still looking good for snow to the surface. GFS and RPM are on board at least. 

 

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_12z.jpg

[crf450ish]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What the GFS continues to advertise would be historic for the 2nd week of March.

[MossMan]

Sun is now shining through the clouds, feels good on my face.

[snow_wizard]

My mind is blown! The GFS continues to advertise the second (and deeper) wave of cold weather late next week. Many locations were up there with the coldest Dec - Feb since 1968-69 and now we could be on course for a very cold March. It's just like somebody flipped the switch from warm to cold on December 1. The only period that really compares for such drastic shifts with such little notice is the 1930s. Really exciting stuff! The remainder of this decade has potential for greatness IMO.

[Bryant]

Woke up to 3" new, although temp is rising fast. Up to 37° and snowing currently

[snow_wizard]

What the GFS continues to advertise would be historic for the 2nd week of March.

Really incredible. Very rare company if it happens. 1867, 1870, 1897. No doubt we have entered a regime we haven't seen for a very long time. Even the mean position and shape of the mid winter blocking was just different.

[snow_wizard]

Woke up to 3" new, although temp is rising fast. Up to 37° and snowing currently

Wow! I figured your early bad luck was just a fluke. I sure hope we can score down here.

[Bryant]

Wow! I figured your early bad luck was just a fluke. I sure hope we can score down here.

Seen quite a few overnight snowfalls lately in the 2-4" range, but it's gone by days end unfortunately

[ShawniganLake]

Woke up to 3" new, although temp is rising fast. Up to 37° and snowing currently

Nice! Ended up with just over 1" here. Seems like your location is starting to perform a little more to your liking.

[Kayla]

My mind is blown! The GFS continues to advertise the second (and deeper) wave of cold weather late next week. Many locations were up there with the coldest Dec - Feb since 1968-69 and now we could be on course for a very cold March. It's just like somebody flipped the switch from warm to cold on December 1. The only period that really compares for such drastic shifts with such little notice is the 1930s. Really exciting stuff! The remainder of this decade has potential for greatness IMO.

 

As much as I'd love to see the pattern progression of the GFS, it has, and continues to have zero agreement amongst the other models.

 

Until the Euro/GEM gets on board I'm afraid this is all just dreams.

[HighlandExperience]

Wow! I figured your early bad luck was just a fluke. I sure hope we can score down here.

 

Hope we can get one more decent snowfall down here. Would really make this winter special. 

[snow_wizard]

As much as I'd love to see the pattern progression of the GFS, it has, and continues to have zero agreement amongst the other models.

 

Until the Euro/GEM gets on board I'm afraid this is all just dreams.

Hard to ignore the ensemble agreement. If it wasn't for that I would quite skeptical.

 

The WeatherBell snowfall show a ridiculous 12 to 14 inches of snow for King County over the next 10 days. We certainly have a decent shot at one of the all time snowiest Feb - Mar on record form many areas.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As much as I'd love to see the pattern progression of the GFS, it has, and continues to have zero agreement amongst the other models.

 

Until the Euro/GEM gets on board I'm afraid this is all just dreams.

 

This is true.

[snow_wizard]

Hope we can get one more decent snowfall down here. Would really make this winter special.

At this point we have multiple chance in the believable range. I would be amazed if we ended up with none.

[Kayla]

Hard to ignore the ensemble agreement. If it wasn't for that I would quite skeptical.

 

The WeatherBell snowfall show a ridiculous 12 to 14 inches of snow for King County over the next 10 days. We certainly have a decent shot at one of the all time snowiest Feb - Mar on record form many areas.

 

Yet the Euro shows 2-4" over the next 10 days with good ensemble support. Long ways to go to get to the GFS level of greatness.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF shows the coast getting slammed this weekend.  Really impressive.  Looks like good snow threats for the Central Puget Sound late tonight and late tomorrow night.  Right now my money is on very early Monday morning.

[FroYoBro]

The WRF gives Portland some pretty good snow Sunday night/Monday morning. That time period looks like our best shot for lowland snow.

[HighlandExperience]

Hard to ignore the ensemble agreement. If it wasn't for that I would quite skeptical.

 

The WeatherBell snowfall show a ridiculous 12 to 14 inches of snow for King County over the next 10 days. We certainly have a decent shot at one of the all time snowiest Feb - Mar on record form many areas.

 

You mind posting the wxbell map?

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the 700mb and 850mb level winds over the next 48 hours King County won't have to worry about being blocked by the Olympics.  Good news!

[Jesse]

As much as I'd love to see the pattern progression of the GFS, it has, and continues to have zero agreement amongst the other models.

 

Until the Euro/GEM gets on board I'm afraid this is all just dreams.

Yup, right now the GFS is on its own with a semi- historic pattern. Would be nice for the other models to jump on board.