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December 2022 Observations and Discussion

Iceresistance

By Iceresistance
in East of the Rockies

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mlgamer
mlgamer
westMJim
westMJim

Here is todays snow depth in my back yard. I will try to get some more pictures tomorrow 

Tom
Tom

The Euro Weeklies basically corrected to showcase the high lat blocking and an active storm track....cold and snow, let's do this...

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chescowxman Proficient

chescowxman

Posted
Posted
Rain will end this AM. We have picked up 1.51" of rain and melted snow so far along with the 0.3" of snow/sleet yesterday. Of note with this event we have now exceeded our normal annual rainfall here in Chester County of 50.21". It looks likely we will now have colder than normal weather to close out 2022. The exception could be if the east coast storm next week tracks like the latest European model is showing. In that case we would have a brief warmup and change any brief snow to rain next Thursday into Friday. The models will change again many times before then.
The record high for today is 67 degrees set in 1971. The record low is also the earliest seasonal record of a below zero reading as on this date in 1917 we fell to 1 degree below zero. Record rain is the 1.80" today in 1902. Our record snow was just 2 years ago when we received 7.3" of snow.
image.png.5293db179512375dedc1aa20541a2e45.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

FSD officially reported 3 inches yesterday which brings our December total up to 12.1, 3.4 inches higher than our average December snowfall. This is the most snow that has fallen in December since 2015, when 19 inches fell. Difference then was Christmas had 0 snow on the ground while we are pretty much guaranteed to have a white Christmas.

You must be tickled with excitement and finally getting to experience what a true Upper MW winter feels like.  Your in for a long stretch of winter weather.  Stark contrast to the PNW wx you've lived through.  Enjoy it!

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Posted
8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Coastal low just gets yanked well inland by the very deep negatively tilted trough.

floop-ecmwf_full-2022121600.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif.2b571cad6b1319637566ebaba52e246f.gif

Kind of like what I posted wrt the Nov 1950 storm, but a bit further N at least verbatim on that run. I'd like to see more of the EPS members showing snow to go along with the Op Bomb(s). Looks like majority are NOT on board with such an outcome for the E Lakes

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
Just now, tStacsh said:

The ICON would be one of the most epic cold push/storm front of all time lol 

Don't be afraid to post images

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Tom said:

Euro Weeklies = Extended Winter conditions into JAN...seeing a lot of similarities with all the global models (JMA, CFSv2, CFS and Euro)....all pointing towards an Eastern CONUS trough heading into mid & late JAN.

image.gif

Per JB, when the Greenland block happens, the E CONUS will get about 3 wks of favorable conditions then the shift back takes place as the pattern retrogrades west and the Cross-Polar flow gets pinched.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

The 12z Canadian is nearly identical to the ICON, a radical change in the 500 mb flow compared to runs over last last few days.

The GFS is more of the same, leading to an east-coast bomb.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Not gonna happen but nice to see! 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh105-138.gif

 

9 minutes ago, Bellona said:

I just know the ICON and GDPS are trolling me right now. I'd be more than happy with what GFS shows though as well!

So, Euro way east for days, now some like ICON and GEM way west. Just our usual 1000 mile spread on SLP location for a major event. Keeps all eyes interested at least

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

Posted
Posted

I must say I'm getting a little more excited as the Icon, gem and GFS all show good snows for most of us. Now hopefully the EURO comes back to the west and we should be good, right?!? RIGHT?! .😄 

GFS more aggressive with the first wave on Monday and turns the second wave into an east coast bomb. 

The ICON AND GEM are stronger with the second wave and cut the trough over the Great Lakes. 

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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The UK is with the ICON/GDPS.

Just take a look at how wildly different the GFS and UK are at only day four.

GFS

image.thumb.png.99b385460fe6699598e73528b96a58ac.png

UK

image.thumb.png.472fd9f812f90e24cf999c72208abda6.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Will be curious to see if the Sunday model runs help curtail the radical model shifts.  The main energy for the storm will be over Alaska then.

That kind of puts this into perspective, wait until Sunday to see if that helps, which is still 48+ hours away and even then we have another 72+ hours before the storm hits.  So yeah a lot left to be decided here with this one.  If I get at least 3" and a White Christmas, I won't complain too much.  

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Hoosier Mentor

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Kind of like what I posted wrt the Nov 1950 storm, but a bit further N at least verbatim on that run. I'd like to see more of the EPS members showing snow to go along with the Op Bomb(s). Looks like majority are NOT on board with such an outcome for the E Lakes

1950 was an extreme example of it with the surface low going from the coastal Carolina area to northern OH.

It would be fun to see a 1950 system unfold in this era.  Really the 1993 superstorm and that are the two most severe storms (not including tropical/hybrid tropical systems) to impact the eastern US in the 20th century in my opinion.

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