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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

The Blob

By The Blob
in West of the Rockies

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MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

Best birthday present possible. 

T-Town
T-Town

As others have noted, there’s something about sun on snow…

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

A bit over 3/4" as the grass is almost covered. Not bad. More than I expected.

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

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Posted
Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I hear you man. My ex-brother in law got ALS and died at 29. I didn't know him all that well, but sometimes I wish I could have traded places with him. He never got to have a career he could be proud of, have kids, or really live his life. I'm not that old, but if I were to die tomorrow, I would be okay with my life. We aren't promised anything, we just assume. 

That's awful I am sorry. I lost my Dad 10 years ago to ALS. A horrific evil disease. Where has time gone. A decade? It's like we've been living in an alternative universe. Lost my brother in June. Still not coping with it. I'm 50 myself, and it just puts everything in a very clear perspective. This holiday season is rough, just have my Mother who sadly is declining now I think my brother passing has just taken too big of a toll on her. I see her fading every day with her memory and so on. It's killing me. Trying to be positive and had my nephew here today to decorate the house for Christmas. Thankfully all three of us were in good spirits today, enjoying each other, trying to make the best of it all. I just don't know and the future is very depressing. Since June I have been just very lost and destroyed. I have to find joy in life again somewhere. Thankful for this weather forum, all you weather geeks and geekstresses, and of course my PDX WX Analysis group on Facebook. I enjoy all of that tremendously and it is also a good distraction from things.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

GFS wants to keep us cold forever!  That thing around the 10th or so looks great on this run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That's awful I am sorry. I lost my Dad 10 years ago to ALS. A horrific evil disease. Where has time gone. A decade? It's like we've been living in an alternative universe. Lost my brother in June. Still not coping with it. I'm 50 myself, and it just puts everything in a very clear perspective. This holiday season is rough, just have my Mother who sadly is declining now I think my brother passing has just taken too big of a toll on her. I see her fading every day with her memory and so on. It's killing me. Trying to be positive and had my nephew here today to decorate the house for Christmas. Thankfully all three of us were in good spirits today, enjoying each other, trying to make the best of it all. I just don't know and the future is very depressing. Since June I have been just very lost and destroyed. I have to find joy in life again somewhere. Thankful for this weather forum, all you weather geeks and geekstresses, and of course my PDX WX Analysis group on Facebook. I enjoy all of that tremendously and it is also a good distraction from things.

Brother I promise you that happiness will return.  After my wife died I truly thought I would never feel happy again, never smile or laugh. It returns. We lost a child 2 months ago and my fiancée is coming around, smiling and feeling better. It takes time but it will get better buddy.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Cold night up at the property in chesaw. 

Screenshot_20221201-204636_Reolink.jpg

I love it when the snow sparkles like that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
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Posted

Really solid 00z GFS and GEM runs. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Brother I promise you that happiness will return.  After my wife died I truly thought I would never feel happy again, never smile or laugh. It returns. We lost a child 2 months ago and my fiancée is coming around, smiling and feeling better. It takes time but it will get better buddy.

You have such a great attitude considering the pain you have been through. 

  • Like 8

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

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Posted
Just now, snow_wizard said:

I love it when the snow sparkles like that.

It looks so cool when it snows over there when it is below zero. The snow looks like diamonds falling from the sky. I've had heavy snow there at -5.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I have been really good, I do not look past 120 hrs anymore.  Makes no sense. 

Incredible discipline.  Past day 7 or so I just look for strong signals and trends.  That thing around the 10th is really gaining momentum.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

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Posted
1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You have such a great attitude considering the pain you have been through. 

It's the way I was raised,  if it gets tough you get tougher. Keep your head up and keep moving forward.  Never fall back fall forward. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It looks so cool when it snows over there when it is below zero. The snow looks like diamonds falling from the sky. I've had heavy snow there at -5.

We get that sparkly snow here sometimes.  When it does that you know it's real.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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Poulsbo Snowman Proficient

Poulsbo Snowman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Brother I promise you that happiness will return.  After my wife died I truly thought I would never feel happy again, never smile or laugh. It returns. We lost a child 2 months ago and my fiancée is coming around, smiling and feeling better. It takes time but it will get better buddy.

I couldn't imagine not having my wife of 37 years around.  We are two peas in a pod.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really solid 00z GFS and GEM runs. 

I had a hunch we might be on a good road, but seeing it actually happening (at least for now) is awesome.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Brother I promise you that happiness will return.  After my wife died I truly thought I would never feel happy again, never smile or laugh. It returns. We lost a child 2 months ago and my fiancée is coming around, smiling and feeling better. It takes time but it will get better buddy.

You've been through so much buddy. I am sorry. I guess focusing on those we still do have with us and finding things we enjoy. Thank you, I appreciate what you've said here and I do hope it comes back. Soon.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Wow what a run!  It will be interesting to see if this round of new stuff holds in future runs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted

31F and clear with about 0.5” of snow. Winter already looking good!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 16F (Jan 30, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 60 (Most recent: Mar 27, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: Enough to give the winter an A
  • Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

And yet another cold shot mid month!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Down to 28 here.  Falling a bit slower than I thought it would but still cold.  Bellingham is at 18 and Lytton at zero.  The BC cold factory just keeps giving!

Some real cold in place east of the Cascades now.  The easterly gradients coming up are going to keep us cold.

  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Brother I promise you that happiness will return.  After my wife died I truly thought I would never feel happy again, never smile or laugh. It returns. We lost a child 2 months ago and my fiancée is coming around, smiling and feeling better. It takes time but it will get better buddy.

You're the kindest person on here my friend. You and your family will be stronger and always keep lifting one another's spirits. Thank you for showing such graciousness and I'm truly heartbroken to see what you've been through, I'm so sorry. Y'all deserve mother nature's snow gifts more than any of us.

  • Like 6

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 16F (Jan 30, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 60 (Most recent: Mar 27, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: Enough to give the winter an A
  • Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Down to 28 here.  Falling a bit slower than I thought it would but still cold.  Bellingham is at 18 and Lytton at zero.  The BC cold factory just keeps giving!

Some real cold in place east of the Cascades now.  The easterly gradients coming up are going to keep us cold.

Should be a record low at BLI today. Tomorrow is pretty low-hanging fruit as well at 20.

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bishbish777 Enthusiast

bishbish777

Posted
Posted

Some of the models are still pretty moist for tomorrow's system, which would theoretically bode well for snow in the lowlands. The UKMET, for example, has .6" of QPF in the Seattle area.

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

And yet, almost none of that is considered "snow" by the model. Part of it is surface temps slightly above freezing. But I was also looking at the WRF-GFS, and there is a distinct warm-nose up the valley.

slp.30.0000.gif

I haven't seem temps discussed much regarding tomorrow's system, but some of the models with higher QPF are not outputting snow, and I wonder if temps are more marginal than we would assume with the current airmass.

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Cascadia_Wx Grand Master

Cascadia_Wx

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Pretty clear at this point that the default/background state for this winter is not going to be warm. There was a point where a warmup / switch to SW flow was forecast in late November and it pretty much fell apart. Reminds me of the multiple warmups forecast through April/May that ended up being one or two days before it went right back to cold.

It’s December 1st.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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jcmcgaffey Community Regular

jcmcgaffey

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I assume schools will be closed here tomorrow because there is snow on the ground.   😀

The Snoqualmie Valley school district goes through the same routine every year.   Early in the season they are shut down happy.    Then by later in the season they stay open through everything because they have run out of snow days.   I remember driving my kids to school in a blizzard one year... 40 mph wind whipping snow around and roads snow covered but the district was worried about going to school until almost July.  

Seattle schools already go till after the 4th of July this school year because of the teachers strike. 

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  • The Blob changed the title to PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.
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