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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

00z runs will be very telling for tomorrow up there.

It’ll definitely be a good event on the kitsap peninsula and hood canal…east of the sound? Hard to tell right now. The euro is still showing snow for a lot of places along the I-5 corridor west. Even so it’s a pretty marginal chance but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a trace-0.5”. 

2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF... the Sunday snow keeps inching northward.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-0241600.png

You gotta be impressed with how many ways this troll low manages to give the finger to western OR. On Friday it is too far offshore to hit OR but the orientation of that band allows the precip to hit western WA while missing all of OR. 

Over the weekend the low is down by CA and the wrap around manages to reach up to WA where it drops decent precip but it magically doesn't drop much over OR. 

Biased troll low. 

image.png.170299b47b16307974749d0738537cbf.png

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My mind is just blown that the models are solid on at least another week of cold.  Totally making up for the epic July 10 through Oct 20 torch.  It has actually gotten to the point where the majority of recent winters have had at least something decent to offer.  Since 2015-16 only 2019-20 was really lame, and even it had some goodies.

As an interesting aside...I clearly remember the 1980s and there were not as many snowstorms that decade as we have seen over the past 10 years in spite of the wicked Arctic blasts that decade.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

My mind is just blown that the models are solid on at least another week of cold.  Totally making up for the epic July 10 through Oct 20 torch.  It has actually gotten to the point where the majority of recent winters have had at least something decent to offer.  Since 2015-16 only 2019-20 was really lame, and even it had some goodies.

As an interesting aside...I clearly remember the 1980s and there were not as many snowstorms that decade as we have seen over the past 10 years in spite of the wicked Arctic blasts that decade.

I actually loved 2015-2016. That year it felt like every individual event overachieved. Plus a nice little surprise New Year's storm for PDX. It was definitely more than anemic in the snowfall department, but I can't recall such an onslaught of storms in the years since as early December 2015.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

My mind is just blown that the models are solid on at least another week of cold.  Totally making up for the epic July 10 through Oct 20 torch.  It has actually gotten to the point where the majority of recent winters have had at least something decent to offer.  Since 2015-16 only 2019-20 was really lame, and even it had some goodies.

As an interesting aside...I clearly remember the 1980s and there were not as many snowstorms that decade as we have seen over the past 10 years in spite of the wicked Arctic blasts that decade.

Warm, sunny summers and cold, snowy winters... I love this new regime.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sunday has 925mb temps at +1 and 850mb temps at -2 on Sunday here on the 12z euro. Temp is 34 at the time. Is it possible for it to even snow with not very impressive upper level temps?

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Sunday has 925mb temps at +1 and 850mb temps at -2 on Sunday here on the 12z euro. Temp is 34 at the time. Is it possible for it to even snow with not very impressive upper level temps?

It looks like an inversion situation Saturday night. Could be the potential for some freezing drizzle? 

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2 hours ago, Terreboner said:

A simple question(s) and curiosity for those of you that hate your area for snow.  Is there something keeping you from moving to a better location?  Do you plan on doing so?  Where is your ideal spot?

I moved from always living in the valley to over here, and yes, it does snow easier here.  But it also is shadowed a lot and takes the right ingredients for some real good snow ie; upslope flow, etc...

Still, I kind of think it snows just enough here but not too much to where it loses its wonder.  Good balance for me.

I DID move to an area with lots more snow.  From an area that averages maybe 7 inches a year, with some years at 0, to an area that averages 94 inches.  Love having snow on the ground and being able to xcountry ski or snowshoe within 5 minutes of my house. 

But I wasn't going to move here just for that.  There are 8-9 other months of the year where it won't snow.  And even in Winter it doesn't snow all the time.  You have to love where you live regardless of snow.  

Does the snow lose a bit of its' wonder?  Sure, a bit.  Although November and especially December snow are quite magical with the town Christmas lights.

But the opposite side of that coin is that rug pulls or forecast busts are not that big of a deal.  After all we get plenty of snow anyway.  Where a rug pull or bust in other areas might mean you have to wait a year or 2 for the next chance, and that is pretty hard to stomach. 

I also love the 4 seasons here.  Warm and dry Springs, as opposed to where I was where it rained a lot in Spring and the ground was still sopping wet.  And of course the scenery is beautiful too.

I'm fortunate because we were able to move.  We had the finances and career flexibility to make it happen.   I know a lot of people don't.  

It is fun for me to see everyone else's excitement over the snow.  And I hope all of you get good snows this winter.

BTW I've had about 25-28 inches of snow so far IMBY, and an 18 inch base.  I haven't seen my lawn since November 5th and almost certainly won't until sometime in March 

Edited by Brian_in_Leavenworth
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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Sunday has 925mb temps at +1 and 850mb temps at -2 on Sunday here on the 12z euro. Temp is 34 at the time. Is it possible for it to even snow with not very impressive upper level temps?

Yeah... the 925 temps are not impressive with the Sunday system.   I had not noticed that.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-1669917600-1670176800-1670241600-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I DID move to an area with lots more snow.  An area that averages maybe 7 inches a year, with some years at 0, to an area that averages 94 inches.  Love having snow on the ground and being able to xcountry ski or snowshoe within 5 minutes of my house. 

But I wasn't going to move here just for that.  There are 8-9 other months of the year where it won't snow.  And even in Winter it doesn't snow all the time.  You have to love where you live regardless of snow.  

Does the snow lose a bit of its' wonder?  Sure, a bit.  Although November and especially December snow are quite magical with the town Christmas lights.

But the opposite side of that coin is that rug pulls or forecast busts are not that big of a deal.  After all we get plenty of snow anyway.  Where a rug pull or bust in other areas might mean you have to wait a year or 2 for the next chance, and that is pretty hard to stomach. 

I also love the 4 seasons here.  Warm and dry Springs, as opposed to where I was where it rained a lot in Spring and the ground was still sopping wet.  And of course the scenery is beautiful too.

I'm fortunate because we were able to move.  We had the finances and career flexibility to make it happen.   I know a lot of people don't.  

It is fun for me to see everyone else's excitement over the snow.  And I hope all of you get good snows this winter.

BTW I've had about 25-28 inches of snow so far IMBY, and an 18 inch base.  I haven't seen my lawn since November 5th and almost certainly won't until sometime in March 

I have a cabin outside of Leavenworth and I'm still doing repairs from last winter's record breaking snow dump. I love snow but I feel like I'd eventually hate it if I lived there full time. 

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We got just under an inch with the snow showers this afternoon. Apparently they were alot heavier down around Silverton with the SE end of town getting a couple inches in a very short amount of time, there may have been something of a flash freeze as silly as that sounds because I guess there were multiple accidents on Silver Falls HWY and some of the side roads, according to the local FB page it is impossible to get off the hill right now due to pretty much all the roads out of the Silverton Hills being shut down due to accidents and disabled vehicles. Glad I decided to work from home today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

Are we sure that the Puget Sound area is cold enough for snow for tomorrow night? Some mesoscale models show Seattle near 40°. Upper air temps aren't too impressive either.

Yes it will be fine. We just had some nice cold dry air filter in today.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Anyone got a screenshot from when Cliff called us out and then deleted the part of the blog when he was wrong?

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Just now, Perturbed Member said:

 

The DPs across the whole column are low though. Wet bulb temp should be at or below freezing the whole way. 

Euro soundings Sunday morning near OLM

image.png.2f551a8266d4d8e30cc0cd3f1ccb139a.png

 

Near PDX

image.png.b59fe3734464220d16f71610d3f4618c.png

 

 

 

 

Yeah... if the ECMWF is showing snow then has to be very close.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sunday is going to be a raw day up here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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22 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

I have a cabin outside of Leavenworth and I'm still doing repairs from last winter's record breaking snow dump. I love snow but I feel like I'd eventually hate it if I lived there full time. 

I don't hate it, but it does come with issues.  Like the berm at the end of the driveway.   I frequently come home after they've plowed, and I have to dig my way into the driveway just to get to my snowblower, while I leave my car parked on the street, where parking isn't allowed.  

Last year's 40 inch snowfall was a once in a lifetime experience.  I'm glad I went through it, but once was enough.   The 13 inches of dry, powdery snow that fell the other day was perfect.

It become less interesting as you get into February and especially March.  Beats rain though anytime.

And I would never live here without a garage, not only because of snow, but also the summer heat.  It was a must have when we looked for a house here.

They also do a good job plowing the streets.  I always say the most difficult last of my drive during the snow is my driveway if I haven't cleared it.

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24 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

 

The DPs across the whole column are low though. Wet bulb temp should be at or below freezing the whole way. 

Euro soundings Sunday morning near OLM

image.png.2f551a8266d4d8e30cc0cd3f1ccb139a.png

 

Near PDX

image.png.b59fe3734464220d16f71610d3f4618c.png

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the descriptive analysis on this. I was wondering how it could possibly snow in a situation like that. 

2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-24

Lowest Min-13

Sub 40 Highs-8

Sub 32 Highs-3

Freezes-21

Rainfall MTD-0.11”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 25.29”

Total snowfall-TR.

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1 hour ago, Terreboner said:

A simple question(s) and curiosity for those of you that hate your area for snow.  Is there something keeping you from moving to a better location?  Do you plan on doing so?  Where is your ideal spot?

I moved from always living in the valley to over here, and yes, it does snow easier here.  But it also is shadowed a lot and takes the right ingredients for some real good snow ie; upslope flow, etc...

Still, I kind of think it snows just enough here but not too much to where it loses its wonder.  Good balance for me.

I have written here more than once that getting a better shot at lowland snow was a factor in my moving north.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I have written here more than once that getting a better shot at lowland snow was a factor in my moving north.

That's why it was directed at those that "hate" where they are for snow :).  I'm pretty sure TWL has a strong dislike for his climate.  But if he loves where he lives then more power to him.

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8 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

That's why it was directed at those that "hate" where they are for snow :).  I'm pretty sure TWL has a strong dislike for his climate.  But if he loves where he lives then more power to him.

Like you, I don’t want always snowy and cold. I experienced that in my twenties at college in the northern Rockies. It got old. I think where I am is just about ideal: I reliably get a taste of winter every year, but it doesn’t stay relentlessly frigid and snowy for months on end. I would not be happy in Eugene.

P.S. TWL is in Eugene for family and health reasons. He has mentioned that here more than once. I just hope he gets the chance to take a few winter vacations in a snowy climate soon.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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It's funny how quickly it gets cold here on these cold nights, but doesn't really change the rest of the night. We'll see what ends up happening, but it was 26F by 5 p.m. after a high of 35F. That was a 5 degree drop in an hour. An hour and a half later it's now 27F. It might drop a degree or two the rest of the night, but I doubt it ends up much colder than right now, which is a pattern I've been noticing on cold nights this year.

Not exactly sure the mechanism for this but probably has something to do with being away from heat trapping cities which allows for rapid radiational cooling and maybe being more exposed to wind/water that keep the temperature above a certain floor.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 4.5" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

It's funny how quickly it gets cold here on these cold nights, but doesn't really change the rest of the night. We'll see what ends up happening, but it was 26F by 5 p.m. after a high of 35F. That was a 5 degree drop in an hour. An hour and a half later it's now 27F. It might drop a degree or two the rest of the night, but I doubt it ends up much colder than right now, which is a pattern I've been noticing on cold nights this year.

Not exactly sure the mechanism for this but probably has something to do with being away from heat trapping cities which allows for rapid radiational cooling and maybe being more exposed to wind/water that keep the temperature above a certain floor.

It has been the case everywhere I have lived that the initial temperature drop after sundown is the steepest. Particularly in the PNW, the rate of temperature drop seems to approach zero after about five hours. At least it has every place I have lived.

Currently 25.0°F here.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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