PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Doinko]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

This has been an AWESOME almost Winter so far! Are you serious right now? There is so much more cold, arctic cold, and lowland snow opportunities on the way! Tons more snow pics and videos! C'MON!!!!

00z GFS in 4 hours 56 minutes
00z ECMWF in 7 hours 6 minutes

Only some flakes so far but maybe we could see some more soon

[snow_wizard]

Hmmmm.  That little cell looks like it has some minor convection going on on the visible sat pic.  These are things the models easily miss.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

This has been an AWESOME almost Winter so far! Are you serious right now? There is so much more cold, arctic cold, and lowland snow opportunities on the way! Tons more snow pics and videos! C'MON!!!!

00z GFS in 4 hours 56 minutes
00z ECMWF in 7 hours 6 minutes

Besides that Portland is DUE.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Besides that Portland is DUE.

Yeah I personally haven't seen more than 4.5" of snow in a month since January 2017. Hoping I can break that streak this winter

[Gradient Keeper]

The Great White Arctic Winter of 2022/2023. MBG!

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A little cell has popped over Kent and Auburn... any snow falling down there?

I had nothing 

[bishbish777]

18Z HRDPS is juicy for tomorrow nights system. Gets some heavier precip farther east as well. Hopefully this is a situation where the higher-res models are better distinguishing how far east the precip goes.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

18Z HRDPS is juicy for tomorrow nights system. Gets some heavier precip farther east as well. Hopefully this is a situation where the higher-res models are better distinguishing how far east the precip goes.

Post it pls?

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I had nothing 

Went over here too and didn’t get anything either. Just cold and cloudy out there. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Actually, get some light snow under that shower on the backside of it @TT-SEA @snow_wizard

[snow_wizard]

DP down to 21 at SEA.  I wonder if that snow shower between here and there is some kind of a dry line front.  The dp is quite a bit higher than that here so the approaching drier air might be forcing left over moisture out of the air.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Some more radar echoes appearing over the Kitsap. They don’t look like much at the moment, but maybe they develop into something better like that cell over Kent.

[bishbish777]

This includes some really light precip from today, but vast majority is from upcoming system.

[bishbish777]

21Z RAP looks much better than its own 15Z run as well.

21Z

15Z

[snow_wizard]

Looks like 34 will be the high here.  Not bad for a poor man's Arctic outbreak.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

This has been an AWESOME almost Winter so far! Are you serious right now? There is so much more cold, arctic cold, and lowland snow opportunities on the way! Tons more snow pics and videos! C'MON!!!!

00z GFS in 4 hours 56 minutes
00z ECMWF in 7 hours 6 minutes

I wouldn’t quite say awesome (my standards for that are pretty high), but it’s been a pretty darn good start considering that it’s just December 1st.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

DP down to 21 at SEA.  I wonder if that snow shower between here and there is some kind of a dry line front.  The dp is quite a bit higher than that here so the approaching drier air might be forcing left over moisture out of the air.

Arctic air making it further south?

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

21Z RAP looks much better than its own 15Z run as well.

21Z

15Z

What is the RAP?

[snow_wizard]

38 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looking at the handle he’s chosen makes me wonder if the UK has weather weenies that are as snow-crazed as most of us are.

They do.

[Winterdog]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Looks like 34 will be the high here.  Not bad for a poor man's Arctic outbreak.

I'm at 31.3 after a high of 31.9 a bit ago.  Hopefully I'll have a sub-freezing high with zero snow cover to boot.  November ended up with a 37.4 average, 30.2 low average and 7.94" precip.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Arctic air making it further south?

A bit.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

What is the RAP?

Must be a real winner!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

I'm at 31.3 after a high of 31.9 a bit ago.  Hopefully I'll have a sub-freezing high with zero snow cover to boot.  November ended up with a 37.4 average, 30.2 low average and 7.94" precip.

November was amazingly chilly.  That one just kind of snuck up on us.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What is the RAP?

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

DP down to 21 at SEA.  I wonder if that snow shower between here and there is some kind of a dry line front.  The dp is quite a bit higher than that here so the approaching drier air might be forcing left over moisture out of the air.

There is some stuff on the radar passing through here right now as well and the sky is actually getting brighter and the fog from earlier has lifted... but nothing is falling.

[RentonHill]

Is that a convergence zone on the east side of rainier?

[Dave]

Snowing in Eugene. 35 degrees. Very dark clouds. Better than being kicked in the dikk.

[Deweydog]

One year ago RIGHT NOW it was 54 degrees warmer in Omak.

[TacomaWx]

34/29 here today very impressive. Good amount of snow is still left so if it clears out tonight it could get very chilly. 

[bishbish777]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

What is the RAP?

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/

I'm not too familiar with it, so others can chime in for sure. My understanding is that, like the HRRR, its a hourly-run model for short-term forecasting. It's lower res than the HRRR, but I believe the RAP is almost like a "parent" model to the HRRR. It might feed some boundary conditions that the HRRR runs off of, I'm not too sure. I like to check it out just to see trends between its runs.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Our next system spinning in the Gulf of Alaska heading southeast towards us, but will remain further offshore than the previous one.

[umadbro]

Interesting bit of information. Can anyone confirm this?

[bishbish777]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Someone mentioned it but the HRDPS absolutely buries Kitsap/Hood Canal and even shows some in the Central Sound falling overnight tomorrow into Saturday.

FWIW, this model did 4th best (behind the Euro, HRRR (shocking, I know), and ICON) for the most recent winter storm over here when looking at totals for FSD/MSP/OMA. Might be apples/oranges comparison but thought I'd share that tidbit.

One thing to add here: it resolves a decent amount of the precip as rain, which seems kinda suspect given the cold in place and offshore flow. Actual precip amounts are higher than the snowfall map would suggest in the PS.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wow

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Graupel and snow fun!!!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wow

IMG_0494.MOV 41.48 MB · 3 downloads  

 

Holy crap... it is dumping!  

[Terreboner]

Just got home from Bend. Nice little squall moving through, 30 degrees.

[Dave]

Wow. Crazy dumpage. I think this was caused by convection. 

 

[FroYoBro]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wow

IMG_0494.MOV 41.48 MB · 2 downloads  

 

Lol. I love the thumbs up! Looks wild!

[smerfylicious]

Incredibly enough its been lightly snowing all day here. Was not expecting that.