PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

High res WRF is actually quite decent for Friday night.

kitsap and Hood Canal should do quite well. Not sure how much moisture will be able to make it East of Puget Sound.

 

Only green for me. Throw it out!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow Bremerton has dropped to 32 degrees with a stiff north wind. This is a legit airmass.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow Bremerton has dropped to 32 degrees with a stiff north wind. This is a legit airmass.

According to High Dessert we should be well into the 40’s after today! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

33 with some flurries at Silver Falls. Thursday is a work from home day, so I decided to relocate the office to one of the picnic shelters. Have a fire roaring in the shelter fireplace, but my fingers are still freezing up if I stop typing. 

[Phishy Wx]

The chorus of plow trucks and neighborhood snow removal equipment is a beautiful thing

[SouthHillJimmy]

Ended up with a bit over 4 inches, I’ll take it especially for so early in the season. Hood canal looks to get blasted tomorrow night

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

The chorus of plow trucks and neighborhood snow removal equipment is a beautiful thing

I am pretty happy when I hear the backing up beeping sound from inside the house after a snow event.    

[snow maniac]

12 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

These Upslope events can really smash this area. Even could be more in places than this is showing.

I hope my location can score on this one, I was on the transition line last Tuesday night, just super wet snow that didn’t accumulate. But just 2 or 3 miles west got 6 to 8 inches

[Cloud]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Impressive November for the region.

BLI: Coldest since 1985, #4 all-time.

SEA: Coldest since 1985 (barely beating out 1993), #6 all-time.

OLM: Coldest since 1985, #2 all-time.

EUG: Coldest since 2000, #6 all-time.

These are just flat out impressive numbers when you look at the years attached to this November. 

[Cloud]

Looked like a lot of people got snowed in today... commute was good this morning. My co-worker down in Graham received 4" 

[jakerepp]

Where's Al Tahoe? Looks like they're getting blasted right now.

[Cloud]

30 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

High res WRF is actually quite decent for Friday night.

kitsap and Hood Canal should do quite well. Not sure how much moisture will be able to make it East of Puget Sound.

 

This would put me on the board for over an inch!

[TacomaWx]

Up to 34 here…not a whole lot of melting snows still on the trees but it’s definitely melting a tad. We should hold on to some of it through Friday. 

[Phishy Wx]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am pretty happy when I hear the backing up beeping sound from inside the house after a snow event.    

I go to the window like a child, every D**n time.  wife thinks I'm a weirdo, I am a weirdo, it's fine.  heck 9 times out of 10 I watch the trash and recycling truck too lol

[SnarkyGoblin]

NAM 18Z really wants to keep the next low way offshore.  Dryer all around.

[TacomaWx]

Looks like we managed 0.8” of snow this morning on top of 1.2” last night. It’s mostly compacted down to about an inch left now. Puts us at 2.7” so far for this event the past few days pretty good stuff. 

[TT-SEA]

40 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

This is a good example of how the Chehalis Gap can take away a chance of snow here, watch the cell that looked decent coming from the south pretty much dissipate to nothing with 5 miles of here.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

I was looking at the satellite loop and I don't think it was the Chehalis Gap that caused the issue this time... it was northerly flow taking over across the area behind the departing low.    The Chehalis Gap is probably more of an issue for you when we have a strong east wind.

[DeepFriedEgg]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

These are just flat out impressive numbers when you look at the years attached to this November. 

Until you realize most of it was fake cold/inversions....

[HuskyMaestro]

Brutal 33 cold rain for Friday night in my area, if only it was just a tad colder. No chance it will?

[bishbish777]

7 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

NAM 18Z really wants to keep the next low way offshore.  Dryer all around.

Doesn't look too good for our area so we can just toss it.

[Gummy]

45 minutes ago, gusky said:

Important thing on this WRF run is the amount of precip. Much higher than what other models are showing right now

Not holding my breath, but we will see. 1-2 inches of actual snow would be fun. An inch of 33 degree slush in Seattle is fun to watch fall but not much of an event. If this was in late January I would be in full weenie mode right now, but it is only the 1st so plenty of time still to score.

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was looking at the satellite loop and I don't think it was the Chehalis Gap that caused the issue this time... it was northerly flow taking over across the area behind the departing low.    The Chehalis Gap is probably more of an issue for you when we have a strong east wind.

Well, either way, the dissipation happened right at the river.

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Until you realize most of it was fake cold/inversions....

That's quite true, but it did the job for the folks that want their "cold fixed" in. 

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

Doesn't look too good for our area so we can just toss it.

NAM and WRF are stark opposites at this point. Gonna be quite dynamic here for a few days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cloud said:

That's quite true, but it did the job for the folks that want their "cold fixed" in. 

It also means we probably haven't completely blown our load in the cold/troughing department. A month like February 2019 which features upper level cold anomalies for the entire month, is very very rare. Most of our coldest months got their on the backs of "fake cold."

 

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Not holding my breath, but we will see. 1-2 inches of actual snow would be fun. An inch of 33 degree slush in Seattle is fun to watch fall but not much of an event. If this was in late January I would be in full weenie mode right now, but it is only the 1st so plenty of time still to score.

Likewise, the UW model showed the deformation band over Seattle 12 hours prior to its next run where it pulled it south further. But also this is a very different case and scenario, deformation bands are notoriously hard to forecast. So we'll see!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

NAM and WRF are stark opposites at this point. Gonna be quite dynamic here for a few days.

The 00Z NAM last night showed another foot of snow falling in my area today.    I can report that did not happen.

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Well, either way, the dissipation happened right at the river.

Furthermore, the station down by the river has been showing E to ENE winds this morning so there has been a offshore easterly to an extent.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, gusky said:

NAM and WRF are stark opposites at this point. Gonna be quite dynamic here for a few days.

I wouldn’t count on the nam… it showed me getting 8 plus inches last night 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z NAM last night showed another foot of snow falling in my area today.    I can report that did not happen.

People don't call it "Not Another Mistake" model for no reason. 

[North_County]

Looks like I had a 2am high of 27°. Decent chance that stands.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Furthermore, the station down by the river has been showing E to ENE winds this morning so there has been a offshore easterly to an extent.  

But all the radar echoes have been fading as they move north today... the upper level support for lifting is sinking south and subsidence is taking over from north to south across the entire area.   I don't think the local wind direction is related to precip fading as it moves north today.

[Randyc321]

20 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

NAM 18Z really wants to keep the next low way offshore.  Dryer all around.

The NAM has been significantly drier with that feature for several runs now at least.  I think the WRF has been better of late. Hope the WRF is better for Fri. night, cause it's much more moist.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Randyc321
stupidity

[Snownerd3000]

Lastest weeklies keep us cooler than normal but a new wrinkle shows troughing moving east around Christmas.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Randyc321 said:

The NAM has been significantly drier with that feature for several runs now at least.  I think the WRF has been better of late. Hope the NAM is better for Fri. night, cause it's much more moist.

Disregard them all and go with the ECMWF.   Its has been amazingly accurate the last couple of days... as usual.

[gusky]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z NAM last night showed another foot of snow falling in my area today.    I can report that did not happen.

Euro will be more telling

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But all the radar echoes have been fading as they move north today... the upper level support for lifting is sinking south and subsidence is taking over from north to south across the entire area.   I don't think the local wind direction is related to precip fading as it moves north today.

Are you done?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Willamette Basin snow pack is 213% of normal. Hood River/Sandy Basin is 228%. Lowest snow pack in Oregon is in the SE corner at 138%. 

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Lastest weeklies keep us cooler than normal but a new wrinkle shows troughing moving east around Christmas.

meh had to happen at some point, bonus is it's not terrible and keeps us cold/chilly.  I'll also will be on NYC for XMAS > NYE so maybe I can selfishly see NYC dressed in snow and maybe a 'noreasta

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, gusky said:

Euro will be more telling

Hard to bet against Dr. Nein a lot of the times.