PNW December 2022 - Part II

[snow_wizard]

Pretty impressive that it's already so cold and the real cold isn't even here yet.  I could get used to this!

[MossMan]

25 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think that the big story in Washington may end up being the cold and probably not a ton of snow…I think it’s pretty likely most people in western WA get snow at some point. Should be regional fun! 

Okay I’m at the bargaining phase…I will take 3” and then frigid temps at this point. 
I want enough snow cover to influence my low temps! Let’s get down to the single digits!! 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Okay I’m at the bargaining phase…I will take 3” and then frigid temps at this point. 
I want enough snow cover to influence my low temps! Let’s get down to the single digits!! 

You may do well in the early phases of this.

[MossMan]

MS just mentioned he expects the low to come in stronger effecting Wa! 

[SnowPlz]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Okay I’m at the bargaining phase…I will take 3” and then frigid temps at this point. 
I want enough snow cover to influence my low temps! Let’s get down to the single digits!! 

Multiple chances for snow this week in most parts of western Washington 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Okay I’m at the bargaining phase…I will take 3” and then frigid temps at this point. 
I want enough snow cover to influence my low temps! Let’s get down to the single digits!! 

You'll probably get a surprise 6" on Sunday or something

[Frontal Snowsquall]

15 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Let me ask you Oregon members, (especially  PDX), who would you argue is the best on-air met that consistently represents transparency, honesty and straight forward analysis the best?

And why?  

Mark and Steve are the best IMO. They have the most knowledge and always provide detailed analysis.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Okay I’m at the bargaining phase…I will take 3” and then frigid temps at this point. 
I want enough snow cover to influence my low temps! Let’s get down to the single digits!! 

Mike seems to think that anywhere PDX north is going to do just fine. We’ve seen it many times precip ends up more than expected on the north side of these systems. I really think everyone north of PDX will get snow atleast at this point. He’s talked about that several times on the livestream about how that could very easily happen. 

[HuskyMaestro]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Okay I’m at the bargaining phase…I will take 3” and then frigid temps at this point. 
I want enough snow cover to influence my low temps! Let’s get down to the single digits!! 

I'll happily take 2-3" as long as the temps remain cold and the snow stays long enough for Christmas morning. After that point, reset the pattern for a great January. 

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Okay I’m at the bargaining phase…I will take 3” and then frigid temps at this point. 
I want enough snow cover to influence my low temps! Let’s get down to the single digits!! 

All I ask for is an inch going into the dry cold. 29F

[Hawksfan2008]

Snyder also predicting the Tuesday storm comes in stronger and farther north than modeled. 

[RentonHill]

The people giving him money seem hilarious. @Deweydog you'd rake it in here if you wanted

[Skagit Weather]

15 minutes ago, thickhog said:

I

If you’re comparing actual population centers, though (eg eastside and north of Seattle vs south pdx metro), it’s not even close. 

That's true and that's why I provided that caveat at the end. Although SEA has done particularly well in some years (21" in 2019 was as good if not better than many areas in 2019) and not as good in others (almost completely missing out in 2020) and it sound like to an extent the same thing happened with PDX at least in 2017 where the airport had less snow than much of the metro area.

But in general I agree that we've been luckier up here than down there, even if the primary airport stations in each area don't exactly show a clear snowfall winner.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very cool!

Did you really mean 12 foot drifts?   

Woops, no I worded that wrong - I wish! I meant drifts that are a foot. 

[thickhog]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

Snyder also predicting the Tuesday storm comes in stronger and farther north than modeled. 

Just leave pdx metro with one inch of snow. We’re begging.

[Terreboner]

I will accept beer mailed to me.  I already have enough $$$$

[jcmcgaffey]

The gfs technically saw this thing first a long time ago before the other models came around so maybe it is the king if we end up getting cold and snow…or it’s most accurate 7+ days out

[TacomaWx]

Lol some Washington posters really rooting hard against Oregon after like 50-80” of snow the last few winters  

[Cloud]

MS is saying the Thursday storm is the real deal, trending that way. Thinks the GFS will eventually come around 

[BLI snowman]

41 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Stunning changes.

Looks like an advective temp for the Portland area, to boot. In which case 19 degrees is pretty big league.

[CasuallyFoxy]

29 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Technically, 5 out of the last 6 winters have had above average snowfall at PDX compared to 4 out of the last 6 at SEA so maybe the Seattle area is actually more "due" for a big winter storm...

And before people say, "SEA has gotten more snow," which is true, PDX has still been more above average recently. Over the last 6 winters (2016-17 to 2021-22) PDX has picked up 42.7" of snow while SEA has picked up 59.0" of snow. The 30 year average snowfall at PDX is 4.3" while at SEA it's 6.3" (a total that may be artificially depressed considering snow wasn't measured at the airport from 1996-2004). So over the last 6 years PDX has averaged 7.1" of snowfall a year or 165% of normal while SEA has averaged 9.8" of snowfall a year or 156% of normal. If just looking at last year PDX picked up 6.3" (146% of average) compared to SEA with 9.2" (146% of average) so once again they're in lock-step.

Not to say Portland and environs don't deserve snow, but I thought it was interesting that in terms of the absolute numbers over recent years both cities are pretty comparable in percent of average (both running more than 50% above average for the last 6 years). Of course I think it would be much harder to argue that PDX isn't due for cold/"Arctic temperatures" as compared to SEA. Last winter SEA dropped to 17F and its 30 year average minimum annual temperature is 21F while PDX hasn't dropped below 23F in the last 5 years (annual average min is 21F). And in terms of subfreezing highs both stations average 2 a year but SEA picked up 5 last winter while PDX had none. Of course if you look at the same 6 year average as before, PDX has had 9 subfreezing highs (6 of which were in 2017), while SEA has only had 7 so maybe Seattle is more due...

Of course keep in mind this analysis is only based on two stations which are poor representations of the area as a whole and the years are a little cherry picked (if you exclude 2017 then PDX looks a lot worse while if you exclude 2019 SEA looks a lot worse).

The most snow I've had on the ground since 2017 is 2".  Turns out getting 1" of slop a few times doesn't make for an exciting winter :c

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snyder sounds like a complete Washington homer. To be honest I don’t give 2 sh*t what he has to say.

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Snyder also predicting the Tuesday storm comes in stronger and farther north than modeled. 

I just had thought about that a little while ago... in recent years cold air always comes in slower than modeled even the day before.  And more cyclogenesis might occur which would also bring things north.

[Terreboner]

Apparently he is an aeronautical engineer too.

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol some Washington posters really rooting hard against Oregon after like 50-80” of snow the last few winters  

I just hope the Tuesday event can spread the fun all around if we somehow get skunked from the Sunday night event.

[Hawksfan2008]

Best case scenario: arctic front stalls and overperforms in western Washington. Tuesday storms drops south and hits Oregon and therefore pulls more cold air in. Thursday overrunning event buries everyone. Who’s with me!? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snyder may be right, but a broken clock is right twice a day. I’m actually serious, he just shovels people stuff they want to hear. But his forecasts are typically garbage. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Cold Snap]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

Best case scenario: arctic front stalls and overperforms in western Washington. Tuesday storms drops south and hits Oregon and therefore pulls more cold air in. Thursday overrunning event buries everyone. Who’s with me!? 

I’d have to agree with this one!

[Cloud]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snyder may be right, but a broken clock is right twice a day. 

Make a YT channel Andrew!! We’d support you! 

[Requiem]

Whatever happens I am rooting hard for the south PDX metro and Salem-- I feel like they are the most due out of everyone right now.

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snyder may be right, but a broken clock is right twice a day. 

I almost told him not to pull a Jeffrey Toobin but I didn't want to get kicked off.

 

[Darrington Troll]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snyder sounds like a complete Washington homer. To be honest I don’t give 2 sh*t what he has to say.

No kidding, he lives in Seattle. Lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cloud said:

Make a YT channel Andrew!! We’d support you! 

I should. I’d talk trash about the nws and make horrible forecasts based off the 18z CFS. 

[Skagit Weather]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Okay I’m at the bargaining phase…I will take 3” and then frigid temps at this point. 
I want enough snow cover to influence my low temps! Let’s get down to the single digits!! 

If you don't score a surprise couple of inches out of the early stages of this I will be shocked. I mean even earlier this month you picked up a decent snowfall even if you didn't get as much as you hoped. Like Winterdog I would love 1-2" just to make it feel wintry, with cold temps but I'm not too optimistic I'll get much more than flakes in the air.

My new system for never being disappointed with forecast snowfall here (especially after the phantom snow earlier this month) is to take the model showing the least amount of snow (whether GFS, Gem, Euro, NAM, Icon, etc) and subtract 2" for every 24 hour period until the storm is supposed to hit. So right now I'm not expecting any snow for the event. Of course, you should probably take whatever the best model is and add an inch or two to get your expected totals.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

MS is saying the Thursday storm is the real deal, trending that way. Thinks the GFS will eventually come around 

Gave him goosebumps! 

[Hawksfan2008]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Gave him goosebumps! 

1996… 

[Brennan]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just had thought a little while ago... in recent years cold air always comes in slower than modeled even the day before.  And more cyclogenesis might occur which would also bring things north.

There's also the GFS!!!! 

[Cloud]

Just now, MossMan said:

Gave him goosebumps! 

I do agree with Andrew though, I’m reluctant to call anything a “real deal” a week out right now considering the models are even struggling 2-3 days out.

[Hawksfan2008]

Was telling my wife today how much I’ve enjoyed being a part of this community. It’s incredible to engage with so many who are just as passionate about weather. Thanks all! 

[Skagit Weather]

9 minutes ago, CasuallyFoxy said:

The most snow I've had on the ground since 2017 is 2".  Turns out getting 1" of slop a few times doesn't make for an exciting winter :c

Yeah, that's tragic. March 2011 to January 2019 I never had more than 3" of snow on the ground and it was extremely frustrating. And now I've had 4 high snowfall years in a row so I hope your time is coming and would love for that area to get dumped on in the coming days.