PNW December 2022 - Part II

[snow_wizard]

I am 100% flummoxed as to what's going on with the models.  The GEM has doubled down on a totally ECMWF like solution and GFS has doubled down on the fail solution.  The big difference I see is the GEM and ECMWF keep more surface high pressure off the coast of BC than the GFS does.  Early on the GEM and ECMWF just have better back digging into the ULL that sets up over southern BC.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Wednesday 1pm. 

It's basically the same as the 12z. A lot colder east of the Cascades and in the Columbia Basin. 

[Meatyorologist]

@SouthHillFrosty

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I am 100% flummoxed as to what's going on with the models.  The GEM has doubled down on a totally ECMWF like solution and GFS has doubled down on the fail solution.  The big difference I see is the GEM and ECMWF keep more surface high pressure off the coast of BC than the GFS does.  Early on the GEM and ECMWF just have better back digging into the ULL that sets up over southern BC.

 

 

[MWG]

12 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

This one looks way better for us in SO!

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

@SouthHillFrosty

We’re saved thank god!!

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I am 100% flummoxed as to what's going on with the models.  The GEM has doubled down on a totally ECMWF like solution and GFS has doubled down on the fail solution.  The big difference I see is the GEM and ECMWF keep more surface high pressure off the coast of BC than the GFS does.  Early on the GEM and ECMWF just have better back digging into the ULL that sets up over southern BC.

I actually wouldn't say the GFS has doubled down at all. In fact, if you read my post from earlier, I talked about its large-scale caving towards the Euro over the last 24 hours. Even from a local-scale perspective, it was a bit colder than its 18z run.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's basically the same as the 12z. A lot colder east of the Cascades and in the Columbia Basin. 

Less precip though this run. Also looks like the coldest surface temps are Wednesday night/Thursday Morning 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gem shows probably the worst ice storm Puget sound has ever had in recent times. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Despite the 500mb pattern not nearly as good as the GEM/UKMET, the GEFS is actually a bit colder.

[Jbolin]

10 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

I love you Canada 

That s*** morphs into a clown. 

I know I've attained "full" Hunter S. Thompson "inebriation", but this a movif***in CLOWN.

I don't know what to believe anymore.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

 

Seems like this run is about to get rid of that feature talked about. That should lean towards the Arctic solutions if the GFS continues to go that way. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Don't know if this means anything or not.  On the operational, there is a low pressure system developing off the BC coast.  What Jay Albrecht was talking about.  You see it on the 18Z GEFS but NOT so much on the 0Z GEFS.

18 GEFS

 

00Z GEFS

[Perturbed Member]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I am 100% flummoxed as to what's going on with the models.  The GEM has doubled down on a totally ECMWF like solution and GFS has doubled down on the fail solution.  The big difference I see is the GEM and ECMWF keep more surface high pressure off the coast of BC than the GFS does.  Early on the GEM and ECMWF just have better back digging into the ULL that sets up over southern BC.

Not sure I'd say the GFS really doubled down.

The BC low on the GFS is dramatically weaker compared to the 12z and 18z runs. I think that is actually a significant step towards GEM/Euro. We get rid of that development up north and we will be able to get the cold air to penetrate much further south and keep it much longer. 

[snow_wizard]

At least the GEFS continued it's slow improving trend on this run.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Not sure I'd say the GFS really doubled down.

The BC low on the GFS is dramatically weaker compared to the 12z and 18z runs. I think that is actually a significant step towards GEM/Euro. We get rid of that development up north and we will be able to get the cold air to penetrate much further south and keep it much longer. 

I was just talking about the end result of the block drifting off to the east way too fast.

[Gradient Keeper]

Now if we can shunt that energy north of Hawaii back and pull the narrow ridge further west we'll see a MAJOR blast.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Looking out further than I should, I find this interesting.  Day 10 on GFS and GEM

 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Looking out further than I should, I find this interesting.  Day 10 on GFS and GEM

 

Solid windstorm pattern. Gobs of mtn snow too.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Looking out further than I should, I find this interesting.  Day 10 on GFS and GEM

 

Lose a little snowpack then right back at it after Christmas.  January is on the table this year.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z UKMET days 4 and 5. Looks good to me.

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Looking out further than I should, I find this interesting.  Day 10 on GFS and GEM

 

They agree!

And in the big picture what we are tracking now is a minor detail in the pattern.   It just has massive implications for our area.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Solid windstorm pattern. Gobs of mtn snow too.

What was interesting to me is 1)  It's a big change from previous runs, and 2) good agreement with each other.  A recent ECMWF run had a very warm pineapple express.  This looks more seasonal temp wise.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

They agree!

And in the big picture what we are tracking now is a minor detail in the pattern.   It just has massive implications for our area.

Doesn't look at torchy to me. Win win.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour

[Kolk1604]

No North American view... WTF?

Hour 96 

[Requiem]

Pretty clear trend.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Perturbed Member]

UKMET still very cold

[Meatyorologist]

The change from the 12z to the 00z on the UKMET looks similar to the 12z to 00z changes on the CMC.

[Gradient Keeper]

A crazy next 2-3 runs of model riding ahead. I do have a bad feeling PDX metro is going to see a major ice storm.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

No North American view... WTF?

Hour 96 

Unfortunately not on Pivotal. I wish though!

[Gradient Keeper]

Euro has the final say in my opinion. If the Euro remains cold I think the EPS will trend colder too.

[Perturbed Member]

-18c 850mb temp for SEA, -14c PDX

 

Unfortunately the UKMET sends that low way way south, into Northern California. The snow it shows over NW OR comes from the arctic front and possibly some deformation. Overall the UKMET has things looking incredibly suppressed. The payoff is that this leads to long lasting frigid conditions. 

[Prairiedog]

2 hours ago, Requiem said:

Nelsen-- nuanced forecasts accounting for local microclimates. Generally the most accurate met in the area. I think Jeff Forgeron (also from FOX12) was pretty great as well. 

I agree.  His over the years understanding of microclimates and those nuances for our area.  He's not perfect but what makes him good too is his patience when he forecasts.  He stays inside himself.  I call him the pinball wizard.  The deaf, dumb, and blind kid sure plays a mean pinball. 

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Euro has the final say in my opinion. If the Euro remains cold I think the EPS will trend colder too.

At least the 06z trended that way for both 

[Meatyorologist]

All eyes on Wednesday to break Tiger's streak.

[Terreboner]

Nobody has posted this, but our fuzzy friend only spikes briefly then crashes right back down.  Inline with the 10 day.

[Cloud]

Just now, Terreboner said:

Nobody has posted this, but our fuzzy friend only spikes briefly then crashes right back down.  Inline with the 10 day.

@MossManyou had ONE job

[RentonHill]