PNW December 2022 - Part II

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Right, tonight's run did, but I don't think any previous did. Tonight's runs are playing "catch up" with surface temps and position of frontal boundaries it seems.

Good catch... the 12Z run did not show it happening until about 4 a.m.

 

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

How does EPS look for PDX? 

 

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Do we use ensembles for an event starting in about 24 hours?    

There is a reason why the operational exists. I think  

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good catch... the 12Z run did not show it happening until about 4 a.m.

 

About 5-6 hours ahead of schedule. This happens quite often with models playing catch-up when you compare the recent runs such as 00z tonight, with previous 12z or 00z last night. I see it all the time.

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, JW8 said:

OP does look to be on the "warm" end

Oh shit, we got a chance. OP was literally the warmest/top 3 warmest scenarios. However….. it’s hard to bet against it? @TT-SEA

[TT-SEA]

SEA has been stuck at 32 all evening despite a light north wind.    

31 in North Bend now.   There is no more dripping sounds here!  

[ShawniganLake]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’d like to see North Bend on the southern Oregon coast have a high of 23 before we try any 1990 comparisons. 

1990 this is not

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Wow brrr! What's your dewpoint?

temp now 15.6 with a DP of 5

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Oh , we got a chance. OP was literally the warmest/top 3 warmest scenarios. However….. it’s hard to bet against it? @TT-SEA

I have no idea.   Obviously we would never use the ensembles for something starting tomorrow in any other situation.   I think Matt might scold us for doing so.  

I just know its hard to bet against the ECMWF within 2 days.    Its can be wrong but its pretty rare at that short range.

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

About 5-6 hours ahead of schedule. This happens quite often with models playing catch-up when you compare the recent runs such as 00z tonight, with previous 12z or 00z last night. I see it all the time.

Good to see cold air arrive ahead of schedule. Almost never the case. 

[ShawniganLake]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... this is just the Tuesday system.

Cool. Thanks. I know it’s usually pretty good north of the border.  Mets use it quite frequently up here for near term forecasting.  I have no idea how it does south of the border. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic front now through Irrigon heading into the eastern Gorge soon. It says Umatilla, but on the map this sensor is northwest of Irrigon right on the Columbia River.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Cool. Thanks. I know it’s usually pretty good north of the border.  Mets use it quite frequently up here for near term forecasting.  I have no idea how it does south of the border. 

The maps look very well defined.   I don't think a model could be good for one side of a border and have no idea what is happening on the side of the border!

[TT-SEA]

I will say... the ECMWF could definitely change tomorrow for Tuesday.    We have 4 more runs before the event starts.

[gusky]

I assume this has already been posted, but this is one of the better HRRR runs I've ever seen!

[GHweatherChris]

Such a disappointing set up, a little bit of cold, frozen roads tomorrow from rain today, a couple of chilly days and then rain.  Effin yay......

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The maps look very well defined.   I don't think a model could be good for one side of a border and have no idea what is happening on the side of the border!

I have never thought of it like that. Probably not. 

[Requiem]

14 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

 

Pretty incredible mean-- definitely strong agreement in that powerful low-level blast. Ice accumulation averages definitely add to the concern of what happens before that frigid air is filtered out...

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice uptick In the NBM 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

57 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Seems like 6-10” could be a decent bet up This way. 

Almost every model shows 6"+ now. I think the only one that doesn't is the 12k NAM, but then the 3k showed 8" so it seems like the 12k wasn't initialized correctly. I believe that model run had less than an inch up here. There's a pretty comfortable margin for error at the northern edge of this

[WeatherGeek2022]

cmon lets get some heavy stuff in tacoma

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic front now into Boardman. Moving westward awfully quick.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM. Hmmm! Awfully close for Snow in PDX tomorrow late morning into the afternoon. C'MON!!!!

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

cmon lets get some heavy stuff in tacoma

Ayo facts. Issa mood cuddi

[Brennan]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I will say... the ECMWF could definitely change tomorrow for Tuesday.    We have 4 more runs before the event starts.

Seems like just yesterday you were talking endlessly for years about how fed up you were with our climate here in the PNW… Moss this moss that moss this moss that. Lol. Back when your kids were toddlers. I think one time maybe around 2008 i told you you were a bad parents because you spent too much time on the forum. Back in the day when we all took turns getting pissed off and being banned. Those were the days…

[Kolk1604]

Wind out of the south, temp up to 35 

[snow_wizard]

32 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

1990 this is not

It's still going to get very cold though.

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nice uptick In the NBM 

Trends are good tonight.

[The Blob]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Meanwhile a chilly 43/35 day here. Partly to mostly cloudy with some moderate showers at times. Caught a nice close to solstice sunset from Powell Butte nature park earlier.

Find any bodies there?

I love Powell Butte, I need to go back.

[Meatyorologist]

30F here with light snow.

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's still going to get very cold though.

is it really?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Not good on the Nam so far 

[Sandy rocks]

Powell Butte is very neat. You can see five mountains from up there. Nice walking paths.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's still going to get very cold though.

I just went out to get some fire wood. Can confirm it’s very cold. 22F here. 
 

hope is 9F with a windchill of -9F

[thickhog]

18 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Arctic front now into Boardman. Moving westward awfully quick.

A 9 degree drop in 30 min...

[Meatyorologist]

Oh lawd. Even a slight move north on the models would be bad! Let's just lock the HRRR in and call it a day! 🫣

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Wind out of the south, temp up to 35 

I am glad to be on the cold side of the boundary.

[snow_wizard]

Low ends up south of Tacoma on the NAM.

[Cloud]

Definitely feels like the Euro op run is an outlier for the near term. Through Tuesday’s snow totals on the 0z EPS remains largely unchanged.
 

In fact, it looked like it improved with 45% of the members showing 4”+, up from 33% on the 12z

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Low ends up south of Tacoma on the NAM.

Yea model is jumping a bit. Looks good north of Seatac. South of SeaTac could have snow to rain to snow probs