PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Really coming down good now. Already passed the European amounts….

Millimeters?

[MossMan]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

I’m still in the blue! 

[Cloud]

Some heavy stuff at Shoreline/Edmonds. 

[Weiner Warrior]

I can confirm snow I-5 and I-90

 

 

 

 

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Currently 21.7F with moderate snow here in Victoria. Looks like about 2" of accumulation so far. Had a "high" of 23.7F late last night, the airmass was a few degrees colder than forecast 

[Doinko]

38 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

If nobody posts the NAM then it didn’t happen

I'm going to ignore the first part of the NAM and just post this

 

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Some heavy stuff at Shoreline/Edmonds. 

That band is right over me right now and it's glorious. 

[WeatheringLoyalHeights]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Some heavy stuff at Shoreline/Edmonds. 

Yeah that just went right over me. Definitely the fluffier bigger flakes that start the accumulations even on pavement.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Icon is running

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Down to 18.9˚F with light snow continuing. Under an inch new so far.

[jcmcgaffey]

5 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Millimeters?

Haha. Have almost an inch.

[Sam]

Not much happening here on East Hill still. But, also not really sure what to expect given the uncertainty with this event

[MossMan]

Up to 23.0. Switchover to rain should be any moment now. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m still in the blue! 

I have to believe you are golden for this entire system... particularly given your current temperature.

Also... some sort of warm front feature is really showing up on radar now from Seattle northward and precip is exploding and heading your way.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Haha. Have almost an inch.

In the highlands??

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I'm going to ignore the first part of the NAM and just post this

 

00z NAM shows snow from about Salem North to Vancouver Island with the arrival of the system by Thursday 7pm.

[Prairiedog]

3 hours ago, Perturbed Member said:

Mark Nelsen thinks PDX is pretty screwed from ice and power outages.

"

• Assume much of the I-5 corridor could “shut down” driving-wise Friday, for one day. Then there’s a decent chance at least half the metro area is still frozen through Saturday. Maybe roads are much better west/south metro…maybe. Worst-case scenario is that it’ll be hard to move in much of the Portland metro area all of Friday and Saturday with lots of freezing rain and power outages. A memorable Christmas ice storm. Best case is that most of the I-5 corridor is in good shape by midday Saturday and ice storm conditions are only confined to east metro areas near the Gorge. That’s best case.

"

He also does not believe we will have snow for very long if we get it at all. 

"Most models have precipitation arriving 4pm-10pm Thursday. That’s just a first guess. So the first snow/ice pellets/freezing rain MAY impact the Thursday evening commute. If it starts as snow, it can’t last long because forecast soundings imply warming overhead happens quickly."

 

I hope PDX can somehow eek out a quick inch or two before that nasty ice but the models have all been consistent in showing significant WAA. The soundings show steady easterly flow up to 900mb even during the steady precip but I don't think that is quite deep enough for snow. 

with the air as dry as it will be, there will be a lot of time eaten up moistening up the atmosphere.  If that's the case doesn't that just bring us closer to ZR time?  That east wind is going to eat a lot of snow for a while.  By then I'm concerned those mid levels will maybe starting to warm. Thoughts on that?  Timing is going to be important here as there may not be a big window for snow.

[MikeInEverett]

Really starting to pick up here

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I'm going to ignore the first part of the NAM and just post this

 

This would likely set a new record low at SEA. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Ugh oh

[Meatyorologist]

Holy snowglobe!!! Cloud of dentrites and the whole neighborhood is down to 30F.

[Seattle]

What is HQM-SEA right now?

[MikeInEverett]

Radar really starting to explode

[RentonHill]

Zillow needs a filter for elevation.

[Christensen87]

4 minutes ago, Sam said:

Not much happening here on East Hill still. But, also not really sure what to expect given the uncertainty with this event

Radar filling in around us now. 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Seattle said:

What is HQM-SEA right now?

-1.5

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Zillow needs a filter for elevation.

Here’s your filter

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Ugh oh

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Zillow needs a filter for elevation.

I did select my current home in part by asking the local weather weenies which neighbourhoods are the snowiest. It's paid off, too: most snowfalls I get at least twice as much as Downtown gets.

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

00z NAM shows snow from about Salem North to Vancouver Island with the arrival of the system by Thursday 7pm.

00z NAM PDX sounding does show the whole column below freezing during that first band, you can see some warming and temps just around freezing at 830mb. Seems increasingly possible that PDX will get some light snow accumulation before the changeover. 

[awright-31]

Just getting home to Yelm and it is raining. It’s just not cold enough. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looks a little different 

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I did select my current home in part by asking the local weather weenies which neighbourhoods are the snowiest.

I'm not ashamed to admit that we bought our property here where I knew upslope flow would be greatest!

[Everleigh]

33.8* DP at 31.8*. It's just been a steady, light rain since the moisture moved in. 

[Blizzard777]

17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Don’t make me edit this photo

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have to believe you are golden for this entire system... particularly given your current temperature.

Also... some sort of warm front feature is really showing up on radar now from Seattle northward and precip is exploding and heading your way.

This is really looking good north of Seattle.  The radar looks pretty weak off the coast and most of the energy looks to be focused north. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Looks like rain might make it to the king/snoh line….. 

got the GFS upcoming up. We need some Jim positivity! 

[Perturbed Member]

The NAM drops a solid 0.60 in QPF from the first round of precip Thursday night-Friday AM. This is the temp after all of this precip falls from the first band.

Things are gonna get really messy here if this is how it actually unfolds. 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I was just thinking this before I even looked at icon. The radar looks really weak and scattered off the coast. 

[fubario]

3 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

Just getting home to Yelm and it is raining. It’s just not cold enough. 

Same here in oly. as R. Lee Ermey says in Full Metal Jacket...."I guess the corps don't get theirs"