Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[Money]

Anyone know the reasoning for this like plume of moisture? Is it lake enhanced? It’s a very narrow area in WI down into IL 

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

18z GFS. Enjoy…

The GFS tracking the low through NW Arkansas is perfect for KC and mby.

[jaster220]

Just now, Clinton said:

The GFS tracking the low through NW Arkansas is perfect for KC and mby.

Note to self "do not trust turd model GFS" 

Yesterday was burying WOH. It's a shifty piece of work, lol

[ChiTownSnow]

6 minutes ago, Money said:

Anyone know the reasoning for this like plume of moisture? Is it lake enhanced? It’s a very narrow area in WI down into IL 

Safe to say the east side of lake is lake enhanced.  But it's also wrapping in moisture from Atlantic/gulf as it intensifies 

[winterfreak]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GFS tracking the low through NW Arkansas is perfect for KC and mby.

Yessir. We shall see.

[jaster220]

7 am Friday morning. 

12z Euro compared to 18z GFS

[jaster220]

GFS just keeps getting worse as it follows King Euro. Doesn't even snow here until Friday evening, then it rushes out and ends quickly Saturday. About to punt this one, just like back in November. 

My rant call from this morning looking $$

[Money]

GFS showing 35+ Mph gusts for 48+ hours and 50+ gusts for 30-36 hours. Gonna be tough for the plows to keep up with all the blowing and drifting that would occur 

[hlcater]

Loving the forecast for here. Solid floor of 3-5" with gusty winds even if the big low fails to deliver this far west. However, a shot at something more if this trends just right. Regionally, if not nationally, impactful storm trending to a near certainty at this point though.

[Bellona]

Woweee!!!

[Money]

18z GEFS trended NW with the precip and several members actually cut into W IL and N of Chicago 

 

 

[Jack_GradStudent]

9 minutes ago, Bellona said:

Woweee!!!

Especially 48 h+ away from the storm, gotta be very careful with qpf/snowfall outputs from the deterministic gfs.. it loved to spew out moisture and is often way too much. Definitely a trend to take note, though, especially because it's also evident in the ensemble mean. 

[Clinton]

36 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Note to self "do not trust turd model GFS" 

Yesterday was burying WOH. It's a shifty piece of work, lol

That's where the LRC is handy because Northern Arkansas is exactly where it should track.

[Jack_GradStudent]

36 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GFS tracking the low through NW Arkansas is perfect for KC and mby.

Think we (in KC) could benefit from a slightly further north track... I think we will need a solid balance of how far this storm digs south and how organzied/strong it can be as it passes.. the more it digs, the more it will likely be stronger. The more it stays north, the more it will likely be weaker. 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

Think we (in KC) could benefit from a slightly further north track... I think we will need a solid balance of how far this storm digs south and how organzied/strong it can be as it passes.. the more it digs, the more it will likely be stronger. The more it stays north, the more it will likely be weaker. 

Well said glad your back on here.  NW Arkansas track is better for me than KC but IF it's well put together like the last few runs both would do well.

[Clinton]

Just a little bit gusty/

[Bellona]

13 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

Especially 48 h+ away from the storm, gotta be very careful with qpf/snowfall outputs from the deterministic gfs.. it loved to spew out moisture and is often way too much. Definitely a trend to take note, though, especially because it's also evident in the ensemble mean. 

Oh yes, I know. I've followed the weather for 30 years now. Learned many times over the lesson of crazy hyped totals.

[Jack_GradStudent]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Well said glad your back on here.  NW Arkansas track is better for me than KC but IF it's well put together like the last few runs both would do well.

Glad to be back on. It's been too long. Love to come on here during winter time. Really fun to track these things. Finally got MS in meteorology and I'm working in KC now!

[Black Hole]

2 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

Glad to be back on. It's been too long. Love to come on here during winter time. Really fun to track these things. Finally got MS in meteorology and I'm working in KC now!

Are you in the NWS or private sector? 

[Madtown]

MQT Still saying this goes more NW or at the very least no further South.  Gonna be interesting thats for sure.

[Clinton]

Nice little bump in totals for most on the 18z GEFS

Here are it's members

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Nice little bump in totals for most on the 18z GEFS

Here are it's members

Nice increase. Keep it coming. 

[Black Hole]

The Tulsa area is still on the southern fringes of the good stuff. I'm not expecting the highest totals, but I hope the heavier stuff can slide a bit further south so I can get in on the fun. 

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Madtown said:

MQT Still saying this goes more NW or at the very least no further South.  Gonna be interesting thats for sure.

I think I'm in a good spot, but must admit am mildly concerned about nw shifts.  Not really worried about it going too far se at this point.

[Money]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think I'm in a good spot, but must admit am mildly concerned about nw shifts.  Not really worried about it going too far se at this point.

I could see it going SE in a weaker storm but an amped up storm is most likely gonna cut father NW (usually) 

[Clinton]

EAX mentioning the possibility of a Blizzard.

Focus then shifts to what looks like the most significant cold
outbreak since February 2021. A very strong PV anomaly will move
southeast out of British Columbia into Montana and Wyoming. As this
anomaly digs southeast into the Plains, its associated cold front
will plow south through the region. Strong forcing ahead of the wave
with a building arctic air mass moving in will lead to widespread
snow developing Thursday morning. As the surface low deepens rapidly
with the wave taking a negative tilt over the area, the pressure
gradient tightens substantially. Strong momentum transfer with the
tight pressure gradient suggest very strong winds can be expected
while snowing across the area. This has the potential to be a
blizzard and we`ll have to really monitor trends. If this system
digs a little further west and begins its occlusion further west,
it will mean the difference between a couple inches of snow with
strong and gusty winds vs much higher snow amounts and much
stronger winds. Regardless, with holiday travel increasing heading
into the start of Christmas weekend, major impacts are likely
locally and throughout the Midwest.

The other major impact with this system will be the dangerous cold.
Have continued to trend temperatures downward. Thursday`s high will
likely be overnight, while temperatures fall throughout the day. Add
in the wind and wind chill values during the day Thursday will
likely fall into the -20 to -30 range by the afternoon hours. It
gets worse overnight into Friday morning where lows will likely
range from -5 to -15 and wind chill values in the -30 to -45 range.
There is a chance highs Friday will be below zero given the air
mass and likely snow cover. Forecast currently depicts zero to 5
above for the KC area with subzero highs confined to northern MO.
Temperatures begin to moderate Saturday with highs in the single
digits to teens forecast. Upper- level ridging begins to build
into the western states Christmas Day and that may help
temperatures "warm" into the teens and 20s across our forecast
area.

[Jack_GradStudent]

27 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Are you in the NWS or private sector? 

NWS... work for the Aviation Weather Center. 

[Clinton]

Just now, Jack_GradStudent said:

NWS... work for the Aviation Weather Center. 

I see EAX mentioning the possibility of a blizzard, I would say that will have you very busy,

[Hoosier]

A good deal of the storm is actually not that cold here on the GFS.  But this will depend on how quickly the surface low moves north.

The GFS forecast soundings are phenomenal from a wind perspective.  Not looking at gust maps but the actual forecast soundings/mixing depths which would suggest a window of 70-75 mph gusts here on Friday.    

[Jack_GradStudent]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EAX mentioning the possibility of a Blizzard.

Focus then shifts to what looks like the most significant cold
outbreak since February 2021. A very strong PV anomaly will move
southeast out of British Columbia into Montana and Wyoming. As this
anomaly digs southeast into the Plains, its associated cold front
will plow south through the region. Strong forcing ahead of the wave
with a building arctic air mass moving in will lead to widespread
snow developing Thursday morning. As the surface low deepens rapidly
with the wave taking a negative tilt over the area, the pressure
gradient tightens substantially. Strong momentum transfer with the
tight pressure gradient suggest very strong winds can be expected
while snowing across the area. This has the potential to be a
blizzard and we`ll have to really monitor trends. If this system
digs a little further west and begins its occlusion further west,
it will mean the difference between a couple inches of snow with
strong and gusty winds vs much higher snow amounts and much
stronger winds. Regardless, with holiday travel increasing heading
into the start of Christmas weekend, major impacts are likely
locally and throughout the Midwest.

The other major impact with this system will be the dangerous cold.
Have continued to trend temperatures downward. Thursday`s high will
likely be overnight, while temperatures fall throughout the day. Add
in the wind and wind chill values during the day Thursday will
likely fall into the -20 to -30 range by the afternoon hours. It
gets worse overnight into Friday morning where lows will likely
range from -5 to -15 and wind chill values in the -30 to -45 range.
There is a chance highs Friday will be below zero given the air
mass and likely snow cover. Forecast currently depicts zero to 5
above for the KC area with subzero highs confined to northern MO.
Temperatures begin to moderate Saturday with highs in the single
digits to teens forecast. Upper- level ridging begins to build
into the western states Christmas Day and that may help
temperatures "warm" into the teens and 20s across our forecast
area.

They are spot on in mentioning the trough's tilt and dig. ging a bit further west. 

[Jack_GradStudent]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I see EAX mentioning the possibility of a blizzard, I would say that will have you very busy,

I am not a forecaster.. work in research and development.. I initially wanted to go straight to NWS office asa forecaster, but this position appeared, and I don't have to work shift work, weekends, or holidays so that sounded quite nice. 

[Stacsh]

I need this to go east a little bit for a full on blizzard 

[winterfreak]

1 hour ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

Glad to be back on. It's been too long. Love to come on here during winter time. Really fun to track these things. Finally got MS in meteorology and I'm working in KC now!

That’s a big deal. Congrats man!

[Money]

10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z Euro totals through Thursday AM. A little shift south with the heavier totals which isn't surprising given how far north it was with that initial deformation-like band vs other models. Continues to cut totals for FSD from 9.2 on 00z to 7.4 on 12z to 6.7 on 18z. Kind of jumps right over us from it's initial ND/MN spot and places the heaviest totals in NE NE/NW IA.

How does it look for the rest of the storm? 

[Madtown]

12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z Euro totals through Thursday AM. A little shift south with the heavier totals which isn't surprising given how far north it was with that initial deformation-like band vs other models. Continues to cut totals for FSD from 9.2 on 00z to 7.4 on 12z to 6.7 on 18z. Kind of jumps right over us from it's initial ND/MN spot and places the heaviest totals in NE NE/NW IA.

This is for the same storm? That looks waaaaaay NW

[Money]

2 minutes ago, Madtown said:

This is for the same storm? That looks waaaaaay NW

That’s for the initial band I believe 

[Hoosier]

So how addicting is this stuff?

I was at a function much of the day and snuck away to the bathroom to get a quick peek at the 18z GFS.

Gonna be losing sleep this week no doubt.

[gosaints]

Once the storm wraps up I'm thinking kuchera ratios should be taken with a grain of salt.  There won't be a lot of dendrites surviving that trip through the atmosphere 

[jcwxguy]

That frame looks different vs pivotal 

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, gosaints said:

Once the storm wraps up I'm thinking kuchera ratios should be taken with a grain of salt.  There won't be a lot of dendrites surviving that trip through the atmosphere 

That's one of flaws with Kuchera... doesn't account for winds.  I'm thinking that something like 12:1 to 14:1 as an event average may be reasonable for many areas, but it's possible that some areas have lower ratios.