Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[Jack_GradStudent]

58 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Never heard of the super ensemble.

[Money]

Euro pretty similar to 12z through hr 66

[jcwxguy]

[winterfreak]

Sleep on this…

[jcwxguy]

[OmahaSnowFan]

Omaha NWS sticking to their guns

[Hoosier]

Would have to look at forecast soundings to see if that 65-70 kt area has a chance of being mixed into, but it's only at 925 mb so it's probably at least dangerously close to getting tapped into.

That's in an area that is well below 0F and snowing at that time.  It's almost unbelievable that conditions could be so severe in non-mountainous terrain at this latitude.  

 

[Naptownwx]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would have to look at forecast soundings to see if that 65-70 kt area has a chance of being mixed into, but it's only at 925 mb so it's probably at least dangerously close to getting tapped into.

That's in an area that is well below 0F and snowing at that time.  It's almost unbelievable that conditions could be so severe in non-mountainous terrain at this latitude.  

 

I have never been in a subzero blizzard  

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, Naptownwx said:

I have never been in a subzero blizzard  

Conditions are going to be horrid on a widespread basis, but if you had to ask me who is going to best put together the whole package of high snow amounts, extreme cold and high winds, it would be Indiana and probably back into parts of Illinois.

[ToastedRavs]

Des Moines out with discussion but no upgrades to any sort of warning.  A bit surprising, as they were pro active with watch but holding back on issuing warnings.  And not even a wind chill warning like other offices. Smdh

[Grizzcoat]

DMX cut way back (as expected) totals. Lower end actually showing up in update hourly weather forecasts.  A trend expected-- can it be bucked?  no clue.

[Chambana]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Conditions are going to be horrid on a widespread basis, but if you had to ask me who is going to best put together the whole package of high snow amounts, extreme cold and high winds, it would be Indiana and probably back into parts of Illinois.

I think my earlier call is $ for Champaign. I’ll take a surprise from Santa and push for 8-9”. Either way, legit blizz conditions for many of us, and I’m OFF work Thursday-Sunday. 

[Tom]

6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Was a common theme with the Jan '78 Super Bomb a bit south in OH where the flip from RN to Bliz was sharp. We may get that treatment with this system. 

I'm back in the saddle bud!  It was a long travel day yesterday so I'm just catching up on all the model data.  You can imagine what it must be like coming back to Chi after 5 months!  Can't believe its been that long.  I left when it was the so-called "Dog Days of Summer" in early August and now coming home and being greeted by a potential Historic Blizzard from Mother Nature!  Just incredible.  I'm kinda nervous of the SE shifts of the main snow band and the weaker qpf totals.

Been trying to keep up with all the posts and I honestly read or skimmed through all of them.  Remember when I said "Unless this storm does something funky?"  Well, last nights 0z suite of runs did just that.  Looks like the back n forth will likely continue today but my gut says you and @Nikoare definitely in the game when this massive Beast of a Blizzard wraps up and you guys get hit hard under the Belly of the Beast.  

0z Euro... @indianajohn @Hoosier @westMJim @Jarod @Stacshyou guys look golden IMHO...

 

I just read this blog post from WGN this morning....

[Tom]

Yikes, 0z EPS really cut back totals across the MW...not liking the trends over here...the Mitt/N IN/N WI/U.P remain golden...

 

 

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, Tom said:

I'm back in the saddle bud!  It was a long travel day yesterday so I'm just catching up on all the model data.  You can imagine what it must be like coming back to Chi after 5 months!  Can't believe its been that long.  I left when it was the so-called "Dog Days of Summer" in early August and now coming home and being greeted by a potential Historic Blizzard from Mother Nature!  Just incredible.  I'm kinda nervous of the SE shifts of the main snow band and the weaker qpf totals.

Been trying to keep up with all the posts and I honestly read or skimmed through all of them.  Remember when I said "Unless this storm does something funky?"  Well, last nights 0z suite of runs did just that.  Looks like the back n forth will likely continue today but my gut says you and @Nikoare definitely in the game when this massive Beast of a Blizzard wraps up and you guys get hit hard under the Belly of the Beast.  

0z Euro... @indianajohn @Hoosier @westMJim @Jarod @Stacshyou guys look golden IMHO...

 

I just read this blog post from WGN this morning....

Welcome back, glad you made it safely!  Looking at last nights Euro that you shared, this has the potential to be one of the largest blizzard warnings I have ever seen.  Even if the drier GFS wins out it's still a blizzard. warning for a bunch of us.

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Welcome back, glad you made it safely!  Looking at last nights Euro that you shared, this has the potential to be one of the largest blizzard warnings I have ever seen.  Even if the drier GFS wins out it's still a blizzard. warning for a bunch of us.

Thanks my friend!  When I stepped out of the airport baggage terminal it was 22F but with CALM winds and all i had on was a sweater and a light Nike jacket...LOL.  I gotta tell ya, my blood is thin and this cold is hard to adjust! 

Speaking of the Blitz potential, I agree, the amount of real estate that could be covered will be impressive.  I'm really curious to see if the offices start issuing Blizzard Watch's or Warnings in today's afternoon package out west.  LOT has been writing some strong wording and emphasizing on the snow/wind potential.  Haven't read stuff like this in years!

[Grizzcoat]

06 GEFS mean QPF is about the best thing going for C.IA in that it didn't decrease qpf from its previous run. All others I believe have. But grabbing at straws now----  still time for a change but it's the 2 minute warning and only 1 time out and down 8 and the other team has the ball.....

 

[Tom]

0z EPS members...there are still some pretty good hitters at 10:1 ratios....I'm hoping for 6" which appears that it should be a decent target.  IT'll all depend on when and where this storm bombs out and slows down somewhere over the Mitt and wraps up.  To bad we have a neutral NAO bc this would have slowed down a lot more and likely phased earlier.  Let's see how today's model runs go.  We can easily go back the other way.

 

[Tom]

The "Windy City" will be living up to its name....wild working from LOT for the wind potential as they used the Euro model as reference...

Quote

his higher end wind forecast has support by
various probabilistic model guidance tools, including the ECMWF
Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) that indicates this forecast relative
to previous forecasts in the upper 1-2 percentile over the entire
forecast area. That is a marked signal of an extreme event
relative to the model climate.

 

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I'm back in the saddle bud!  It was a long travel day

Welcome back! As you know things are now kind of looking interesting. 

[westMJim]

Good morning! I also posted part of this in the December area. Yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 27/22 there was no rain, snow or sunshine. With the ground still warm there is still melting taking place and the snow official snow depth at 7 AM yesterday at GRR was 6” this morning here in MBY it is at 7”. The average H/L for today is 35/24 the record high of 58 was set in 1949 and the record low of -3 was set in 1983 the record snow fall amount of 7.2” fell in 1951.

Now as to the potential major storm system for later this week! I am still waiting to see how this all plays out. At this time, it sure looks like there will be some kind of major system in our area. The current trends are for the low to stay to our south and southeast and then east northeast. It still in rather close to being overhead. In the 3 biggest storms in my lifetime 1967,1973 and 1978 (all at Bay City) the low was to the SE and there was a northeast wind in all 3 of them. Of course, that led to a strong NE wind off of Saginaw Bay and with it tons of snow fall and drifts of up to 20 feet. I am not sure what this true snow fall amounts were at Bay City but in 1967 in the yard the snow less than a inch to well over 4 feet in the yard and we were snowed in for 5 days and there was no school for over two weeks (that was back in the day when schools did not close very much) In looking at the ECMWF HI Res is what I will call the SLP  wobbles as it is to the SE and E of Michigan. Not sure if that will play out but I don’t recall that ever happening in the past. Also of note is that December is not a good month for big time statewide storms as the biggest I can find are December 19/20 1929 and to a lesser extent December 11/12 2000. There have been others but not as big. We shall see how this plays out over the next several days

[bud2380]

DVN took out snow totals in the winter storm watch. Looking at all guidance and reading their AFD, my call of 3-6” is looking pretty spot on. Happy to get a white Christmas, but disappointed with the trends so late in the storm. 

[jaster220]

IWX

Path: Model guidance is starting to converge on the key synoptic
features of this system, including the path/strength of the surface
low. A loosely organized area of low pressure extending from the
central plains up through MO/IL/IA/NE Wed night into Western Upper
MI will consolidate into a more compact system as upper level
forcing intensifies. By Thursday afternoon, the low is centered
right over Indiana at around 1000 hPa--and then by Friday morning it
drops as low as 975 hPa as it reaches Lake Huron. If you believe the
GFS, the low drops to 957 hPa Friday evening over Quebec! The point
is, this system is strong and is likely to cause significant impacts
to holiday travel--especially Dec 23 (the busiest travel day of the
year).

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings says there has been a decrease in snow amounts in the models.  I guess we will see at the 12Z and 0Z runs today and tonight, but not looking good around here for sure.  

[winterfreak]

At this point I just hope we can squeeze out an inch for a white XMAS.

[Bellona]

Looking okay still for my area. Probably around 6. Lower end of what I was hoping. Possibly 55mph winds so 1 inch would be enough. Maybe a better trend will start today. Here's hoping!

[Chambana]

My call in major jeopardy, lowering from 6.2” down to 2.3” MAX. A glorified December 2012 event. What could of been.

[gosaints]

Storm wont be fully sampled until tonight, but the sampling from last night and this mornings runs should be pretty good.

[Madtown]

NAM gonna turn things around right now!

[tStacsh]

Already hearing people in Michigan laughing this storm off.  Busiest travel day of the year Friday, and I'm hearing people are saying the weathermen are always wrong and they are traveling anyway.    Everyone else in the Midwest has watches up.  None in MIchigan except the N indiana offices counties in extreme southern Michigan.    

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

I'm back in the saddle bud!  It was a long travel day yesterday so I'm just catching up on all the model data.  You can imagine what it must be like coming back to Chi after 5 months!  Can't believe its been that long.  I left when it was the so-called "Dog Days of Summer" in early August and now coming home and being greeted by a potential Historic Blizzard from Mother Nature!  Just incredible.  I'm kinda nervous of the SE shifts of the main snow band and the weaker qpf totals.

Been trying to keep up with all the posts and I honestly read or skimmed through all of them.  Remember when I said "Unless this storm does something funky?"  Well, last nights 0z suite of runs did just that.  Looks like the back n forth will likely continue today but my gut says you and @Nikoare definitely in the game when this massive Beast of a Blizzard wraps up and you guys get hit hard under the Belly of the Beast.  

0z Euro... @indianajohn @Hoosier @westMJim @Jarod @Stacshyou guys look golden IMHO...

 

I just read this blog post from WGN this morning....

Awesome! Glad you made it back safe and in time to freeze over solid, lol. If I'm acclimated to 20's now, and expect to be cold, cannot imagine popping-in from balmy AZ

[Madtown]

NAM sure looks different...not sure its better though

[Hawkeye]

The 06z Euro is another significant jump east/northeast.  It always stinks when there is a clear downward model trend when the hype and potential is so big.  Oh, well.  There is one minor positive for my area.  The initial wave of snow had been expected to miss northwest.  Now, models suggest that wave will move through us, so we may be in a relative high spot for snow totals.

[Bellona]

Nam gives northern Iowa a decent front thump of around 4 inches. More in Southern MN 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Conditions are going to be horrid on a widespread basis, but if you had to ask me who is going to best put together the whole package of high snow amounts, extreme cold and high winds, it would be Indiana and probably back into parts of Illinois.

Agreed. Misery "ground zero" since The Mitt is always insulated to some degree, especially in the LES belts where snowfall will be maximized. Stays balmy in those regions vs south and west of us.

[Madtown]

At hour 51...looks like a frontal passage and that's it

[Tony]

I know the 0z runs have lots jumping ship on here but still this will be a powerhouse system with regards to wind and bitterly cold conditions. This was not a moisture laden system to begin with as the GOM was cutoff from this system but still respectable. Most of us just wanted a White Christmas and looks like that is going to happen. I myself would love to see a major blizzard around these parts with 2+ feet of snow but that is really hard to get in the MW. Yea it's a letdown but still time for things to change so I guess we model hug our way the next couple days.

[Bellona]

3 minutes ago, Madtown said:

At hour 51...looks like a frontal passage and that's it

Thought my eyes were deceiving me!

[gosaints]

Ya the front end on the NAM is a glorified frontal passage.  That being said I gaining some confidence that this part of the system has the chance to be complete fluff

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Welcome back, glad you made it safely!  Looking at last nights Euro that you shared, this has the potential to be one of the largest blizzard warnings I have ever seen.  Even if the drier GFS wins out it's still a blizzard. warning for a bunch of us.

Hoping the qpf trends back upwards, but yeah, the size and scope of coverage with this will be a condensed version of GHD-1. That storm was a stretched out snake across the CONUS. This will be a wider swath of headlines.