October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Front Ranger]

It was extremely impressive at PDX as well. Could be decades before we see another DJF this cold in the Portland area.

 

Yeah, definitely more impressive further south. Though lower BC had an incredible stretch December through early January.

[Front Ranger]

It will be a colder tri monthly average.  It's so obvious the table is set for this winter I can't believe others don't see it.

 

I think it looks good. It may end up being much snowier than last winter for your area. 

[snow_wizard]

It was extremely impressive at PDX as well. Could be decades before we see another DJF this cold in the Portland area.

 

Our standards are really low these days.  I will say Portland got hit harder than Seattle last winter and this one could easily end up opposite.  I'm speaking for the Seattle area.  We are due for a January far colder than even Portland saw last winter.  For a tri monthly average I think Seattle came it at about number 27 since 1895.  It wasn't THAT cold.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, definitely more impressive further south. Though lower BC had an incredible stretch December through early January.

 

They did indeed.  I remember them getting pummeled.  Seattle is the place that is due.

[HighlandExperience]

Our standards are really low these days. I will say Portland got hit harder than Seattle last winter and this one could easily end up opposite. I'm speaking for the Seattle area. We are due for a January far colder than even Portland saw last winter. For a tri monthly average I think Seattle came it at about number 27 since 1895. It wasn't THAT cold.

Last season really underperformed in the snow department for King County. A late November warning shot would be nice !

[snow_wizard]

I think it looks good. It may end up being much snowier than last winter for your area. 

 

Very possible.  I think we could see snow stick around for a long time if it plays out the way I think it will.  This one just looks amazing to me...at least from a cold standpoint.  I'm thinking of contacting Scott Sistek about this one, because I am so sure.

[snow_wizard]

Last season really underperformed in the snow department for King County. A late November warning shot would be nice !

 

It would be hard to get through the pattern being advertised without seeing some flakes at least.

 

Given the context we are in I'm not concerned about having cold in November like I normally am.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looks a little more showery on the 0z. Could see some flakes on Saturday for northern regions and higher elevations

[snow_wizard]

Euro looks a little more showery on the 0z. Could see some flakes on Saturday for northern regions and higher elevations

 

Right now the big question is how much cold continental air will enter the picture on this.  At any rate it looks to be a respectably cold event for this early.  Just to give you an idea of how hard it is to get really cold in the first week of November...All of the record lows for SEA are 28 or higher through the 7th.  If SEA was to drop to 27 it would their earliest such occurrence on record.  Would certainly be interesting if it happened.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

29 this morning at Eugene. The dry airmass really allowed things to cool off. 

[TT-SEA]

29 this morning at Eugene. The dry airmass really allowed things to cool off.

Definitely... 34 here and 39 at SEA. Way cooler than previous mornings.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely... 34 here and 39 at SEA. Way cooler than previous mornings.

 

That was one of the amazing things about the late October 2002 and 2006 airmasses. The extremely dry air which allowed temps to fall into the teens at many locations across the Willamette Valley. Often the low level moisture becomes a limiting factor in radiational cooling even with continental airmasses later in the season. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Quite a few teens in E. Oregon. 28 at Olympia. 

[WeatherArchive]

Here's a synoptic look back at the great October 2002 cold wave at 12:00 UTC which is morning for us.   http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=31&month=10&year=2002&hour=12&type=ncep&map=0&type=ncep&region=&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=31&month=10&year=2002&hour=0&type=ncep&map=0&type=ncep&region=&mode=0Here is 0:00UTC

 

Look how fast it retreats on the 1st of November due to El Nino that year.  

[Geos]

Where? 

 

SEA is going to end up around +0.5 for October.

 

WFO SEA is going to end up around +0.3

 

Pretty much a normal month.    Biggest departures for the month were -6 and +6 at SEA with the majority of the days within the -2 to +2 range.   Significantly wetter than normal as well. 

 

Here against the averages of RNT.

[Geos]

Very frosty morning here. Sitting at 32 here. First freeze of the season.

[TT-SEA]

Here against the averages of RNT.

 

I am not sure that is a good method given all of the microclimates in the Puget Sound region.  

[Geos]

I am not sure that is a good method given all of the microclimates in the Puget Sound region.  

 

Had to go off of something. I figured SEA was too far away and PAE was too close to the water. At least I am fairly close to Lake Washington.

[TT-SEA]

Had to go off of something. I figured SEA was too far away and PAE was too close to the water. At least I am fairly close to Lake Washington.

 

But its probably not accurate to say its been well below normal if SEA, WFO SEA, and RNT are all a little above normal comparing this month to their own long-term averages.   

 

My guess is that your location is probably a little above normal as well.  

[Front Ranger]

But its probably not accurate to say its been well below normal if SEA, WFO SEA, and RNT are all a little above normal comparing this month to their own long-term averages.   

 

My guess is that your location is probably a little above normal as well.  

 

Bigger picture, October 2017 will go down on the cool side regionally.

 

[Timmy]

Impressive temp gradient from my house to scappoose. 5 miles and 1400’ elevation drop. 45 at my house, 32 at scappoose

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The wind died off completely last night but it didn't cool off a lot here. Made it down to 41F for the low and will end this month without any sub-40F lows. The prospects for a Friday morning snowfall still look interesting over SE Vancouver Island.

[stuffradio]

They added the snow level now on that weather.us website for the ECMWF. Crazy good.

[Geos]

Bigger picture, October 2017 will go down on the cool side regionally.

 

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

It does show my location at least in the 0 to -1 area.

 

 

First morning I had to scrape the car windows.

[Phil]

Very cold winter in the works. The incredible lack of low pressure over the NE Pacific for the last several weeks is shown to continue for a long time to come. Analogs to this suggest a great winter coming. I'm leaning more toward a winter that features long frequent stretches of cold weather and drier than normal instead of shorter lived and more intense Arctic blasts, although a couple of sharp cold waves are pretty likely. Winters that would fall into the group of what I'm currently thinking would be ones like 1916-17, 1948-49, 1984-85, 1992-93, etc. All I know is something is up this season.

 

One caveat to this is the possibility of a wetter winter that would be made up of short lived AR events that could provide significant precip in spite of much of the winter being on the drier side.

I think it'll be a good winter overall, but I'm not sure it'll be a "great" winter. I've spent the last several days trying to figure out this head scratching pattern progression, and the conclusion I keep coming to is the relatively shallow/warm tropical tropopause (associated with residual westerlies @ 50mb from last year's +QBO) are still playing on the NPAC High.

 

These westerlies will collapse/reverse to easterlies at some point this winter. So I highly doubt the NPAC High will remain amplified like this through the winter. One of those weird cases where we're in between QBO phases during solar minimum, which usually produce big midwinter pattern shake-ups.

[Phil]

Not physically possible.

 

It would be as unlikely as one person killing dozens of people with an automatic weapon on the 32nd floor of a Vegas hotel.

Not funny.

[Deweydog]

Not funny.

My point exactly.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Had lots of frost and cold here this morning (low of 31 currently 33)... Let it begin!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think it'll be a good winter overall, but I'm not sure it'll be a "great" winter. I've spent the last several days trying to figure out this head scratching pattern progression, and the conclusion I keep coming to is the relatively shallow/warm tropical tropopause (associated with residual westerlies @ 50mb from last year's +QBO) are still playing on the NPAC High.

 

These westerlies will collapse/reverse to easterlies at some point this winter. So I highly doubt the NPAC High will remain amplified like this through the winter. One of those weird cases where we're in between QBO phases during solar minimum, which usually produce big midwinter pattern shake-ups.

 

Yeah we'll probably end up with a nice 2007/08 pattern.

[Phil]

Yeah we'll probably end up with a nice 2007/08 pattern.

That's still where I'm leaning, yeah.

[Jesse]

Had 32 on the nose here this morning. First freezing temp of the season. Lots of frost around.

[Timmy]

Had 32 on the nose here this morning. First freezing temp of the season. Lots of frost around.

bad news for mushrooms and other fruits and veggies.

[ShawniganLake]

34F here. Patchy frost.

 

12Z is looking wetter with the weekend low.

[wx_statman]

Had 32 on the nose here this morning. First freezing temp of the season. Lots of frost around.

 

Ouch. 

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS shows a system coming in Saturday night and giving the Olympia area a few inches. 850s are fairly suspect though so not buying it too much.

 

The low does take a perfect track for an ideal snowmaker in the Puget Sound area, if only this was mid-December.

 

 

Agrees with the ECMWF now.   The 00Z ECMWF showed this low much farther north than previous runs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would probably get snow with this weekend pattern if it was a couple weeks later in the season. Still thinking about 2000' for any sticking snow down here. Again much like the early November 2011 trough.

 

I really think a 2007/08 or 2011/12 type winter is much more likely than something "epic." My confidence in this is growing. I still think the lowlands will see 1-2 accumulating snowfalls.

[HighlandExperience]

12z GFS shows a system coming in Saturday night and giving the Olympia area a few inches. 850s are fairly suspect though so not buying it too much.

 

The low does take a perfect track for an ideal snowmaker in the Puget Sound area, if only this was mid-December.

 

That would be awesome. Will be interesting to see what the EURO shows today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That mid-week system next week looks like a really good snow producer for the mountains. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cool and unsettled looks to be the theme. Very November 1994ish.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah this is feeling like a winter with only 1 snow event here on the valley floor. 07-08 wasn't that great down here.