Doppler_Dustin Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Down to 14 this morning under clear skies 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 And just like that, 12z says what storm! LolNot terribly surprising at all. GFS is having trouble with the departing ridge. I’d expect to see it show up again on future runs. 12z GEM still showing something around the 28th/29th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 And just like that, 12z says what storm! LolWell the fact that people were getting hyped up over 2 runs made little sense to me. Gotta be patient, climo still doesn't quite favor those further south--The only big storm this time of year in the past decade or so was that Nov. 22nd storm 2015. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 You're right, this year's keyword for winter will be patience! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Well the fact that people were getting hyped up over 2 runs made little sense to me. Gotta be patient, climo still doesn't quite favor those further south--The only big storm this time of year in the past decade or so was that Nov. 22nd storm 2015. I've been told to be patient for years m8, I can only do it for so long! You're right though, still early, Thanksgiving storms are always rare, but I want signs that December will be amped up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Well the fact that people were getting hyped up over 2 runs made little sense to me. Hyped up? Or simply just talking about it? Much better than talking/complaining about a pesky ridge of death. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Clouds on this side of the lake kept it much warmer than areas on the west side of the lake. While many lows were in the teens to the west of the lake the low here was 29° and there were a few light snow showers but not much but did see some snow along the wipers of the car we keep outside. At this time with clouds and some peaks of the sun the temperature here is now 36° Not much wind so I will take a walk outside.Here are some snow on the ground reports from several locations around Michigan at AM: 5″ Munising and Champion, 4″ Darragh (Kalkaska Co.), 3″ Watersmeet and Trout Lake, 2″ Marquette. And The Gaylord NWS says: “Watch for slick roads & reduced visibility in some areas (especially west of I-75)”. Slick spots are mostly north of a line from Cadillac to Houghton Lake.Looking ahead here is SW Michigan it looks that temperatures will be near average for the most part and no major snow fall for the next two to three weeks or more. Of course that is as always subject to change Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Iowa and Illinois could be in a drought, GFS has nothing, no precipitation. Not sure when we will see rain or snow again. This sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Iowa and Illinois could be in a drought, GFS has nothing, no precipitation. Not sure when we will see rain or snow again. This sucks. It's been noted that when the models are forecasting an extended period of neutral AO (which isn't likely) it means that there are changes happening and they're a bit clueless. As Tom has shown, we're getting some hints/glimpses of where the road is leading, but not any real good picture yet. Enjoy the turkey, watch some football and parades. Thanksgiving's mostly been about cloudy and boring wx except for a rarity like '04 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 You're right, this year's keyword for winter will be patience!"Good things come to those who wait." That said, if it's mid December and nothing looks to happen, then it's appropriate to get frustrated and start losing patience. But come on, its too early in the year, met winter hasn't even began yet. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 It's been noted that when the models are forecasting an extended period of neutral AO (which isn't likely) it means that there are changes happening and they're a bit clueless. As Tom has shown, we're getting some hints/glimpses of where the road is leading, but not any real good picture yet. Enjoy the turkey, watch some football and parades. Thanksgiving's mostly been about cloudy and boring wx except for a rarity like '04 I agree, enjoy the food, family time and the tranquil weather for the time being. There is a lot of conflicting signals among the GEFS/EPS ensemble members so we just need to see how this all evolves over the next couple days. I will say, things are looking better not worse as we close out the month of November. Classic Split Flow developing in the NE PAC, Hudson Bay Vortex and the missing link we all were missing over the last few seasons (Polar Blocking). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 You're right, this year's keyword for winter will be patience!As said by one of my favorite bands of all time....... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Well, I went back to the November 2016 thread to see what was going on this time last year. From what I saw it appears we were prepping for a RAINSTORM up here in MN. Crazy just how different temps are this year, just need to get us a nice bowling ball! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Euro still has a storm. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112212/144/sfcmslp.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Euro still has a storm. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112212/144/sfcmslp.conus.pngNice to see the trough targeting CA and not OR/WA and tracking into the central Rockies. Could this be another last weekend repeat??? Models struggled badly with the northern and southern wave. I love seeing all that blocking west of Greenland and the eventual shifts in the track this run. Certainly looks like a track that the early October system took. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 12z Euro slowed this system down it looks like... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Snow breaking out in CO/NW KS/C NE this run...shift south is def noted and much slower...looks like it wants to dig a bit.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Defo band signature is nice to see over NE as the storm goes neg tilt...positive trends on the Euro in today's run... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Will post maps as the load but this storm has big potential...with all the blocking over the top, this storm has slowed down considerably and digs into a pretty large hit from NE to MN. Plenty of time for shifts and farther details that need to be ironed out but this could be our first Classic CO Low cutter of the season. Edit: D**n! This things strengthens to a 982mb beast near the U.P.! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 12z Euro...a little warm for MN posters but these details are not important for the time being. The key to take in from today's Euro run is that it is showing a more dynamic storm system coming out of the central Rockies and goes neg tilt while intensifying as it tracks towards the GL's. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 12z Euro...a little warm for MN posters but these details are not important for the time being. The key to take in from today's Euro run is that it is showing a more dynamic storm system coming out of the central Rockies and goes neg tilt while intensifying as it tracks towards the GL's.Just give us something to track, we are all begging of you mother nature!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Just give us something to track, we are all begging of you mother nature!!!Patience is paying off. If this system/track hold, I’ll be more convinced that LRC cycle #2 is about to begin. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Patience is paying off. If this system/track hold, I’ll be more convinced that LRC cycle #2 is about to begin.Agreed. Def looks on par to the Oct 6-7 system. More blocking over the top could kick it more east but idk if climo would favor that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 It's good to see consistency out of the Euro. GFS is all over the place, hard to pay much attention to it here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Not sure I would call anything consistent at this time but hopefully it stays the course. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Cloudy, cold day today. Temps remained in the 30s. Much milder in the days to come w temps flirting w 50F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 Accu-Weather thinks that, dry, seasonably cold weather persists through mid December for the Midwest and Plains. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 22, 2017 Report Share Posted November 22, 2017 18z GFS tried to develop the system but then it completely fizzled out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 A surge of very mild air will dominate the middle of the nation come next week. Highs may approach 60F in some locales. A strong ridge developing, that's for sure. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Looks like the Nebraska peeps gets smacked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 A surge of very mild air will dominate the middle of the nation come next week. Highs may approach 60F in some locales. A strong ridge developing, that's for sure.You could argue that we're overdue for a warm-up, but since the reversal a month ago I've been told I'd have about a week's worth of above normal days. All the touted warm-ups have been beaten back, leaving me with a handful of hours above normal. LoL Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Looks like the Nebraska peeps gets smackedDo tell..our Neb peeps? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Wow, it low 70s today in much of Western NE and up into Rapid City SD Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 You could argue that we're overdue for a warm-up, but since the reversal a month ago I've been told I'd have about a week's worth of above normal days. All the touted warm-ups have been beaten back, leaving me with a handful of hours above normal. LoLThat warm air will feel great. Bring it on! Great time to decorate the Christmas lights also. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Quick look at all the models..GFS doesn't really have a storm. The EURO has finally started to trend to the GFS but has a much deeper western trough still but as it moves east the northern stream is stronger and wins out against the southern wave. The CMC went way north with the energy into southern Canada. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 23, 2017 Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 This MJO pulse is really putting a wrench into the pattern. Starting to look really warm in the extended now with a strong ridging pattern setting up in the central/east for Week 1-2 as a trough replaces the West/SW ridge. You couldn't ask for better high latitude blocking but the spike in the WPO and relaxation of the EPO is not a good signal for colder weather. We're probably going to see hard cutters during this period until the MJO pulse relaxes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I have so much to be thankful for and a LOT to look forward to. Hope everyone has a splendid day with family and friends. God Bless 'Merica! Gobble Gobble... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2017 JMA weeklies look very warm over the next 4 weeks...FWIW, this model has been flipping back and forth every week so take it with a grain of salt. I remember for November it had very warm runs and occasionally showed some cold runs. JMA does agree with the high lat blocking continuing Week 2 which would argue for some room for a fight between the warmth and cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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