Geos Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Kitsap really getting hammered with rain right now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Kitsap really getting hammered with rain right now. http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/ATX/N0Q/ATX.N0Q.20171113.0125.gifWe only had about a half hour break in the rain today up here...been a very wet weekend which I’m all for in November! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Yeah I think you are the only one! I used to pay attention to JB but after a few seasons it was apparent he was major east coast bias. Ya think? 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/11/a-possible-strong-wind-event-tomorrow.html?m=1Cliff Mass about the possible windstorm. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Watch the December 15th - January 15th period. Window for your first blast is starting to come into clearer focus, IMO. Sounds like a good window. I think we could see a minor shot earlier than that though as in modestly chilly and a bit of lowland snow. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Sounds like a good window. I think we could see a minor shot earlier than that though as in modestly chilly and a bit of lowland snow.My gut is telling me the last week of November...after a bump near a positive PNA it looks to start crashing again around that time period. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 My gut is telling me the last week of November...after a bump near a positive PNA it looks to start crashing again around that time period.Did you eat Dewey? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Did you eat Dewey?No...if I did my post would have been much more witty and fun! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 That’s a pretty big window. I’ve bias corrected it to Dec 5 to Jan 5 in my mind. That is the most perfect window possible in my opinion. I would like that entire period filled with nothing but snow and cold. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Migraine-inducing off-equator SSTA warmth (from a seasonal forecasting standpoint). It's getting into "might f**k with things" territory now. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 We only had about a half hour break in the rain today up here...been a very wet weekend which I’m all for in November! Yeah it was nice to get a break for awhile. I finish up a yard project during the dry spell. 0.45" of rain so far today. Been really steady in the last hour or so. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 The surface winds have shifted from NE to SE and the Olympic rain shadow is now glaringly obvious . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Migraine-inducing off-equator SSTA warmth (from a seasonal forecasting standpoint). It's getting into "might f**k with things" territory now. So that warm east pacific is going to mess things up huh? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 So that warm east pacific is going to mess things up huh? Mark is polishing his forks. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 In other news, rain moving S to N through the region this evening. 47 with moderate rain now after a balmy 57/44 day. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 So that warm east pacific is going to mess things up huh?I don't think so. Not in the long run, at least. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Migraine-inducing off-equator SSTA warmth (from a seasonal forecasting standpoint). It's getting into "might f**k with things" territory now. So the warm SST's west of Mexico are threatening to over power the La Nina? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 What a difference a year makes. Much colder in the Arctic this year. Here's 2017 (top) vs 2016 (bottom): http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/975936A6-1E9C-4165-8237-FFF22A73CD18_zpst5bd04eh.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E1831B0B-405A-4D7D-B8BA-1B159FF06FDA_zpsq6lvnav1.png 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 If my calculations are correct that line of thunderstorms offshore is tracking directly toward Monmouth. Hopefully this track will be a favorable sign for the upcoming winter! E1796135-2E27-485E-A54E-8A0F02C01E44.pngMeanie. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Meanie.That’s a good track! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Talk about the Pacific being shut down. This is RIDICULOUS for November! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Talk about the Pacific being shut down. This is RIDICULOUS for November!Wow. Yeah nothing but a sea of anticyclones out there. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 So the warm SST's west of Mexico are threatening to over power the La Nina?Yes and no. Off-equator EPAC convection will expand the Hadley Cell there and could force ridging over the SW US and southern plains this winter (in the absence of strong high latitude blocking). Latitude matters, though. It's not like we're talking about a poleward-shifted Niño SST signature or anything. Off equator convection is pretty typical of La Niña systems, but warmth of this magnitude could really mess with things for awhile. It doesn't matter as much for the PNW, but it certainly does matter for folks in CA and the SW US. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 WRF puts a little 50 knot bullseye right over the metro area. #doomsdayscenario 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 WRF puts a little 50 knot bullseye right over the metro area. #doomsdayscenarioI think this storm is going to sneak up on folks here that don't read these boards. News feels like they are downplaying it. I'm excited. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 WRF puts a little 50 knot bullseye right over the metro area. #doomsdayscenario50 knot equal to 55mph? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 50 knot equal to 55mph?57.538972401175 mph, give or take. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 WRF puts a little 50 knot bullseye right over the metro area. #doomsdayscenarioSustained 2m wind? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 00z WRF shows 45-55kt gusts over PDX metro. I think it's overdoing things. Knock 10-15mph off that, so 30-40mph higher gusts. Yawn. 6z GFS in 3 hours 17 minutes! 00z ECMWF 40-50mph gusts PDX metro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 It's autumn. Time for a standard autumn storm to stir the leaves. Don't cha think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Looks like a pretty run of the mill fall storm... sounds nice. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 0z GFS is pretty warm for the West from day 7 onward. Strong ensemble support as well. All models now basically support a period of sustained warmth for the West. We'll see how long it lasts. As mentioned a few days ago, leading analogs would suggest it probably lasts through early December at least. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Looks like a pretty run of the mill fall storm... sounds nice. Yeah, mid November is the perfect time for them because it takes care of the leaves as the foliage starts to wane. Aesthetically I like having the trees bare by December. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 All models now basically support a period of sustained warmth for the West. We'll see how long it lasts. As mentioned a few days ago, leading analogs would suggest it probably lasts through early December at least. Such an epic call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Such an epic call.Epic pattern progressions. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Getting gusts of 31mph and the wind speed is steadily ticking up. Good timing on getting my anemometer fixed and mounted with a more secure pole . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 That squall that just came through was something else. Very heavy rain and gusts between 40-50mph made for a fun five minutes. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 0.72" of rain overnight. Currently 42. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2017 Report Share Posted November 13, 2017 Winds have been ramping up for awhile. Trees are definitely swaying this morning. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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