November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Phil]

You did say we were going to be in agony these next 4 weeks.

Yeah, the pattern looks to remain very hostile through the first half of December, in my opinion.

 

Signs of improvement should start manifesting towards the winter solstice or just afterwards, followed by a massive NPAC anticyclone/-PNA during January, which should plunge much of Northwest North America into the freezer.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Haha I would take the ice out of the animal troughs and throw it on the deck to help cool the surface so it would stick.

Hahaha Everyone on here is a true blue weather nut!! My mom stops by my repair shop and some times I may be looking at the models and she just shakes her head and smiles. I used to fall asleep to the weather radio under my pillow haha. 

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

KOLD front.

Nice to see a little more kool sneak in before the torch. Daddy will take what he can get.

[Guest El nina]

Haha I would take the ice out of the animal troughs and throw it on the deck to help cool the surface so it would stick.

One day it was snowing but not sticking so I got some rags and started drying off the deck so it'd stick.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One day it was snowing but not sticking so I got some rags and started drying off the deck so it'd stick.

 

We are all insane.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

One day it was snowing but not sticking so I got some rags and started drying off the deck so it'd stick.

Hahahahah

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I would put a metal pie pan in the freezer then set it outside to see how much snow piled up on it.

[Deweydog]

Nice day.

[BLI snowman]

Nice day.

 

Meh. If all of winter is exactly like this then I'm going to be so upset. This is really frustrating.

[WeatherMan101]

[Jesse]

Nice day.

Saturday was technically nicer, despite the cold anomalies. The mountains were out!

 

But today has been decent too.

 

[MossMan]

When I was a kid our house had a huge wrap around uncovered deck so I would shovel all the snow to one spot in front of our huge living room windows and make one ginormous pile of snow so I could look at it long after it would warm up. I’m sure my parents loved that.

[Front Ranger]

I used to make it snow by going up on the roof and throwing flour off it. Sometimes coke.

[stuffradio]

It's been raining all day since yesterday. More than 2" of rain since yesterday. So nice! (sarcasm)

[Geos]

Haha I would take the ice out of the animal troughs and throw it on the deck to help cool the surface so it would stick.

 

I did something similar. I crushed up a bunch of ice and scattered it on the porch to try to get the snow to stick better! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Meh. If all of winter is exactly like this then I'm going to be so upset. This is really frustrating.

It won't be

[Geos]

When I was a kid our house had a huge wrap around uncovered deck so I would shovel all the snow to one spot in front of our huge living room windows and make one ginormous pile of snow so I could look at it long after it would warm up. I’m sure my parents loved that.

 

Did that more than a few times!   In fact I would create the pile in a shady area.

[Deweydog]

18z!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS backing off on December, but ballz to the wallz in January...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yikes, that mountain snow pattern early next week being watered down even more...

[Jesse]

It won't be

That dude really needs to breathe into a bag or something...

[Guest El nina]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would freeze a snowball and then replace it after the next snowfall. Worked well until that 5 year snow drought in the late 90s early 2000s...

[Front Ranger]

18z!

 

If nothing else, the timing of the brief trough next week continues to move up.

[Front Ranger]

I use too freeze my snowballs and throw them at people at school

 

Frozen snowballs can do some serious damage.

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z!

<_>

[MossMan]

18z!

I keep falling for this!!!!!! And I will probably continue to do so!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Before we look for the prospects for potential blocking/arctic air, in the day 4-8 period we need to look at the very real threat at a southerly wind event and possibly a significant regional wind storm. I've noticed a few runs of the ECMWF, GEM, and GFS have tinkered with this idea. Nice trough offshore. Additionally the exit jet looks fairly healthy 140-150kts with good jet support for continued strengthening all the way to the WA coast. The upper level pattern will be fairly conducive with a deep trough offshore and fairly strong jet streak rounding the base of the trough. Models will iron out the finer details in the coming days, but they have been very consistent with the overall 500mb pattern from the Coast to 150 W. We shall see...

[Phil]

The ECMWF are developing a mammoth -EPO/-NAM signal for the month of January. Pretty far out there, but it's an unusually strong signal, all else considered there.

[Gradient Keeper]

While we all wait for the inevitable snowmaggedon, I found a site that has archived NWS AFDs and decided to look through some from December 2008 - what a time to be alive! 

 

Just put in the 6 character PIL (AFDSEW), the date range, and relive the joy.

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/#

This is awesome! Thanks!

[crf450ish]

I use too freeze my snowballs and throw them at people at school

When I was a little boy I used to pee in my super soaker and squirt the butthead teenager neighbor kid.

[Jesse]

When I was a little boy I used to pee in my super soaker and squirt the butthead teenager neighbor kid.

When I was a boy I used to burn things, wet the bed and torture small animals.

[Phil]

Arrgh.

 

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/the-kp-index

[MossMan]

While we all wait for the inevitable snowmaggedon, I found a site that has archived NWS AFDs and decided to look through some from December 2008 - what a time to be alive!

 

Just put in the 6 character PIL (AFDSEW), the date range, and relive the joy.

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/#

I’m a major nerd and saved all of the SWS’s and warnings from 2008...here is the first SWS from Dec 8th 2008...

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

315 PM PST MON DEC 8 2008

SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-

EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-

SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-

HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-

EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-

NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-

WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-

315 PM PST MON DEC 8 2008

 

...MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

 

A MAJOR CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN NEAR THE END OF

THIS WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON OVER

THE WEEKEND.

 

THE TRANSITION WILL GET UNDERWAY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD

FRONT AND ITS UPPER TROUGH SWING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...COLDER

AIR WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON OVER THE

WEEKEND.

 

WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...AT LEAST DURING

THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS

WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. PEOPLE SHOULD BE READY FOR WEATHER THAT

IS COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICY ROADS...BURST OUTDOOR PIPES...AND

ENDANGER PETS.

 

THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED SNOW TO THE CASCADES AND

OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED

SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

 

THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN

WASHINGTON LOWLANDS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS

TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL OCCUR.

 

WESTERN WASHINGTON RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS THIS SITUATION

UNFOLDS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISITING OUR WEB PAGE

AT WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE (ALL LOWERCASE).

MCDONNAL

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

[Phil]

Arrgh.

 

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/the-kp-index

So far only kp4. Hopefully we don't go any higher.

 

We should be clear of this cloud sometime on the 22nd.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So far only kp4. Hopefully we don't go any higher.

 

We should be clear of this cloud sometime on the 22nd.

What are the implications?

[Timmy Supercell]

Nicely consistent showers this evening. Refreshing to see more rain on the east slopes.

[Guest El nina]

What are the implications?

No snow this winter.

[Deweydog]