PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Short-term models all calling for a @MR.SNOWMIZER Special later today. It’s probably going to happen.

 

32 degrees here with moisture a fee miles to the south.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Overall though the GFS isn’t great. One bite at the apple and it slides east. 

The big picture is still pretty much the same though.  As usual it's all over the place with the details.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Lakeview hit -6 this morning. Burns -2

Kind of like earlier in the winter.  Cold even before the good stuff gets here.  The air mass coming in behind this cold front is even colder than the one behind the last trough.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Then possibly down to freezing again later tonight.  Too bad that brief shot of warmth comes through.

Maybe early tomorrow morning... but the ECMWF shows temps in the upper 30s through most of the night.    The dewpoint stays above freezing tonight and all day tomorrow then goes below freezing with clearing tomorrow night. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The big picture is still pretty much the same though.  As usual it's all over the place with the details.

Yeah, don’t misinterpret what I’m saying. I’m just commenting on the run at face value, not making a forecast. 

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’ve seen the whole run on tidbits. It’s meh. 

Nice looking GOA block. Details kind of suck for us. Trough doesn’t really tap into any of the really cold air. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Cold flow offshore low northwest good flow cold snow strong.

[snow_wizard]

Petty wintry out there this morning.  Dark and foggy with heavily frosted trees.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Could start flurrying here in a bit judging by radar.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Impressive. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Impressive. 

I’m on my way out there to green mountain 

[MossMan]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Impressive. 

About the 2nd shade of green for me! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Holy pancakes Rob

[snow maniac]

Light rain here 31.0 degrees

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Cold flow offshore low northwest good flow cold snow strong.

Kold me like.

[MossMan]

Sun is officially gone. 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Petty wintry out there this morning.  Dark and foggy with heavily frosted trees.

Completely frozen here with. Clouds. Racing in. Maybe will see flakes flying 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Cold flow offshore low northwest good flow cold snow strong.

Are you having a stroke. “FAST”

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Nice looking GOA block. Details kind of suck for us. Trough doesn’t really tap into any of the really cold air. 

This appears to be the small rug pull we all know is inevitable during the evolution of these things.  We also know rug pushes will probably be forthcoming.

[ShawniganLake]

36F. Light rain and drizzle this morning 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Could start flurrying here in a bit judging by radar.

Did you mean for your previous post to be not understandable?

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

36F. Light rain and drizzle this morning 

That’s a bad sign when it’s raining at your spot. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing a little in the coast range. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Petty wintry out there this morning.  Dark and foggy with heavily frosted trees.

No frost here. I think I’ve had only one freeze this month, but I’m not being diligent about keeping records.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This appears to be the small rug pull we all know is inevitable during the evolution of these things.  We also know rug pushes will probably be forthcoming.

Hmmmm… not really a rug to pull. As you said earlier this is just details fleshing out. 

[Doinko]

GFS gets there in the clown range

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS gets there at the end…

[Blizzard777]

Ice pellets in Tigard currently on my walk to get coffee

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

GFS gets there in the clown range

Jinx 

[LowerGarfield]

Only just now at 32F. Still very frosty out even at mid morning.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Went from calm to snow and breezy here in 2 minutes.  32 degrees. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm… not really a rug to pull. As you said earlier this is just details fleshing out. 

Yeah...I was just commenting on how the GEM and GFS both miss the sweet spot on this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...I was just commenting on how the GEM and GFS both miss the sweet spot on this run.

GFS goes all in at the end. Check it out. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS gets there at the end…

That it does.  That shot around day 8 is dangerously close to very good also.

[SimplySmoothWX]

Ice pellets in Hillsboro

[Cascadia_Wx]

Not expecting anything too notable today, but it’s pretty exciting to be in a chilly pattern period in mid to late January, especially with the possibility of bigger stuff down the road.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SimplySmoothWX said:

Ice pellets in Hillsboro

 

4 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

Ice pellets in Tigard currently on my walk to get coffee

Nothing here yet at the moment, but that's probably a good sign to see something brief

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not expecting anything too notable today, but it’s pretty exciting to be in a chilly pattern period in mid to late January, especially with the possibility of bigger stuff down the road.

Maybe colder than January 2022?

[Doinko]

Snowing! Edit: Mixed with ice pellets actually

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On the whole topic of today. We bottomed out at 27 this morning. Brrrrr

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Doinko said:

 

Nothing here yet at the moment, but that's probably a good sign to see something brief

Any frozen precip even just in the sky is a win today in my book. Especially considering we already have a freeze under our belt for the day.

Crazy how quick it got dark here in the last 15 minutes. It went from bright and sunny to low overcast. Temp holding at 34.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Maybe colder than January 2022?

The last 3-4 days of the month would have to really overperform, but I’d say it’s back on the table!

[High Desert Mat?]

Doesn’t there have to be a rug before said rug gets pulled? 

[GHweatherChris]

Moderate snow, small flakeage.

[Blizzard777]

It’s sticking

[fubario]

Whole lotta nuthin here in oly so far. Virga central.

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snowing a little in the coast range. 

We did it Andrew!!

[snow_wizard]

Winthrop dropped to 2 after a high of 24 yesterday.  Never ceases to amaze me how cold that place is.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not expecting anything too notable today, but it’s pretty exciting to be in a chilly pattern period in mid to late January, especially with the possibility of bigger stuff down the road.

Absolutely.  The last half of the month may actually end up in the respectable range at least.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Winthrop dropped to 2 after a high of 24 yesterday.  Never ceases to amaze me how cold that place is.

Lots of negatives in eastern oregon this morning.