PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Cascadia_Wx]

Some big flakes coming down now. Better than I was expecting.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Easy rule of thumb... no snow for Randy then throw it out.   That is nonsensical.  

[FroYoBro]

Real snow now. Wet and 35 degrees, but legit big flakes. 

[Doinko]

Big flakes here too

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Medford hit 23 this morning 

[ShawniganLake]

38 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I've learned this year that the 925 temp isn't always the final say so. Me and Chris have had snow a couple times with the 925 above zero. But then I think maybe the observation of the current 925 isn't accurate?

Thank you wet bulb cooling. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Surface dewpoints also important in this set up... per the new 12Z ECMWF dewpoints shown this morning, at 4 p.m. and at 1 a.m. tomorrow morning.

Surface conditions currently suck for snow up this way. YVR’s most recent report was temperature 38.5°F, dew point 36.9°F. Normally I would say “no way!” at this point. But the stuff coming in on the radar looks heavy. So we shall see.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Has let up a little here now. PDX was reporting 36 and light snow on the hour.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GEFS actually gets really nice.  Just takes a bit longer than the 0z and 6z to get the coldest.

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Medford hit 23 this morning 

What part of King county is that 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 34.5. Got down to 27 this morning. Coldest January temp so far.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

One of my chickens died yesterday and it was my fault. We always give them treats like smashed up chips in the bottom of the bag, I shake the bag and they come running up to the house or out of the woods. Yesterday I gave them a bunch of smashed up tortilla chips like I always do. I was doing yard work and I kept hearing a weird sound like weezing and found that one of the smaller hens was struggling to breath. Long story short she ate the ships to fast and didn't drink water and she choked to death. I tried everything I could in a panic trying to fix her, held her upside down tapping her back, rubbed her neck and throat area, stuck a small clear tube down her throat gently blowing air into her lungs to try and clear the blockage.  Kept her alive for 45 minutes pumping air into her lungs. Never have I experienced anything like this. When I was holding her upside down I got a massive amount of small smashed up chips out of her . I know it's just a chicken and I might sound dumb but they are pets to us not live stock.  10 years ago I would of just killed it and not blinked but I've become very sensitive to death the last few years and this was my fault .  Sorry for long post but I had to tell someone the story.

[Doinko]

Snowing really nicely here.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Surface conditions currently suck for snow up this way. YVR’s most recent report was temperature 38.5°F, dew point 36.9°F. Normally I would say “no way!” at this point. But the stuff coming in on the radar looks heavy. So we shall see.

Mostly dry and 41F here in Duncan ATM.  There was a dusting of snow early this morning on the hills above about 2000ft. 

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Surface conditions currently suck for snow up this way. YVR’s most recent report was temperature 38.5°F, dew point 36.9°F. Normally I would say “no way!” at this point. But the stuff coming in on the radar looks heavy. So we shall see.

Yeah...the low level cold seeped in from the ESE with this.  Bad for Whatcom County.  Still only 32 here.

[Deweydog]

31 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Isn’t graupel usually convective? I’m not sure what to call some of what’s been falling this morning. A mix between flurries and sleet. Seems to be closer to straight snow for the time being.

I assume the fact it’s kind of a dynamic system helps. The radar returns definitely has a bit of a convective look to them.

[Doinko]

Euro day 5

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just a mix here right now. Still 33 degrees so I'm sure it will switch back to snow with the front.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

One of my chickens died yesterday and it was my fault. We always give them treats like smashed up chips in the bottom of the bag, I shake the bag and they come running up to the house or out of the woods. Yesterday I gave them a bunch of smashed up tortilla chips like I always do. I was doing yard work and I kept hearing a weird sound like weezing and found that one of the smaller hens was struggling to breath. Long story short she ate the ships to fast and didn't drink water and she choked to death. I tried everything I could in a panic trying to fix her, held her upside down tapping her back, rubbed her neck and throat area, stuck a small clear tube down her throat gently blowing air into her lungs to try and clear the blockage.  Kept her alive for 45 minutes pumping air into her lungs. Never have I experienced anything like this. When I was holding her upside down I got a massive amount of small smashed up chips out of her . I know it's just a chicken and I might sound dumb but they are pets to us not live stock.  10 years ago I would of just killed it and not blinked but I've become very sensitive to death the last few years and this was my fault .  Sorry for long post but I had to tell someone the story.

Wow.  Very touching I think.  I know what you mean about being more sensitive to death.  A lot of extended family members and two friends have died in the last few years.  Also just found out my father in law has pancreatic cancer.  Life is precious!

Posting this might also keep somebody from making the same mistake.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Euro day 5

Has the classic look of the 0z.

[T-Town]

Some flakes here now. 37 degrees. 

[Doinko]

Past four runs for day 5

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

One of my chickens died yesterday and it was my fault. We always give them treats like smashed up chips in the bottom of the bag, I shake the bag and they come running up to the house or out of the woods. Yesterday I gave them a bunch of smashed up tortilla chips like I always do. I was doing yard work and I kept hearing a weird sound like weezing and found that one of the smaller hens was struggling to breath. Long story short she ate the ships to fast and didn't drink water and she choked to death. I tried everything I could in a panic trying to fix her, held her upside down tapping her back, rubbed her neck and throat area, stuck a small clear tube down her throat gently blowing air into her lungs to try and clear the blockage.  Kept her alive for 45 minutes pumping air into her lungs. Never have I experienced anything like this. When I was holding her upside down I got a massive amount of small smashed up chips out of her . I know it's just a chicken and I might sound dumb but they are pets to us not live stock.  10 years ago I would of just killed it and not blinked but I've become very sensitive to death the last few years and this was my fault .  Sorry for long post but I had to tell someone the story.

I really respect and relate with this level of value for life.

[Doinko]

Day 6

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Euro day 5

Deep trough in the SE. otherwise looks promising 

[Deweydog]

Big flakes here in La Center!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Big flakes here in La Center!

Heading up to get another Instagram shot of the Olympia airport?

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Big flakes here in La Center!

Dry here now, but the snow was a very nice surprise

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF shows the opening salvo being next Thursday night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wintry 

[TT-SEA]

Band of dark clouds rolled through here but now some sun again.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF shows the opening salvo being next Thursday night.

No weird cutoff in the block this run too. I remember the Euro was much stronger than the GFS with the blocking during the December event and the GFS eventually caved

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Deep trough in the SE. otherwise looks promising 

That will take care itself as the pattern evolves.

[Doinko]

Day 7. Huge block


00z at the same time

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I really respect and relate with this level of value for life.

Thanks brother. 

[Phishy Wx]

I've been all in for over a week now.  still solidly in.  It's coming

[Doinko]

Day 8

[SouthHillFrosty]

Getting reports it’s snowing in South Hill

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sleet has switched over to mostly snow with a light dusting. 33 degrees and snow swirling around. Very wintry day. 

[Phishy Wx]

they're saying we may get an inch or 2 this evening

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Big flakes here in La Center!

Gambling?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Day 8

Holy cow

[BLI snowman]

Already more snow than last January!

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...I was just commenting on how the GEM and GFS both miss the sweet spot on this run.

Way too much +NAO on the 12z GFS verbatim. Doesn’t have to be crazy, but you’d need at least some degree of downstream blocking to trap the cold in western Canada/force it south, instead of letting it slide into eastern Canada.

[Phishy Wx]

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Getting reports it’s snowing in South Hill

Patiently waiting 

[BLI snowman]

Bit too far west perhaps?

[Phishy Wx]

chance of Thundersnow in Stevens pass this afternoon

[SnowySeeker50]

Light rain shower and 32 degrees

[Doinko]

Day 9. Too far west unfortunately but the block looks great. Just a bit of a shift east would be great