PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It will probable happen too.

I’m in the green!!! 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, fubario said:

Misread, sorry.

NWS doesn't seem too concerned. This is for Westport:

They should pay attention to the ECMWF.   

[RentonHill]

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

They should pay attention to the ECMWF.   

Only noobs disregard the ECMWF 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Christensen87 said:

06z CFS is great! Come on GFS, get it together. Heading to Port Townsend today for the weekend. Should be a beautiful drive! 

Riding the CFS.

 

The mechanical bull is gentler, though.

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A few of the meso models are showing about a 3 hr window for some snow here, Between 9am and noon or so looks like the window. A brief period of offshore flow with some cool air in place just might work out for a little snow. This one was sneaky and i didn't even see it coming.

Everyone’s just been hyper focused on the end of the month. Gfs and gem have been showing this cool system and low snow levels for tomorrow for about a week. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Was just going to mention that the ECMWF is much sharper with that trough late next week.   

[RentonHill]

Day 8

[Front Ranger]

Euro looking promising...

[RentonHill]

Day 9

[RentonHill]

Day 10

[TacomaWx]

The block might be setting up in a better spot after day 10. Still a long ways to go for things to get interesting but we’re moving finally after the dullsville weather since Christmas.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

The block might be setting up in a better spot after day 10. Still a long ways to go for things to get interesting but we’re moving finally after the dullsville weather since Christmas.

Not hard to imagine the pattern shown on the 12Z ECMWF at day 10 crashing hard immediately afterwards.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

The block might be setting up in a better spot after day 10. Still a long ways to go for things to get interesting but we’re moving finally after the dullsville weather since Christmas.

Anything before February is gravy. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

A little lowland snow for tomorrow afternoon and evening is showing up on the Euro, too.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not hard to imagine the pattern shown on the 12Z ECMWF at day 10 crashing hard immediately afterwards.

Definitely could…don’t want to get hung up on the details of one good run. Ensembles have been decent for the most part for the last few days though. Hopefully this pattern can deliver in a big way and not 500-1000ft snow levels. 

[TacomaWx]

Looking at it from an 850MB temp map there’s definitely some cold to work with up north with energy trying to push south. Starting to get interesting now that this is showing up on operational models within day 10…long way to go still. 

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looking at it from an 850MB temp map there’s definitely some cold to work with up north with energy trying to push south. Starting to get interesting now that this is showing up on operational models within day 10…long way to go still. 

Look who’s all conservative now that he’s got a job riding on it!! Jkjk

[fubario]

Snyder mentioning wind now..

[RentonHill]

Day 8. EPS

[TacomaWx]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Look who’s all conservative now that he’s got a job riding on it!! Jkjk

LMAO It’s going to be hard to contain my weenieism on my forecasts. I’m gonna try to play things conservative and within climo for the most part. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 42/32 day yesterday. Socked in with fog and low clouds most of the day but it cleared out enough in the evening to score a freeze before midnight.

Low of 31 here today just after midnight. Low clouds and fog reformed late and it’s currently 37 and mostly cloudy. Very nice to have the wintertime chill back.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

LMAO It’s going to be hard to contain my weenieism on my forecasts. I’m gonna try to play things conservative and within climo for the most part. 

It gets very different when you share forecasts with others. Being a weenie and geeking about what might happen is very different from advising others what is likely to happen. One has to put one’s own personal desires aside.

A rule of thumb that almost never fails me is that if it gets within 24 hours and both the Euro and the GFS are calling for it, it is probably going to happen. Sometimes (not often) the official forecasts are at variance with that rule, and those are the times I share my forecast with friends (and this has given me a reputation of being some sort of weather genius, even though I am just applying a fairly simple rule).

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It gets very different when you share forecasts with others. Being a weenie and geeking about what might happen is very different from advising others what is likely to happen. One has to put one’s own personal desires aside.

A rule of thumb that almost never fails me is that if it gets within 24 hours and both the Euro and the GFS are calling for it, it is probably going to happen. Sometimes the official forecasts are at variance with that rule, and those are the times I share my forecast with friends (and this has given me a reputation of being some sort of weather genius, even though I am just applying a fairly simple rule).

My boss said to give him just one forecast update a week….but I told him that would likely be unreliable and it would need to be twice a week. Models are obviously unreliable past 72-96 hours. I don’t want to say with certainty any forecast past 72 hours.  

[Slushy Inch]

[Slushy Inch]

4 hours ago, Kayla said:

Day 10+ aside, the control run should never really be used for snowfall amounts (kind of wished they excluded that parameter). It has a resolution of 18km so most of what you are seeing is terrain bleed. It’s really just another member of 51 other members that is run four times everyday.
 

At this range, it’s much more wise to hang your snow hopes on what the ensemble means are showing.

If you looked at the 500mb heights of the run, you would know it was not terrain bleed.

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

My boss said to give him just one forecast update a week….but I told him that would likely be unreliable and it would need to be twice a week. Models are obviously unreliable past 72-96 hours. I don’t want to say with certainty any forecast past 72 hours.  

If you are able to nail down a snow forecast around these parts at 72hrs, you should probably be forecasting professionally. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

My boss said to give him just one forecast update a week….but I told him that would likely be unreliable and it would need to be twice a week. Models are obviously unreliable past 72-96 hours. I don’t want to say with certainty any forecast past 72 hours.  

Yeah, that's one of my benchmarks. If it's not within 72 hours, I regard it as very clown-rangy and if I do share any model insights with friends, I make sure to phrase things very tentatively.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

If you looked at the 500mb heights of the run, you would know it was not terrain bleed.

15 day ensemble snow maps really aren’t any more valuable than the operational or control runs.  The 500mb pattern in the long range ensembles is really all that matters. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

If you are able to nail down a snow forecast around these parts at 72hrs, you should probably be forecasting professionally. 

With snow I wouldn’t say anything with certainty past 24-36 hours. I’d just say maybe past 24 hours. My boss isn’t concerned with snowfall as much mostly rainfall totals and freeze potential…which is a bit easier and even with that I wouldn’t want to give a forecast more than 72 hours on rainfall totals. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is a blast on the GEM. Pretty backdoor. 

[Slushy Inch]

Little bit too far west. Issue is that troughing gets sucked southeast like on control.

[Slushy Inch]

Yuck .

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Yuck .

One F higher. It’s over 

[RentonHill]

[Kayla]

2 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

Salmon /crab fishing? I know several different people in WA that do it every year as a tradition. They go to Alaska and work at a cannery or a seafood boat and make more money in two months than they do the rest of the year.

Ha not quite! It would be for some helicopter work up there.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Little bit too far west. Issue is that troughing gets sucked southeast like on control.

Control run is a disappointing mess.    The control run giveth and taketh away.    From 50 inches of snow to basically nothing.   Good news is that the 00Z run will probably show 6 feet of snow in Seattle based on the assumption that there is no gap between the Olympics and the Cascades and Seattle is at 5,000 feet in elevation!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I’ve seen worse. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

NAM 3km and HRRR aren’t calling for anything in the lowlands tomorrow, but HRDPS is.

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Control run is a disappointing mess.    The control run giveth and taketh away.    From 50 inches of snow to basically nothing.   Good news is that the 00Z run will probably show 6 feet of snow in Seattle based on the assumption that there is no gap between the Olympics and the Cascades and Seattle is at 5,000 feet in elevation!  

The good news is, looking at the control run ever is a waste of time!

[Slushy Inch]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One F higher. It’s over 

It's over!

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Timmy said:

The good news is, looking at the control run ever is a waste of time!

What if it shows a general lack of summer troughing?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Completely mid

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

The good news is, looking at the control run ever is a waste of time!

Good for the general pattern at the 500mb level compared to the ECMWF through day 10.   Pretty meaningless for snow totals and surface temps though.   

When there is a model battle going on it can be used to support or contradict the ECMWF run through day 10 and that can be somewhat valuable if its totally different than the ECMWF.

[Cascadia_Wx]

40 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

My boss said to give him just one forecast update a week….but I told him that would likely be unreliable and it would need to be twice a week. Models are obviously unreliable past 72-96 hours. I don’t want to say with certainty any forecast past 72 hours.  

Not sure how well off you are listening to advice from someone here who seems overly confident in their abilities despite never putting out a forecast that I can remember. I think you’ll do just fine based on what I’ve seen from your model analysis/etc.

Really cool that your boss has given you this unofficial duty!

[RentonHill]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’ve seen worse. 

it definitely needs work for anything serious. Only one or two really good members in there. Lots of time to change

[Phishy Wx]

25 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

NAM 3km and HRRR aren’t calling for anything in the lowlands tomorrow, but HRDPS is.

edit: nevermind that's CM

[Phishy Wx]

not worried, all systems go

[Cascadia_Wx]

The chance of low snow levels tomorrow looks interesting.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The chance of low snow levels tomorrow looks interesting.

Meso models have ramped up amounts over here in this afternoon's runs.  Might be a sneaky inch or 2