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December 2017 Observations and Discussions

Niko

By Niko
in East of the Rockies

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St Paul Storm
St Paul Storm

The 2017/2018 rink has been shoveled. Still a bit of snow left on the right side but took me 3 hours to do this today. Boards and hockey nets go in tomorrow. Man I love winter here.

Jaycee
Jaycee

Dude seriously, what is going on with you?? I thought it was kinda funny at first, but its getting crazy now. I live in the same town as you, and i throw my share of shade but COME ONNN. Imagine if yo

Jaycee
Jaycee

I think California should be a topic to discuss. Think about all of the destruction from these fires. We think that SW Ridge sucks here, just look what it's doing to those areas that are centered righ

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Tabitha Newbie

Tabitha

Posted
Posted

FWIW, 00z NAM looks like the GFS by Sat am...

 

This is prior to the completion of the 0z Suite; but I do believe that a very significant and prolonged snowfall is coming up for the Black Hills from Thursday through Sunday; with a general 6 - 12 inches accumulating by the last day of the year; maybe up to 18 in some high spots if it has all the elements and really comes together.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

This is prior to the completion of the 0z Suite; but I do believe that a very significant and prolonged snowfall is coming up for the Black Hills from Thursday through Sunday; with a general 6 - 12 inches accumulating by the last day of the year; maybe up to 18 in some high spots if it has all the elements and really comes together.

I would have to agree with that considering the ingredients that are coming together: 1) Bitter cold air 2) PAC moisture 3) Very high ratio snows.  Hope you score bigly and make a dent in that snow drought.

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Minny_Weather Grand Master

Minny_Weather

Posted
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Is your house creaking and crackling??? At those temps, you can go outside and throw hot water in the air and watch the magic of physics before your eyes.

 

Wish I was there for that right now! I'm flying back tomorrow so hopefully I have cold to play with around new year's.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
Posted

The 00z guidance is extraordinarily dry for the system tomorrow. Less than an inch looks likely. Kudos to the euro, which had the right idea from the getgo unfortunately. I am 100% assuming the next several systems will turd out like this one has given that they are very, very similar to the Thursday system. Just not Iowa’s winter(again).

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
Posted

I would not trust the GFS AT ALL with the weekend system. Apparently verification scores are similar to the CMC. Given that the euro is worlds apart and seems to have nailed this upcoming system, I’d hedge towards its significantly drier solution. Let’s remember when the GFS showed 6+ for much of Iowa just yesterday for the Thursday system, luckily it seems the WFOs saw through it and given that they aren’t buying the moisture output on the GFS only makes me more confident in my decision to toss it as well.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Craig-OmahaWX Newbie

Craig-OmahaWX

Posted
Posted

Probably going to a razor thin line between a bunch of snow and not much again. CMC still all over the place and looks a lot different then it did on 12z. Yes GFS may be alone on this one but its been doing this consistently for like more then a week.

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

I would not trust the GFS AT ALL with the weekend system. Apparently verification scores are similar to the CMC. Given that the euro is worlds apart and seems to have nailed this upcoming system, I’d hedge towards its significantly drier solution. Let’s remember when the GFS showed 6+ for much of Iowa just yesterday for the Thursday system, luckily it seems the WFOs saw through it and given that they aren’t buying the moisture output on the GFS only makes me more confident in my decision to toss it as well.

Those are good points but the Thu system is a weak open wave, however, the weekend set up is rather different with better moisture transport.

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Craig-OmahaWX Newbie

Craig-OmahaWX

Posted
Posted

Those are good points but the Thu system is a weak open wave, however, the weekend set up is rather different with better moisture transport.

I bet he would have a different opinion if the GFS was actually targeting him with all that snow lol. 

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
Posted

Those are good points but the Thu system is a weak open wave, however, the weekend set up is rather different with better moisture transport.

I just wouldn’t be surprised when it dries out....

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
Posted

The NAM is picking up on the weekend system. I was not confident about the GFS either but to have a shorter range models sniffing it out is actually giving me restored faith in a storm next weekend.

Well the NAM is partially a GFS derivative as you said earlier. This may or may not be affecting the run, but is something to keep in mind nevertheless.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

Posted
Posted

Well the NAM is partially a GFS derivative as you said earlier. This may or may not be affecting the run, but is something to keep in mind nevertheless.

 

To be honest, there was a time last year when the EURO wrecked Nebraska, and it's the king, so I invested all my enthusiasm in it. The GFS was hella consistent showing a different solution, and it turned out to be right and the EURO shyt the bed. I'll just go out and say, I wouldn't rule out either solution, I think both models have their shares of good and bad moments.

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
Posted

To be honest, there was a time last year when the EURO wrecked Nebraska, and it's the king, so I invested all my enthusiasm in it. The GFS was hella consistent showing a different solution, and it turned out to be right and the EURO shyt the bed. I'll just go out and say, I wouldn't rule out either solution, I think both models have their shares of good and bad moments.

My rule of thumb is pick whichever model shafts nebraska :P. Seems to have worked well in the past.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Craig-OmahaWX Newbie

Craig-OmahaWX

Posted
Posted

My rule of thumb is pick whichever model shafts nebraska :P. Seems to have worked well in the past.

http://www.composingdigitalmedia.org/f14_dmtp/webs/sand/evil3.jpg

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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/

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