December Weather In the PNW

[MossMan]

Dropping rapidly, down to 29.4. If we can keep clouds at bay until sunrise that would be excellent! Then have it cloud up after that to keep temps capped. In this “marginal” airmass I wasn’t expecting to stay below freezing today, bodes well for the next few days!

[Jesse]

And suddenly the 18z looks quite good. Lots of ensemble improvement too.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And suddenly the 18z looks quite good. Lots of ensemble improvement too.

For some...

[Guest El nina]

And suddenly the 18z looks quite good. Lots of ensemble improvement too.

For when...

[snow_wizard]

Ensembles... Not so bad. 

 

Yes indeedy!  Something starting to show up as we get into January.  There's a new dip on the 850mb temperature graph around New Years Eve also.  Looking like the big pattern change will happen in the Jan 5 to Jan 10 time frame.  Bastardi says he expects a big warmup in the East around that time.  Right now an amplified regime seems to be the default this season.  If that continues we will be golden.

[seattleweatherguy]

Yes indeedy! Something starting to show up as we get into January. There's a new dip on the 850mb temperature graph around New Years Eve also. Looking like the big pattern change will happen in the Jan 5 to Jan 10 time frame. Bastardi says he expects a big warmup in the East around that time. Right now an amplified regime seems to be the default this season. If that continues we will be golden.

Phil was spot on.

[snow_wizard]

NWS updated zone forecast for the EPSL is calling for 1-4 inches tomorrow night.

 

I have a feeling they probably have a lot of internal bickering going on with this.  My money is on the 11pm to 6am time frame for pretty generalized snow in King County.  Anything before that is a wild card.  I will say the east wind has the right feel for frozen precip tomorrow.  I wouldn't rule out freezing rain for places like here.

[snow_wizard]

For when...

 

Looks like another cold shot possibility just before New Years.

[Jesse]

For when...

Mostly the mid-long range. I haven’t been tracking tomorrow’s system too closely.

[seattleweatherguy]

Bothell high is only 36 tommrow

[MikeInEverett]

Bothell high is only 36 tommrow

Always trust the almighty weather app

[snow_wizard]

Bothell high is only 36 tommrow

 

The Euro has been going for 33 or 34.  That would be pretty impressive.

[MossMan]

Another thing, as long as we can start and stay all snow up here the snow will stick instantly, even to the roadways. Ground is rock solid frozen now!

[seattleweatherguy]

Always trust the almighty weather app

I'd rather read the models and have links but so far been reading more, posting less.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Already down to 15 at Pendleton. That is impressive.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Already down to 15 at Pendleton. That is impressive.

Maybe the cold air coming through the gorge will be colder than modeled. Still would only be FZRA in the lowlands with the southerly 850mb flow. Stupid northerly track.

[Guest Dome Buster]

I love the gorge!!! Without it there is no chance of anything. Really is such a wild card, it keeps things interesting. Love that 15 in Pendleton.

[snow_wizard]

On Christmas morning the NWS has the snow level sloping from the surface at Everett to 400 feet for Tacoma.  Probably a really good stab at it.  Looking pretty likely anywhere north of Tacoma will see something.

[HighlandExperience]

On Christmas morning the NWS has the snow level sloping from the surface at Everett to 400 feet for Tacoma. Probably a really good stab at it. Looking pretty likely anywhere north of Tacoma will see something.

I really hope we can start with snow tommorow evening

[Guest Dome Buster]

Down to 31 here already. Already at the forecast low for the day.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 38 here

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

32 here after high of 34.

[Slade]

Down to 29F here after a high of 32F, cooling off quickly as clouds roll in later this evening.

[westcoastexpat]

On Christmas morning the NWS has the snow level sloping from the surface at Everett to 400 feet for Tacoma. Probably a really good stab at it. Looking pretty likely anywhere north of Tacoma will see something.

No so sure about my neck of the woods. Dry upper levels and a southerly track look to hurt those of us in the northern part of this subforum.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Satellite loop looks eerily similar to one front in 2008.

[snow_wizard]

I really hope we can start with snow tommorow evening

 

We will have to see how cold the east wind is.  I could envision the entire thing being snow.  It's pretty rare to start an event off with a low level cold / evap cooling situation and have it end with CAA.  That is especially true when you look at how pathetic the 500mb pattern is going to be.  Kind of fascinating.

[snow_wizard]

No so sure about my neck of the woods. Dry upper levels and a southerly track look to hurt those of us in the northern part of this subforum.

 

Yeah...it could be hard for much moisture to get that far.

[The Swamp]

On Christmas morning the NWS has the snow level sloping from the surface at Everett to 400 feet for Tacoma.  Probably a really good stab at it.  Looking pretty likely anywhere north of Tacoma will see something.

 

Maybe we can keep this clearing tonight and get some impressive lows before the clouds start to slither in.  Then the clouds can cap the cold.

 

I feel pretty confident that it will be an all rain event in the Puyallup valley.  I feel no norther winds.  The air does not feel super dry as in low DP's.  Just doesn't feel like.  I know. Not the best way to tell what will happen.

 

Any thoughts on this secondary low that is to develop off the Oregon Coast.  I think that could gum up the works.

[Guest Dome Buster]

NWS is forecasting snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. What a bunch of P's afraid to be wrong. So silly that in 2017 we can't do any better.

[snow_wizard]

Maybe we can keep this clearing tonight and get some impressive lows before the clouds start to slither in.  Then the clouds can cap the cold.

 

I feel pretty confident that it will be an all rain event in the Puyallup valley.  I feel no norther winds.  The air does not feel super dry as in low DP's.  Just doesn't feel like.  I know. Not the best way to tell what will happen.

 

Any thoughts on this secondary low that is to develop off the Oregon Coast.  I think that could gum up the works.

 

The dry air has gotten to where I live with dps in the low 20s.  SEA has a dp of 23.

 

Stampeded Pass is at 15 which falls within the range I like to see going into these things, when an east wind is going to part of the picture.  I don't think the second low will be much of a factor for us...at least directly.

[seattleweatherguy]

NWS is forecasting snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. What a bunch of P's afraid to be wrong. So silly that in 2017 we can't do any better.

Nws downplaying snow for the metro area and only admitting to snow north of everett. Maybe that will change in the ooz

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Incredibly dense fog here. 37 degrees.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Incredibly dense fog here. 37 degrees.

Got a spare room up here in Happy Valley at 450'. Should be a much better chance here.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Had a high in the 40’s today with Crystal clear skies... currently, 33 degrees with dew point of 28.

[Perturbed Member]

GFS had the minimum temp in Pendleton at 17F. It is already 10F with a dp of 7 now. hmmm

[Guest El nina]

Temp actually dropped after about noon. Got up to 37 then was 34 by 3. It's now 30 with a dewpoint of 26.

[Timmy]

Hrrr is pretty bullish on moisture in the early morning. Although it isn’t showing up as snow. I would think if anything would be snow it would be that first band. We may be in for a nasty zr event in Portland otherwise

 

Edit: it also shows no areas west of the cascades below freezing at all tonight. I’m sitting at 29 now. Wonder if it isn’t handling the gorge right?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Already a cozy 1 degree above zero at my cabin property!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GFS had the minimum temp in Pendleton at 17F. It is already 10F with a dp of 7 now. hmmm

Wow, that's incredible. Might be the reason it's been a warm outlier when it comes to the Gorges influence. Snow cover will do that to you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

40/35 at PDX so far today, but I bet they get to freezing by midnight...