HighlandExperience Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Dry patterns are almost always chilly in the winter. Its not surprising or unexpected that it would be chilly when half the days or more have been dry since the start of meteorological winter. Particularly in notoriously stagnant places like OLM.I should remind everyone that Atlanta barely made it above freezing today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Dry patterns are almost always chilly in the winter. Its not surprising or unexpected that it would be chilly when half the days or more have been dry since the start of meteorological winter. Particularly in notoriously stagnant places like OLM.You ought to write travel brochures Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 As far as I can tell, the closest -ENSO pattern matches to these first 7-10 days of January are: 1962, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1996, and 2014. Lot of mixed signals as far as how the rest of January might go, but the overall theme seemed to be blockiness alternating between Alaska, just offshore, and over the west coast. Generally drier than normal. Higher than normal chance of Arctic air late month into early February. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 The next few weeks don’t look all that chilly to me. Probably near average. To me it feels like we are building up a lot of “karma” right now, as you might call it, considering heights have generally been higher than average around here since the end of October or so. In other words calling for a warmer last half of the month seems a little out of left field considering we will be pretty due for some solid troughing by then, IMO.Persistence be persistin'... Feels to me like if the snow globe is gonna finally get a really good shaking, a period of strong Aleutian/GOA troughing might take over for a bit. It's just as or even more overdue than western troughing. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dome Buster Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Mark Nelsen was saying on the 5 o'clock news that a pattern shift is most likely setting up at day 8 with a more consolidated jet. I know it is just a start but it would be better than this crap. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Mark Nelsen was saying on the 5 o'clock news that a pattern shift is most likely setting up at day 8 with a more consolidated jet. I know it is just a start but it would be better than this crap. nothing like some zonal flow to lift spirits! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Mark Nelsen was saying on the 5 o'clock news that a pattern shift is most likely setting up at day 8 with a more consolidated jet. I know it is just a start but it would be better than this crap. Interesting he would say that. The EPS points to a brief period of troughing, but the pattern looks pretty progressive. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest El nina Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Smells like upper level ridging outside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Smells like upper level ridging outside. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow, this post is sure to lift people's spirits... Hope your wrong...Your you're is wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 27/25 here in Bend today. The fog we've had since last night has actually been squeezing out some light snow. Have had a dusting here all day with light snow continuing this evening off and on. 1 Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 0z GFS Day 7.5 was close, if the the pattern wasn't progressive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather girl Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 27/25 here in Bend today. The fog we've had since last night has actually been squeezing out some light snow. Have had a dusting here all day with light snow continuing this evening off and on.I love fog. Enjoy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Well that looked promising...for part of a day or so... Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Canadian looked slightly better. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 That is actually a nice chilly little trough on the GFS about a week out. I continue to be encouraged by the looks of the pattern at the end of the run. Trough digging off the coast of Asia and throwing up a Central Pacific ridge. I hope something comes of that trough next week to tide us over. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 The interesting thing about the pattern a week from now is if you didn't see the frames afterward it would be easy to imagine that pattern digging in and really getting us. That outcome could still happen, but the models have been awfully insistent we are going to have a brief Aleutian low. That may be for the best with the resultant pattern reset. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Your you're is wrongOh darn... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 E56D5A1B-C715-4329-9630-D4F4E5E294B9.pngNot bad ... good mountain snow pattern. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Not bad ... good mountain snow pattern.Yea. Could be worse. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 I love fog. Enjoy.I do as well. Definitely not an opinion you here very often here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest El nina Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 I do as well. Definitely not an opinion you here very often here.I prefer fog in the garage, even less of a popular opinion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 0z ECMWF Day 7 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010300/168/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Day 8http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010300/192/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Day 9 ..... An Actual consolidated jet?http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010300/216/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Day 10 NOPE that ridge has a real boner for us.... jeezhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010300/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 It does look like that awful split flow is going to end in about 8-9 days. --6z GFS in 2 hours 14 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Does someone have a link for old 500mb maps? I want to say the PSU site has them but I can’t find them now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Sky has totally cleared now and the moon is so bright out there. Beautiful night... still 42 degrees with an east wind. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 @11:31 PM near west Gresham it's down to 34.8(2.5 degrees colder than this time last night), dewpoint 24.7, with east winds 35-45mph it's really roaring out there. Perfect night. I do see the cold air is intensifying a bit east of I-205 to western Gorge as well as a bit drier air mass now too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Does someone have a link for old 500mb maps? I want to say the PSU site has them but I can’t find them now. Try this: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2008.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Try this: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2008.htmlThat is the one I was thinking of. I had just found it. Thank you for the reply. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 The interesting thing about the pattern a week from now is if you didn't see the frames afterward it would be easy to imagine that pattern digging in and really getting us. That outcome could still happen, but the models have been awfully insistent we are going to have a brief Aleutian low. That may be for the best with the resultant pattern reset.Hopefully it’s “brief” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 3.9 earthquake near Morton, wa. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/uw61362346#executive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 32 under high clouds this morning. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks like it was clear all night... moon is still shining through the window this morning as it starts to set. 39 here right now... 36 at SEA. Might make it to 50 out here today with sunshine. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 29 here with lots of frost again. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 29 here with lots of frost again. Actually up to 40 here now. I see its 46 just to the east of here at 4,340 feet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 3, 2018 Report Share Posted January 3, 2018 Actually up to 40 here now. I see its 46 just to the east of here at 4,340 feet.29 in hotlanta Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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