January Weather In the PNW

[Timmy]

Sounds like something you would say

It actually doesn’t at all, I rarely forecast anything on this forum beyond my own interpretation of models not exceeding clown range gfs.

 

“Big Mack’s are gross”. Sounds like something I would say though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

For those of you that care about the Euro weeklies, they are out. Free 850 and 500mb maps at Wx.graphics no ridging over us, a signal starting late January for bridging in Alaska with cool 850's in the PNW. Warm 850's week 2, cooling off week 3 with what looks like wet NW flow? 10 days later the flat ridge in the Pacific heads to Alaska. This is the ensemble mean, not the control run.

You can post a few maps if you want.

 

Day 20

 

 

Day 30

 

 

 

Day 45

 

Days 30 and 45 look intriguing considering their that far out. Definitely some hints of an Arctic Blast signal.

[ShawniganLake]

38/28 here today. Currently 36 with light rain.

[Phil]

You can post a few maps if you want.

 

Day 20

 

 

Day 30

 

 

 

Day 45

 

OT, but all I want is an Arctic blast of the ages centered over Montana/Idaho and a modest SE-Ridge to set up the snowstorm train in my backyard for a few weeks, instead of suppressing everything into FL. That used to happen all the time in the 1850-1900 period, but really hasn’t since the 1970s.

[Dave]

18z GFS ensembles were vomit worthy.

[weatherfan2012]

OT, but all I want is an Arctic blast of the ages centered over Montana/Idaho and a modest SE-Ridge to set up the snowstorm train in my backyard for a few weeks, instead of suppressing everything into FL. That used to happen all the time in the 1850-1900 period, but really hasn’t since the 1970s.

we also have it seen a negative nao winter period since the mini version of it in the 2009-2011 time frame since then it has been stuck in a permanent positive mode the summer has been the oppersite with the nao.

[weather girl]

Ahhhhh...

 

Our forum version of Trump tweets.

Boom.  Mic drop. 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

0z GFS in 1 hour 17 minutes

Nailed it.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The Euro weeklies a few weeks ago said the PNW was going to be in the icebox now, so hard to take it seriously. Although I am fairly cold with a good amount of snow. Anyway, these hours were already posted, but I like this perspective.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

The Euro weeklies a few weeks ago said the PNW was going to be in the icebox now, so hard to take it seriously. Although I am fairly cold with a good amount of snow. Anyway, these hours were already posted, but I like this perspective.

 

eps_z500a_d5_globe_720.png

 

eps_z500a_d5_globe_960.png

The 500mb anomaly/ridging looks to be centered at 150 W. That's a good sign.

[luminen]

January ain't looking promising folks. It's either February, some sloppy snow in March, or nothing at this point.

[Deweydog]

January ain't looking promising folks. It's either February, some sloppy snow in March, or nothing at this point.

BREAKING NEWS

[Phil]

The Euro weeklies a few weeks ago said the PNW was going to be in the icebox now, so hard to take it seriously. Although I am fairly cold with a good amount of snow. Anyway, these hours were already posted, but I like this perspective.

 

eps_z500a_d5_globe_720.png

 

eps_z500a_d5_globe_960.png

Well, if that vortex over Greenland verifies..I promise you it will not happen. Get rid of that f**ker.

[snow_wizard]

The Euro weeklies a few weeks ago said the PNW was going to be in the icebox now, so hard to take it seriously. Although I am fairly cold with a good amount of snow. Anyway, these hours were already posted, but I like this perspective.

 

eps_z500a_d5_globe_720.png

 

eps_z500a_d5_globe_960.png

 

Yeah....pretty solid run on the weeklies today.  Nice to see the mean good as opposed to just the control like previous runs.  It appears to take us from a -PNA / neutral EPO to -PNA / -EPO as we get to the very end of the month.

[snow_wizard]

January ain't looking promising folks. It's either February, some sloppy snow in March, or nothing at this point.

 

Still time for part of January to deliver.

[Phil]

we also have it seen a negative nao winter period since the mini version of it in the 2009-2011 time frame since then it has been stuck in a permanent positive mode the summer has been the oppersite with the nao.

Yep, 2008/09, 2009/10, & 2010/11 were mostly -NAO on the low frequency. It was a fantastic stretch, and it resulted in both a drop in the global temperature and a period of coast-to-coast storminess that hasn’t been replicated since.

 

Anxiously waiting for the AP index to plunge back to those insanely low levels and tank the annular mode(s) like the good old days.

[snow_wizard]

...the MJO forecasts still aren't updated today.

[Front Ranger]

January ain't looking promising folks. It's either February, some sloppy snow in March, or nothing at this point.

Things can change quickly.

[snow_wizard]

Things can change quickly.

 

They probably will now that a major pattern shake up is well advertised.

[Phil]

The La Niña signature in the Pacific is really strengthening right now, FWIW. Looks like a late climax.

[snow_wizard]

Does anyone agree with me that the whole "bomb cyclone" terminology being used for the East Coast storm is just stupid?  I hate it when they use weather terms that have been in existence for decades and try to make it sound like something that never happened before.  The whole polar vortex thing a few years ago was the same.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Does anyone agree with me that the whole "bomb cyclone" terminology being used for the East Coast storm is just stupid?  I hate it when they use weather terms that have been in existence for decades and try to make it sound like something that never happened before.  The whole polar vortex thing a few years ago was the same.

 

It is silly, but predictable.

[snow_wizard]

The La Niña signature in the Pacific is really strengthening right now, FWIW. Looks like a late climax.

 

This does have the earmarks of a great back half winter if we can stay away from a raging EPO.  I was commenting the other day the anemic SOI in recent weeks is probably related to the positive PNA we had in some regard.  The tropics are extremely important to what happens in the mid latitudes as you know.

[HighlandExperience]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Does anyone agree with me that the whole "bomb cyclone" terminology being used for the East Coast storm is just stupid? I hate it when they use weather terms that have been in existence for decades and try to make it sound like something that never happened before. The whole polar vortex thing a few years ago was the same.

You're right.

[Gradient Keeper]

Does anyone agree with me that the whole "bomb cyclone" terminology being used for the East Coast storm is just stupid?  I hate it when they use weather terms that have been in existence for decades and try to make it sound like something that never happened before.  The whole polar vortex thing a few years ago was the same.

Yes. AND it's just as annoying when people in both of my weather groups keep commenting on the stupid terminology that the media insists on using for clicks and likes. It makes the laymen person think this kind of storm is unprecedented or it's something new. NOPE. Dumb dumb dumb.

 

--

0z ECMWF in 1 hour 12 minutes

[Phil]

Does anyone agree with me that the whole "bomb cyclone" terminology being used for the East Coast storm is just stupid? I hate it when they use weather terms that have been in existence for decades and try to make it sound like something that never happened before. The whole polar vortex thing a few years ago was the same.

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with it.

 

It was actually one of the fastest non-tropical pressure drops ever recorded, and perhaps the fastest non-tropical pressure drop ever recorded at that low of a latitude.

 

Storms like this one aren’t common, as far as life cycle is concerned.

[weatherfan2012]

The La Niña signature in the Pacific is really strengthening right now, FWIW. Looks like a late climax.

interesting if this could make a run to a moderate La niña if so that would be a tottel unexpected outcome as most went with weak dying la niña as the winter progress and instead this one maybe getting stronger as the winter gos on.

[Phil]

Even with a Storm King type of system, the national weather forecasters still wouldn't blink in our direction.

 

"Well, looks like your typical breezy day in the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, New England is seeing strong 30mph gusts. Be careful out there folks!!"

That’s bulls**t.

[HighlandExperience]

[Kayla]

I heard Mars is tropical compared to what the East Coast is in for!!

[HighlandExperience]

I heard Mars is tropical compared to what the East Coast is in for!!

Lol yea I saw that on CNN. Parts of east coast colder than mars especially mt Washington

[HighlandExperience]

This is just comical

[Gradient Keeper]

How many MB did this storm deepen over 24 hours? I believe the big regional wind storm  we had here November 13th, 1981 the low deepened 38mb in 24 hours. Correct me if that's not right. Would TWC have been freaking out over that? I'm sure they wouldn't

 

#WinterStormNOPE

[Phil]

The media doesn’t cover PNW snow because it doesn’t snow very much in the cities there. Sorry to put it that way, but it’s just reality.

 

Does the media print headlines every time it snows in Burlington VT or Albany NY? Of course not. They don’t care about blizzards in tiny a** PNW suburbs either, and they never will.

[Kayla]

Lol yea I saw that on CNN. Parts of east coast colder than mars especially mt Washington

 

With an average temp of -67F on Mars you can chalk that one up as more sensationalist news...

[weatherfan2012]

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with it.

It was actually one of the fastest non-tropical pressure drops ever recorded, and perhaps the fastest non-tropical pressure drop ever recorded at that low of a latitude.

Storms like this one aren’t common, as far as life cycle is concerned.

agreed and even those the impact here was less then special it's still very much in a forecasting since an exciting storm to have track and seen and study on.

[HighlandExperience]

[Phil]

If it were actually 15*F with thundersnow and 60mph winds in Seattle, you bet the media would hype the s**t out of it.

 

The problem is, that doesn’t happen.

[MossMan]

This is just comical

Does anyone actually watch CNN anymore? Last time I watched was 1989 during Hurricane Hugo coverage! Has gone downhill since.