January Weather In the PNW

[Timmy]

Drunk uncle is great if you like bad model runs!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice day. Not so boring southern flow.

Mildly interesting

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18z continues to warm up the pattern in the mid range. It’s nowhere even close to lowland snow thru next Wednesday. First, this weekends chance was washed out. Now next week is looking pretty unlikely.

Sounds like all winter for us.

[Dave]

Check out the wundermap for Eugene. Many locations over 70. If the airport can get lucky, this could be the all time Jan record.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

[TT-SEA]

18z continues to warm up the pattern in the mid range. It’s nowhere even close to lowland snow thru next Wednesday. First, this weekends chance was washed out. Now next week is looking pretty unlikely.

 

Seems to be the trend lately.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still looking good next Thursday here. Long range is dank.

[ShawniganLake]

Maybe a top 10 warm January is on the table.

 

I think we can say that 1996 analogue is looking less and less realistic.

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

Still looking good next Thursday here. Long range is dank.

 

Yeah... for the foothills above 1,500 feet on one day.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

70 at Roseburg

[Geos]

Check out the wundermap for Eugene. Many locations over 70. If the airport can get lucky, this could be the all time Jan record.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

 

Heat wave.

I bet your spring flowers are coming up. 

[Phil]

Well, a brief excursion into 2007/08 territory is also a possibility. The 18z GFS and the GGEM ensembles also take this route. So far, the EPS are the most bullish on Arctic air making it into the PNW. Either way there will probably be a cool excursion of some sort to close January, and it should last through the first 10 days of February.

 

The possibility of another “big league” Arctic attack also appears to be increasing for the Midwest during the second half of February. The month could still finish warm overall east of the Rockies, but I’m starting to have doubts.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Such a boring winter...worst since 02-03

[BLI snowman]

I could live with the 18z. Clearly not going to be anything substantial this next week but the mountains do well. Last few days of the month are what bears watching.

[wx_statman]

70 at Roseburg

 

They bumped to at least 71 in the past hour. Broke monthly record of 70 from 2005. 

[Geos]

Such a boring winter...worst since 02-03

 

That was a really boring winter back in the Midwest too. Lots of cold and most of the time dry.

[AlTahoe]

Temperature and snowfall anomalies (relative to date).

 

Lol gulf coast.

 

I have been running about +12F for the last 50 days or so. It still hasn't snowed here and my relatives South of Atlanta have had 6 times more snow than I have had. I haven't recorded a low temp below 28F this month and our average is 16F. This winter is one for the record books for sure. We might get 3" of snow Friday morning bringing our season total up to 4" Lol

[Deweydog]

40's at KSEA at peak heating without Fraser River outflow. Not bad.

[ShawniganLake]

I have been running about +12F for the last 50 days or so. It still hasn't snowed here and my relatives South of Atlanta have had 6 times more snow than I have had. I haven't recorded a low temp below 28F this month and our average is 16F. This winter is one for the record books for sure. We might get 3" of snow Friday morning bringing our season total up to 4" Lol

That’s insane.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Last night's 00z ECMWF EPS ensemble snow mean is the highest yet for the Portland-Troutdale location through day 15. It's showing an average of 7 inches of snow. One member goes all the way to 14 inches. There's definitely going to be potential as we head into February.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011700/city/KTTD_2018011700_forecast_EPS_precip_360.png

Wow, 12z ECMWF EPS ensemble snow mean just increased to 9 inches. One member has 18 inches of snow. The 50% of ensemble members in the middle show 6 to just under a foot of snow through day 15.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011712/city/KTTD_2018011712_forecast_EPS_precip_360.png

[Phil]

I have been running about +12F for the last 50 days or so. It still hasn't snowed here and my relatives South of Atlanta have had 6 times more snow than I have had. I haven't recorded a low temp below 28F this month and our average is 16F. This winter is one for the record books for sure. We might get 3" of snow Friday morning bringing our season total up to 4" Lol

Wow, that’s unbelievable. My condolences.

[AlTahoe]

That’s insane

All of the summer activities are still available to do which is nice I guess. In the last week I have mt biked, paddle boarded and played Disc golf.

Our average snowfall through January is 99". We are currently at 1"

Most likely going to finish the month below 8"

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Uh oh..

 

Score?!

Yeah, the NW would score.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

They bumped to at least 71 in the past hour. Broke monthly record of 70 from 2005.

That 70 followed an ice storm too. Was 26 degrees and aloft like 60.

[wx_statman]

That 70 followed an ice storm too. Was 26 degrees and aloft like 60.

 

That was a pretty crazy thaw in Portland too. Went from a high of 32 with ZR to a monthly-record 66 F. 

[Deweydog]

Looks like the northern valley will dodge the adiabatic train wreck happening down south.

[Geos]

It's like near 60 in Bellingham and about 44 in Abbotsford, BC right now. 

 

NE Winds stop pretty much at Lynden right now. 

[TT-SEA]

Live view from Tahoe... great skiing!  

 

[ShawniganLake]

Wow, 12z ECMWF EPS ensemble snow mean just increased to 9 inches. One member has 18 inches of snow. The 50% of ensemble members in the middle show 6 to just under a foot of snow through day 15.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011712/city/KTTD_2018011712_forecast_EPS_precip_360.png

That’s incredible considering the coldest day is being shown 41/32.

[TT-SEA]

That’s incredible considering the coldest day in being shown 41/32.

 

Yeah... its crap.   Something is not right there.   

[wx_statman]

Looks like the northern valley will dodge the adiabatic train wreck happening down south.

 

1-24-2015 all over again. 68 at EUG but only 60 at PDX.

 

#robbed

[Deweydog]

That’s incredible considering the coldest day is being shown 41/32.

If east wind density is high enough it's certainly possible...

[SalemDuck]

Yeah... its crap.   Something is not right there.   

I hardly have ever commented on this but it's because of resolution, Troutdale on the ensembles is more like 1000-1500', same with Hillsboro. PDX is the more accurate location, which shows an ensemble mean of 3" by the end of the 15 days.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That’s incredible considering the coldest day is being shown 41/32.

That's to be expected considering it's that far out. For any Arctic blast that the models are hinting at 15 days out you're going to have warm members still. It's just the mean right now.

[HighlandExperience]

Live view from Tahoe... great skiing!

 

Looks like early July. Pathetic winter

[ShawniganLake]

I hardly have ever commented on this but it's because of resolution, Troutdale on the ensembles is more like 1000-1500', same with Hillsboro. PDX is the more accurate location, which shows an ensemble mean of 3" by the end of the 15 days.

Makes sense. Some of the suburbs of Vancouver BC are like that. Showing feet of snow on the ensemble last year, when the pattern looked pretty borderline.

[AlTahoe]

Looks like early July. Pathetic winter

 

Live view from Tahoe... great skiing!  

 

I don't know how to post images on here but check out the Donner ski ranch web cams. They are about 10 miles from Alpine Meadows. Shows what a difference not having snow-making makes

http://webcams.donnerskiranch.com/dsr/webcams

[weatherfan2012]

[TT-SEA]

I don't know how to post images on here but check out the Donner ski ranch web cams. They are about 10 miles from Alpine Meadows. Shows what a difference not having snow-making makes

http://webcams.donnerskiranch.com/dsr/webcams

 

Wow!

 

[AlTahoe]

Wow!

 

Places that have skiing above 8k have about a foot or so on the ground remaining from the warm November storm that we had. So Heavenly, Kirkwood, Mt rose and upper Squaw Valley do have some natural snow cover.