February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[The Swamp]

Tim. Tell us about how warm it's going to be next Friday.

 

Come on. Just for giggles and shits.

 

You know you want to.

 

Tell us when it warms and rains next week,

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just woke up to snow falling. Maybe 1/2" so far., 

[BLI snowman]

Surprised to see it snowing and sticking here at 250'. 

 

Not gonna last long but nice nevertheless.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS is orgasmic. Multiple surface lows dropping right down the coastline repeatedly. This is going to be very memorable if it pans out.

[Tyler Mode]

Just a little bit of elevation making a difference this morning.  Just over 1/2" here in Battle Ground, and nothing I can see down in Vancouver.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

39 with some light rain

[SilverFallsAndrew]

32 with moderate snow. About 1.5" so far. 

[Tyler Mode]

In a winter like this, you have to be happy with what little we can get!  1" here and it looks like the main stuff is about to wrap up.  Never dropped below 33.

[ShawniganLake]

GFS is orgasmic. Multiple surface lows dropping right down the coastline repeatedly. This is going to be very memorable if it pans out.

Temps look pretty marginal after the middle of next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 2" now. Overachieving.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble mean drops to almost -10C for PDX now. 

[Phil]

[Gradient Keeper]

Ensemble mean drops to almost -10C for PDX now. 

Yeah. Best ensembles yet. PDX mean temp -9c with a cluster -10c to -12c. The Dalles -13c with several members to -17c, and lastly Seattle -12c mean and a bunch down to -14c. Confidence is growing for a modified blast into at least the Gorge if not PDX northward.

[TT-SEA]

I looked outside around 3 a.m. and there was about an inch of snow here and it was on the trees as well... but the wind has been pretty loud since that time and now there just a little slush left and 35 degrees.  

[TT-SEA]

Holy crap.

 

This would be insane for a D5 ensemble mean, let alone a D16 ensemble mean.

 

 

 

Is it the flip in the Atlantic that has you so impressed?   

 

To me... this looks like a long overdue deep trough over the West.   Seems very logical that would have to happen in March after an insanely warm and dry winter in CA.    The actual contour lines are sort of meaningless... the anomaly centers are what is important.  

[TT-SEA]

GFS is orgasmic. Multiple surface lows dropping right down the coastline repeatedly. This is going to be very memorable if it pans out.

 

I suspect the focus of the pattern in the long range (and probably much of March) will be copious precip into California with large cut off lows.  Typically that is not a real wet or snowy pattern up here...particularly in March.   Although there are more possibilities with that pattern of course.  

[Chewbacca Defense]

It switched back to rain last night before I went to bed, looks like it snowed around 4-5am at my house, but never went below freezing, so we've ended up with about .5" of sloppy slush on the cars and lawns.  Driving in to work though I did see a few cars with 1-1.5" on them.  We just didn't get enough moisture to work with.

[Timmy]

Still snowing at 31 here. About 2” which is as much as I got here Christmas Eve.

[Geos]

So close to getting snow last night. Maybe it did fall as a mix, but I was asleep by the time it got down to 35. 

[MossMan]

Had around 2” at 3am when I checked, road and trees covered as well, now mostly off the trees and down to about an inch...I wasn’t expecting anything but 35 degree lumpy rain like we have had the last 6yrs in marginal situations so this was awesome!!

[MossMan]

Glad I mowed yesterday!

[Geos]

Had around 2” at 3am when I checked, road and trees covered as well, now mostly off the trees and down to about an inch...I wasn’t expecting anything but 35 degree lumpy rain like we have had the last 6yrs in marginal situations so this was awesome!!

 

Cool. Urban heat island or something must have kept it just a tad too warm here last night. 

[Geos]

Going up to Snoqualmie looks pretty snowy this morning.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended up with 2.6”. Nice little event.

[TT-SEA]

Heavy drizzle and 36 here with melting slush on the ground... and yet the birds are still singing out there.  

[TT-SEA]

Nothing but cold, occasionally chunky 35 degree rain here all night.

 

If there wasn't the possibilities coming up, I'd be pretty annoyed right now but I'm all good.

 

Monday and Tuesday will be a snow-covered winter wonderland with sunshine and cold temps... all but guaranteed.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy drizzle and 36 here with melting slush on the ground... and yet the birds are still singing out there.

33 and cloudy now here. Seems like it stuck down to about 500’ or so east of I 5 in NW Oregon. During the peak of it, 2:30-4:30am it fell at almost an inch an hour rate.

[TT-SEA]

I am hoping that my area is buried in snow on Sunday... that would likely mean all of the Seattle area gets snow and it will be much better for the plants.   Deep snow is a great insulator against damage from the cold.  

[MossMan]

Heavy drizzle and 36 here with melting slush on the ground... and yet the birds are still singing out there.

I have you beat, 33.8 and raining now!

[MossMan]

Hold the phone! Turning back to snow!

[Perturbed Member]

Got all snow in the air but never could get it to stick here, that light southerly breeze kept me at 34-35F.  I'll gladly take what I can get. 

[TT-SEA]

Hold the phone! Turning back to snow!

 

Some sort of c-zone up there.   I see in the models that the wind shifts to northerly across the entire area this afternoon.   Maybe that c-zone is the leading edge of the northerly flow?

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS looks great for Sunday... clearly an arctic boundary coming south with widespread snow ahead of it. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is OK.

 

The ICON is off the charts awesome! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z GFS looks great for Sunday... clearly an arctic boundary coming south with widespread snow ahead of it. 

 

 

Looks like maybe some decent snow here Sunday. I doubt we get above freezing Monday up here. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like maybe some decent snow here Sunday. I doubt we get above freezing Monday up here. 

 

I think it will be below freezing there on Monday and Tuesday.    Same thing at my house... and probably for most of the Seattle area.   The other nice thing is that dewpoints will be very low.    Those days are going to be visually spectacular.  

[Perturbed Member]

Nearly every run on all models shows a pretty clear shadow for the Willamette valley as the front moves down. Showery precip getting murdered by the coast range. Very little precip actually makes it to the lowest elevations. Last night's 00z ECMWF at least showed  some mercy with widespread 2-3 inches in PDX this weekend but the GFS and ICON have been consistent with a pretty nasty shadow. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a backdoor push the middle of next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nearly every run on all models shows a pretty clear shadow for the Willamette valley as the front moves down. Showery precip getting murdered by the coast range. Very little precip actually makes it to the lowest elevations. Last night's 00z ECMWF at least showed  some mercy with widespread 2-3 inches in PDX this weekend but the GFS and ICON have been consistent with a pretty nasty shadow. 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah east valley/metro will be favored.

[Esquimalt]

The GEM has started as well.  Looks chilly for the next week, but not much in the way of snow with Sunday's arctic front.    Snow map at hour 240 sure is eye candy though