snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Amazing that so many media outlets locally along with NWS calling for virtually nothing for the DT KSEA metro area and extreme eastern Kitsap peninsula but when you take into acct NW flow, it's not surprising. I'm not at all confident that area won't get snow. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 NAM 12km 00z has a pretty large snow hole over the Pugent Sound lowlands. Doesn't matter IMHO. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Where is Steve Pool when we need him? Forecasting the BBQ Sandwich??D**n Skippy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Amazing that so many media outlets locally along with NWS calling for virtually nothing for the DT KSEA metro area and extreme eastern Kitsap peninsula but when you take into acct NW flow, it's not surprising.Yeah I will laugh my a** off if a hard polar maritime/ continental polar boundary sets up over the Spacee Needle and lets em have it to the tune of 7 inches!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I'm not at all confident that area won't get snow.Here's hoping, it was last February when we got 9.5" here and many locations around us got much less than that, perhaps on the order of 2-3" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 NAM 12km 00z has a pretty large snow hole over the Pugent Sound lowlands. These computer models could be playinng us for fools ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 These computer models could be playinng us for fools ??? The NAM is terrible. I never use it anymore. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 NAM 12km 00z has a pretty large snow hole over the Pugent Sound lowlands.I get the distinct vibe that you don’t want it to snow in Seattle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 The latest GFS shows two more significant cold shots...one around day 5 ad the other around day 11. 850s drop to -9 on both. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I get the distinct vibe that you don’t want it to snow in Seattle. You have to wonder. The NAM isn't even worth mentioning IMO. It's never right. Even when it is you have no idea that will be the time it's right. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I get the distinct vibe that you don’t want it to snow in Seattle.Not true. I like to look at all the data present. It wouldn’t surprise me if Seattle got nothing tomorrow or if a convergence band setup that delivered an inch or two. I’m siding with little to no accumulation unless the 00z models change their tune. I think the mid-week system is much more interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 NAM 12km 00z has a pretty large snow hole over the Pugent Sound lowlands. You are quickly becoming the new Tim of this forum. Can you tell us when it's going to be 52 and raining again? For days and days you been throwing cold water on the party. At this point, let's just see what happens. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 While I don't think we should believe any one model run when it comes to snow amounts for tomorrow, the NAM is not nearly as bad as what you make it seem. Maybe not, but we have a number of models that are better. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 You are quickly becoming the new Tim of this forum. Can you tell us when it's going to be 52 and raining again? For days and days you been throwing cold water on the party. At this point, let's just see what happens. He has a meteorology degree. I think his opinion is probably valid--even if not everyone agrees with him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Had a high of 50f with the strong southerlies earlier today at 1pm Down to 45f now. Surprised that NWS is thinking enough cold air comes in tonight already for a little hit and miss snow in the am. I was thinking it wouldn't be until later tomorrow for the main push of cold air. The thinking seems to be a little shortwave is bringing down some of the cooler air overnight, then the main push of cold air. Honestly didn't see it being cold enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Down to 40 up here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 NAM if anyone’s interested Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 He has a meteorology degree. I think his opinion is probably valid--even if not everyone agrees with him. Absolutely, and his opinion has been consistent, as noted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Front Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 NAM if anyone’s interested 8822C94F-94B7-445E-A337-5002F30EB12B.pngYuck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I did post earlier about the favorable dynamics on the WRF with the PGCZ. Maybe that got missed lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Of course, we’ve hit the last minute dry trend. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 NAM if anyone’s interestedHaha, now I'm in a no snow area where on the Euro I'm in an area of enhanced snow. I'll be surprised either way I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Front Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 On to the next event folks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 NAM if anyone’s interested 8822C94F-94B7-445E-A337-5002F30EB12B.pngLooking better down here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 NAM if anyone’s interested 8822C94F-94B7-445E-A337-5002F30EB12B.pngThat shows nothing for moss man. Doubt that’s correct Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Of course, we’ve hit the last minute dry trend. We'll do fine. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Already down to 40 here. Things are advancing nicely. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Down to 44 here maybe my forecast temp for Sunday might actually be right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 I wouldn't worry about the NAM very much. The HRRR, which runs every hour has been looking consistently good (except for a snow hole in what appears to be central king county). The RGEM was pretty good. It could be worse: we could be sitting there in 39 degree drizzle. Right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Some sort of convergence zone has formed over Victoria. Hopefully it keeps up until later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 NAM if anyone’s interested8822C94F-94B7-445E-A337-5002F30EB12B.png Every model has shown snow here....even this one. I'm feeling pretty good. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Does anyone here use the site timeanddate for weather? I'm not sure how accurate it is... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Anyone pulling an all nighter to track this stuff? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Anyone pulling an all nighter to track this stuff? I'll be watching until 1 at least. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Does anyone here use the site timeanddate for weather? I'm not sure how accurate it is... I never trust those kinds of sites. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 00z NAM looks tremendous! It trended towards the EURO and gives PDX Metro a snowstorm starting Tuesday night! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 No doubt the mid week thing has potential. Now that models have trended so cold with that the stakes are high! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 That shows nothing for moss man. Doubt that’s correct Yeah I'd say toss the NAM at this point. Doesn't seem realistic. Someone will get largely left out, but Mossman is probably the least likely too. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 No doubt the mid week thing has potential. Now that models have trended so cold with that the stakes are high!You were spot on when you said late February Arctic Blast are rarely dry! Looks like there's going to be numerous chances of snow this coming week for everybody! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 18, 2018 Report Share Posted February 18, 2018 Yeah I'd say toss the NAM at this point. Doesn't seem realistic. Someone will get largely left out, but Mossman is probably the least likely too. I seriously wonder if the models will ever be good enough to accurately depict situations like this. I think the Olympics make it nearly impossible. A trajectory difference of just a couple of degrees can make the difference between no snow and several inches. Insanely difficult here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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