March 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

Today's good rainfall (expected 0.50-1.00") totally crapped out.  The blob of heavy rain and storms down in Missouri earlier today likely had something to do with it.  I've only received 0.08" and it's mostly done.

 

Today just kinda stuck in general.  In addition to not getting the good rain/thundershowers, it was cloudy and colder than yesterday, so not much snow melted.

[Tom]

It's a wet, dreary, cloudy, albeit warm morning out there with a temp of 50F.  I haven't heard the birds chirp so much all season as I'm sure they are enjoying these warmer temps.  Feels very spring like with the moisture in the air.  ORD has picked up about .35" or rain overnight.

[jaster220]

It's a wet, dreary, cloudy, albeit warm morning out there with a temp of 50F.  I haven't heard the birds chirp so much all season as I'm sure they are enjoying these warmer temps.  Feels very spring like with the moisture in the air.  ORD has picked up about .35" or rain overnight.

 

Dittos here at St Joe's lakeshore - it was a bird symphony as I headed into the office. 

 

@ Mich Peeps

 

According to the news this morning, on this date back in '91 there was quite the Tor outbreak across SMI? That was my first spring in NMI and it was a really mild one with real warmth in April even up there. News report mentioned 15 twisters, 40 injured, and millions in damage. Odd that I don't remember that at least making news when it happened. Anyone on here remember this event? I'm sure it's prolly part of a Wiki page but would prefer personal MI peep memories over "just the facts"  

[BrianJK]

It's a wet, dreary, cloudy, albeit warm morning out there with a temp of 50F. I haven't heard the birds chirp so much all season as I'm sure they are enjoying these warmer temps. Feels very spring like with the moisture in the air. ORD has picked up about .35" or rain overnight.

Ran out yesterday evening after that first shower pushed through the area and there was that very pronounced Spring smell in the air.

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

 

Given dependency of this pattern evolution on high latitude wave
breaking/blocking processes, the next few days will likely continue
to feature above normal uncertainty in the evolution of the local
thermal profile heading into late this week and early next week.
Embedded shortwaves will then bring regular chances of ra/sn mix or
sn to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region for the foreseeable future.

 

[Niko]

Currently light rain and temps near 41F.

[NEJeremy]

Had another .37" of rain yesterday, much less than expected as it was supposed to rain all day, but it only rained in the morning. Now over 3" of rain the last 10 days.

[Minny_Weather]

Sun's coming out today. Yuck. Perfect day to sit inside the DMV all day. Thankfully that's what I'm doing today! Still mostly cloudy atm. 39.7*F.

[westMJim]

Dittos here at St Joe's lakeshore - it was a bird symphony as I headed into the office. 

 

@ Mich Peeps

 

According to the news this morning, on this date back in '91 there was quite the Tor outbreak across SMI? That was my first spring in NMI and it was a really mild one with real warmth in April even up there. News report mentioned 15 twisters, 40 injured, and millions in damage. Odd that I don't remember that at least making news when it happened. Anyone on here remember this event? I'm sure it's prolly part of a Wiki page but would prefer personal MI peep memories over "just the facts"  

I do not remember the March 27^th 1991 tornado outbreak (I had to look it up) but it looks like most of the tornadoes were on the east side of the state. Of the 15 there were 4 F3’s one NW of Battle Creek and one in Coldwater, 2 near or just north of West Branch running toward Oscoda (there was also a F 2 near I 75 south west of West Branch. Two more F2’s one south west of Houghton Lake and one between Jackson and Lansing near US 127. There were 3 F1’s two of which were in the Big Rapids area and one west of Port Huron. And 4 more F0’s While I do not remember that outbreak I do remember  derecho on Sunday July 7^th that came thru Grand Rapids with 85 MPH winds there were many trees down and I had no power here at my house for several days.

[jaster220]

Fog and 51F...just like spring! (in Mackinaw)    Stuck in the 40's back home. Again. A lot more talk of spring, than actual spring. March 2012, where are you??

[Niko]

@ Mich Peeps

 

According to the news this morning, on this date back in '91 there was quite the Tor outbreak across SMI? That was my first spring in NMI and it was a really mild one with real warmth in April even up there. News report mentioned 15 twisters, 40 injured, and millions in damage. Odd that I don't remember that at least making news when it happened. Anyone on here remember this event? I'm sure it's prolly part of a Wiki page but would prefer personal MI peep memories over "just the facts" 

 

...........At that time, I was in NYC, so I would have no clue about this.

[jaster220]

I do not remember the March 27^th 1991 tornado outbreak (I had to look it up) but it looks like most of the tornadoes were on the east side of the state. Of the 15 there were 4 F3’s one NW of Battle Creek and one in Coldwater, 2 near or just north of West Branch running toward Oscoda (there was also a F 2 near I 75 south west of West Branch. Two more F2’s one south west of Houghton Lake and one between Jackson and Lansing near US 127. There were 3 F1’s two of which were in the Big Rapids area and one west of Port Huron. And 4 more F0’s While I do not remember that outbreak I do remember  derecho on Sunday July 7^th that came thru Grand Rapids with 85 MPH winds there were many trees down and I had no power here at my house for several days.

 

Nice summary WMJim   Looks like that may have been the last time serious twisters roamed the immediate Marshall surroundings, and in just about every direction too! October of 2001 an F2 or F3 crossed I-94 near the main Galesburg exit 85 heading NE into the western side of the Fort Custer property on the west side of BC. That was mostly a tree breaker tho, not aware of much structural impacts let-alone injuries. I moved to Marshall in May of '02 and we've not had an actual Tor in BC/Marshall since, tho the big blow-down in May of 2011 may have been a potent funnel that never quite touched down.  

[Tom]

As expected, the 12z GFS is back to reality and agreeing with it's own ensembles which have been steadfast on the cold coming this weekend along with chances for snow.  We are inside 4 days now and the model is painting a stripe of snow along and north of I-80 Fri night into Sat.

[Niko]

Currently some light rain and temps in the low 40s. Rain will end by afternoon.

[james1976]

Back home for a couple days! I figure if its gonna be cold we might as well have snow!

I was out of state for this recent storm but i believe i picked up atleast 11" and possibly more. That puts me at a solid 42" on the season and that might even be a little low.

[jaster220]

As expected, the 12z GFS is back to reality and agreeing with it's own ensembles which have been steadfast on the cold coming this weekend along with chances for snow.  We are inside 4 days now and the model is painting a stripe of snow along and north of I-80 Fri night into Sat.

 

Double Digit bulls-eye speck over mby. The last DD hit was Feb 24-25 of '16..considering all the factors that point against this (cue Money Man's list) I shall remain nonchalant for the time being..

[BrianJK]

Back home for a couple days! I figure if its gonna be cold we might as well have snow!

I was out of state for this recent storm but i believe i picked up atleast 11" and possibly more. That puts me at a solid 42" on the season and that might even be a little low.

 

How did your area look upon returning?  Still have that wintry look/feel to it?

[Tom]

This news is just fantastic and well advertised via the CFSv2 weeks ago and fulfilled a call I made of bringing their seasonal snowfalls near normal:

 

 

 

Squaw Alpine‏ @squawalpine

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Thanks to this incredible #MiracleMarch that brought over 18 FEET of snow, we'll be skiing & riding thru Memorial Day - May 28, 2018! Cheers to 2 more months of Spring skiing! (weather & conditions permitting) #springskiingcapital #mysquawalpine

 

 

They average 450" of snow per season and they more than doubled their snowfall amount from Feb 27th (161") to 388" on March 25th...

 

http://squawalpine.com/skiing-riding/weather-conditions-webcams/squaw-valley-snowfall-tracker

[Minny_Weather]

Short term AFD from GRR yesterday afternoon. Saw something on Twitter that made me look it up. This was a good read.

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 321 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018

A steady rain will arrive toward midnight and linger into Tuesday
morning. Its still looking like we will have a half an inch to an
inch over the region.

Rain was progressing NE over West Central IL as of 19Z and will
reach the GRR CWA toward midnight. Solid low level jet support
arrives in this time frame and crosses Southern Lower through the
wee hours of the morning when the steadiest, and occasionally heavy,
rains occur.

The front comes through around mid day from west to east on Tuesday.
The morning will be wet, but then the rains end from northwest to
southeast through the afternoon and into the Tuesday night. The
front slows it's pace into Tuesday night as a wave of low pressure
passes to our south. The trend with this low has been farther
south. So expecting all but the far SE CWA will be drying out into
Tuesday evening. Trended POPs down for much of the area Tuesday
night.

Another front moves across the area late Wednesday night, but this
appears to be moisture starved. This should only produce mid clouds.


And so this brings a sunset to my nearly 31-year NWS career. I've
had many rewarding experiences, keeping all abreast of what to
expect weather-wise. Even though I wasn't always correct, I can
honestly say I always did what I thought was right and gave it my
best effort. I am most warmed by a comment a 20 year-old recently
said to me, that he was shocked whenever the forecast wasn't right.
That statement proves we have come a long way in the past 30+ years,
and I'm proud to have been a part of that.

Next time you see a Meteorologist, thank them for they have worked
24/7/365 for the good of keeping everyone safe. Whether on a plane,
in a car, on a boat; sleeping through the night, or busy at your
workplace; the NWS was, and still will be, there for you.

I appreciate the good men and women I've worked alongside. The GRR
forecasters are especially talented and deliver hard-earned products
for you multiple times, every day and every night.

Thank you for the honor of serving you.

[jaster220]

Short term AFD from GRR yesterday afternoon. Saw something on Twitter that made me look it up. This was a good read.

 

I heard there was a retirement there, but not about this AFD. Glad you posted it. 

[jaster220]

A little bit stale dated, but really illustrates just how low sunspots have dropped after last October's spike..

 

[gosaints]

doesnt it take like years and years for sun spots activity to impact viable weather and even then the influence is unknown??

[Tom]

doesnt it take like years and years for sun spots activity to impact viable weather and even then the influence is unknown??

Yes, it takes years to cool the planet as long as Sun spots continue to stay low. During Low Solar years, there isn’t much of a lag period in terms of high Lat blocking like we are seeing this season.

[james1976]

How did your area look upon returning?  Still have that wintry look/feel to it?

Yeah prolly good 6" OTG yet. Its taken a beating though with the late March sun. Air temps are struggling though.

[Money]

Gfs looks good for this weekend from minny into WI

 

Temps in the mid 20’s (24-28 range)

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018032800&fh=96&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

Probably looking at a 2-4 range

[OKwx2k4]

@ Okwx, shades of last year??? Wet times ahead...

 

Yessir. My drought is over for sure now.

[OKwx2k4]

Short term AFD from GRR yesterday afternoon. Saw something on Twitter that made me look it up. This was a good read.

That's pretty wonderful. Worth sharing for sure. Thank you.

[Tom]

Keep an eye out and be vigilant my friends...

 

 

WHERE WILL CHINA'S SPACE STATION RE-ENTER? Eight tons of Chinese space hardware are about to disintegrate in a bright fireball. The European Space Agency (ESA) says the Tiangong-1 space station will re-enter Earth's atmosphere sometime between "the morning of 31 March and the early morning of 2 April (in UTC time)." The broad uncertainty in re-entry time makes it impossible to predict exactly where Tiangong-1 will re-enter. All we know is that it will disintegrate somewhere between +42.8 and -42.8 degrees latitude, the upper and lower limits of the station's tilted orbit:

http://spaceweather.com/images2018/26mar18/reentrymap_strip.jpg

Although most of Earth's population is contained within the possible re-entry zone, the odds strongly favor a descent over uninhabited land or ocean. According to the ESA, "[surviving fragments] will be scattered over a curved ellipsoid that is thousands of km in length and tens of km wide. The personal probability of being hit by a piece of debris from the Tiangong-1 is actually 10 million times smaller than the yearly chance of being hit by lightning."

 

Approximately one day before the reentry, it will become possible to roughly predict re-entry ground tracks, and hence which regions on Earth might witness the fireball. Stay tuned for updates.

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

The NAM, GFS, GEM and ICON all show a decent snow for parts of MN and WI on Saturday. Euro says meh, nothing to see here. The qpf looks pretty minimal but could see a few inches.

[westMJim]

So just where does Grand Rapids stand so far this month and year? For the month of March as of March 27^th the mean is 33.4° that is a departure of -1.5° so far this month the average high/low has been 42.5° 24.3° the 30 years vs the average of 43.7/26.4 there has been 4.9” of snow fall the average as of this date should be 7.9”

As for the year so far (since January 1^st) the average high/low is 37.0/21.3 the long term average is 35.9/21.3 so we have been warmer for highs this year but the low is right at average. Of course the year is above average at 29.2° vs the average of 28.6° (+0.6°) we have had 8.02” of precip vs the average of 5.98” and for snow fall we are now at 71.7” vs the average at this time of 72.7” (yes we are now below average for the seasonal snow fall total)

[OKwx2k4]

Keep an eye out and be vigilant my friends...

That's pretty cool! Thanks for sharing!

[Niko]

Clouds trying to break and allow for some sunshine to peek through. Temps are chilly and holding @ 38F.

[Minny_Weather]

Front has passed, lightly raining with big raindrops now. 51.8*F.

[Tom]

In other news, I'm a firm believer that we are in the midst of the disclosure era that has been kept under wraps for decades.  I'm rather surprised to see the FAA allowed the release of pilot communication regarding this UFO sighting in the SW.

 

https://www.abc15.com/news/national/ufo-sighting-reported-in-arizona-by-two-pilots

[FarmerRick]

In other news, I'm a firm believer that we are in the midst of the disclosure era that has been kept under wraps for decades.  I'm rather surprised to see the FAA allowed the release of pilot communication regarding this UFO sighting in the SW.

 

https://www.abc15.com/news/national/ufo-sighting-reported-in-arizona-by-two-pilots

 

 

http://tapnewswire.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/X-Files-The-Erlenmeyer-Flask-header-1.jpg

[Niko]

Cloudy and gloomy w temps @ 39F. At least will be milder today w temps approaching the upper 40s.

[westMJim]

This March should end up with temperatures and snow fall below average. The warmest this month looks to be a cool 56° less that 25% of the past March’s in Grand Rapids have not gotten to 60 or better. But also the coldest it has gotten is only 17° and that very uncommon to have the coldest low that mild the last time it happened was in 2012. Other years that it happened were is 2000, 1958, 1946, 1942, 1931, and 1910.

At this time the snow fall for March is 4.9" the average for March as of the 29th is 8.0" for the season Grand Rapids remains at 71.7"  The average Grand Rapids as of March 29 is 72.8"  So just over one inch below average as of this date.

[jaster220]

In other news, I'm a firm believer that we are in the midst of the disclosure era that has been kept under wraps for decades.  I'm rather surprised to see the FAA allowed the release of pilot communication regarding this UFO sighting in the SW.

 

https://www.abc15.com/news/national/ufo-sighting-reported-in-arizona-by-two-pilots

 

 As if our friendly skies aren't busy enough simply with human air traffic!?  You mean they let this get published without passing the whole thing off as just somebody's grandma test piloting her new mini-copter?? Remember the balloon saucer thing in CO some years back??  Personally, I'm much more concerned about just what those Nazi's have been up to under the ice?  Just ask Mr. Aldrin 'bout that..      

[jaster220]

This March should end up with temperatures and snow fall below average. The warmest this month looks to be a cool 56° less that 25% of the past March’s in Grand Rapids have not gotten to 60 or better. But also the coldest it has gotten is only 17° and that very uncommon to have the coldest low that mild the last time it happened was in 2012. Other years that it happened were is 2000, 1958, 1946, 1942, 1931, and 1910.

At this time the snow fall for March is 4.9" the average for March as of the 29th is 8.0" for the season Grand Rapids remains at 71.7"  The average Grand Rapids as of March 29 is 72.8"  So just over one inch below average as of this date.

 

In Marshall, I've had 4.7" this month, vs 4.6" last March. Strangeness abounds in so many parallels between this and last winter. 

[Tom]

Taking a look back at guidance in late Feb, the CFSv2 didn't do a bad job at all.  I expect to see temp anomalies a bit lower across the north but other than that, it didn't do a bad job.  A tongue of AN precip from the Dakotas into the SE was forecasted along with dryness across the GL's and also in the desert SW/C&S Plains.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201803.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201803.gif