June Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Good catch. Did notice when flipping between GFS and CMC on Tropical Tidbits that the start date was changing. The CMC always comes out a little faster than the GFS there but only on the CONUS view. The North American view takes forever to finish... but the CONUS view gives you a good preview. Not this morning though!

 

GEM results are pending still... maybe it will come out more troughy as well.

[TT-SEA]

The EPS told me that the troughier solutions probably weren’t going away, at least this morning.

 

No frame by frame comparisons?

 

Next Thursday from 00Z run:

 

 

 

And the new 12Z run...

 

[TT-SEA]

 

 

Honest mistake.   The GEM in the CONUS view always finishes first... did not even think to check date.

[Jesse]

Honest mistake. The GEM in the CONUS view always finishes first... did not even think to check date.

Ridgy runs can do things to the mind.

[Deweydog]

Honest mistake. The GEM in the CONUS view always finishes first... did not even think to check date.

YOU ARE A ******* IDIOT!!!

[TT-SEA]

We still have a really nice weekend on the 12Z GFS... that is good.  

 

Saturday is a little warmer than the 00Z run and Sunday is about the same (i.e. warm).  

[Jesse]

YOU ARE A f***** IDIOT!!!

Victim posture activate!

[TT-SEA]

YOU ARE A f***** IDIOT!!!

 

 

Guilty as charged!

[Front Ranger]

Warm season drought in the western lowlands intensifying as one of the driest late springs/early summers on record continues.

 

[Jesse]

12z GFS shows basically a perfect 4th of July.

[TT-SEA]

Warm season drought in the western lowlands intensifying as one of the driest late springs/early summers on record continues.

 

60dPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

Its going to be a wet August... take that to the bank!  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful, warm morning. Some cumulus beginning to build.

[Farmboy]

12z GFS shows basically a perfect 4th of July.

 

Miserable cold and wet? 

[FroYoBro]

76 seems pretty warm for 10am.

 

Yup, real warm start this morning. Already up in the lower 80's before 11 a.m. here. 

[BLI snowman]

Actually a chilly morning so far here. Weird.

[MossMan]

[ShawniganLake]

12z Gem ensemble

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warm season drought in the western lowlands intensifying as one of the driest late springs/early summers on record continues.

 

60dPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

Mark Nelsen called it unprecedented the other day!

[Jesse]

No drought up here! Grass is green, trees and weeds are fantastic and the moisture content in the soil is still quite good. Lake Goodwin still running very high for this time of the year as well.

 

Do you think those maps are inaccurate?

[TT-SEA]

Almost 80 here before 11 a.m. and the dewpoint is approaching 60.   And some decorative convective clouds forming.    Nice morning!

 

HRRR and WRF shows some big development over the Cascades from Mt. Rainier northward starting in a couple hours.

[Front Ranger]

Its going to be a wet August... take that to the bank!  

 

Tell that to 1952, 1958, 1967, 1970, 1982, 1986, and 2016.

[TT-SEA]

Do you think those maps are inaccurate?

 

He is not saying that its been wet recently or that those anomaly maps are wrong... he is saying that it was so wet before the dry period that its still green and lush.

 

Same is true here.   Our road side grass browns out quickly every summer and its still very green.   The rain last week was very helpful of course.   

[TT-SEA]

Tell that to 1952, 1958, 1967, 1970, 1982, 1986, and 2016.

 

 

How can reach them?   Do have their e-mail addresses?  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He is not saying that its been wet recently or that those anomaly maps are wrong... he is saying that it was so wet before the dry period that its still green and lush.

 

Same is true here.   Our road side grass browns out quickly every summer and its still very green.   The rain last week was very helpful of course.   

 

You would know what he is saying since you wrote it...

 

Very dry down here. Looks like late August.

[Phil]

Tell that to 1952, 1958, 1967, 1970, 1982, 1986, and 2016.

How many of those were -QBO/-AMO w/ a cool EPAC?

 

I think 1970 fits. Though that was a solar max year.

[James Jones]

Tell that to 1952, 1958, 1967, 1970, 1982, 1986, and 2016.

 

I like how Tim acts as if a "wet August" even means anything. A 1.6" mean for the EUG-BLI corridor would be statistically quite wet compared to average but would do little to alleviate the drought.

[Perturbed Member]

As of last night at least, Mark seemed unusually bullish for convection today. 

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/

 

"Speaking of thunder…the weather pattern tomorrow screams THUNDER ACTION to this weather geek.  We have a perfect setup for Cascade thunderstorms to spread down into portions of the western valleys of NW Oregon and SW Washington. "

[TT-SEA]

You would know what he is saying since you wrote it...

 

Very dry down here. Looks like late August.

 

Randy and I have basically the same conditions since are area to the north and east of Seattle has been the wettest area compared to normal in the PNW... by far.

 

Looks appropriately like June here (still quite green and lush)... this was yesterday evening.

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is even farther to the south and east with the convection tonight...

 

[Deweydog]

12z Gem ensemble

 

F38A6E67-5CD8-48BC-86D5-A6C26E60D713.png

Follows my cool down, warm up, cool down, warm up hypothesis to a T.

[Jesse]

He is not saying that its been wet recently or that those anomaly maps are wrong... he is saying that it was so wet before the dry period that its still green and lush.

 

Same is true here.   Our road side grass browns out quickly every summer and its still very green.   The rain last week was very helpful of course.   

 

Matt's got ur back.

[TT-SEA]

The area from Randy's house to my house and eastward into the Cascades is STILL very wet for the year... even after the dry weather recently.   

 

[Front Ranger]

How can reach them? Do have their e-mail addresses?

You'll need a Delorean.

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Looks like this morning’s low of 63 at PDX was a new record MAX-MIN for the date (previous was 62 in 1958).

 

Also their first 60+ low of the year.

[Deweydog]

Midnight lows!!!

[Jesse]

Midnight lows!!!

62 or lower by midnight (1am) would be a tall order.

 

Although I suppose with a marine push and possible convection anything is possible!

[Deweydog]

62 or lower by midnight (1am) would be a tall order.

 

Although I suppose with a marine push and possible convection anything is possible!

Dream big, little guy!

[Front Ranger]

How many of those were -QBO/-AMO w/ a cool EPAC?

 

I think 1970 fits. Though that was a solar max year.

How many -QBO/-AMO/cool EPAC/low solar/dry PNW spring years are there?

[Jesse]

Dream big, little guy!

You were the one who said it. Were you just trying to set me up for a patronizing comment?