March 2014 Observations and Discussions Part II

[Tom]

CPC agrees the below normal regime will continue thru the Spring...

[Tom]

Looking at the April forecast, it looks more ominous to me than what it may look like to the average "Joe" who saw this map.  The amount of real estate covered by below normal temps is way more than their March forecast which had the Midwest/Lakes region in below territory.

[The Snowman]

LOL

 

6+ through HR 216 but don't let your spring bias get in the way of reporting facts. 

 

Seriously, you are almost as bad as theweatherman in the past few months. 

Undeserved flak for one of the best posters on this forum.

 

cold for months yet...

 

 

 

what blocking.. there has been zero all winter

-EPO has been more than dominant all season, see attached image. Blocking is not solely limited to the NAO region.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/lqggHCuZCc.png

 

i have to agree with henry margusity that we might be looking at the last of winter as we head into april with the stratospheric polar vortex collapsing and with our final warming happening with the stratosphere.

Can probably expect a seasonal or cooler trend towards early/mid April before sustained warmth comes along, looking solely at the stratosphere.

[Geos]

Not again...

 

Well some of that won't be derived from old snow pack. At least in IL.

[james1976]

the forecast was for low 50s today but it only made it to the mid 40s.

[Tom]

I'd love to see if LES develops this weekend in SE WI/NE IL so late in the season.  GGEM/NAM/EURO all supporting some kind of lake effect development.  GGEM/NAM are the most robust but it wouldn't surprise me if it did evolve with the cold coming Sat night into Sunday and the recent warmth opening up the lake.

[Geos]

LOL

 

6+ through HR 216 but don't let your spring bias get in the way of reporting facts. 

 

Seriously, you are almost as bad as theweatherman in the past few months. 

 

I don't know what you're getting all excited about... most of the snow was located across the northwoods. Looks to cash in on most of the snow from here on out.

 

I don't generally report on precipitation beyond Day 5 if you haven't noticed.

[Tony]

I'd love to see if LES develops this weekend in SE WI/NE IL so late in the season.  GGEM/NAM/EURO all supporting some kind of lake effect development.  GGEM/NAM are the most robust but it wouldn't surprise me if it did evolve with the cold coming Sat night into Sunday and the recent warmth opening up the lake.

18Z NAM still showing this for about 6-9hrs and has it getting quite a bit inland as well. Will have to look at the hi-res once it gets into range.

[Geos]

EURO suggest Sunday and Monday are the coldest in the next 10 region wide. Lowest temp in my 7 day currently is 18°.

[Tom]

If that system next week is able to phase into a bigger system, expect a deeper trough to develop and we will have colder temps but that is just speculation this far out.

[Tom]

12z Euro ensembles showing what I mentioned today regarding the trough building back farther west as the SW Flow pattern develops late month into April.  Similar to what we saw in Feb.

[DominicR]

Maybe a early April fools winter storm in the making Tom.

[Tom]

ORD hit 80.0" with last nights 0.7"!   A little less than 10" to go for the record. 

 

 

Dominick, I think your right about a April fools snowfall sometime around there.  Lot's of winter still on the table.

[FiNsTa]

Keep dreaming on about a snowstorm. After this "Brutally cold air" in the mid 30s, it'll be right back up to near 50 by Thursday/Friday next week.

[Tom]

FiNsTa, have you been taking notes???  Class is still in session....

[DominicR]

FiNsTa, have you been taking notes???  Class is still in session....

 

It does look to warm up at least for a quick period as next system hits the PAC NW and flow goes zonal.

[Tom]

JMA has updated their March outlook and its painting a very cold start to Autumn next year leading to my idea had we have yet another fast start to winter coming next year.  I'm certainly going to enjoy this summer as much as possible and more than likely take a trip out to Europe for the summer where they will basking in warm weather.  Check out that warm water in the NE Pacific...could be another repeat of this year's cold/snow.

 

Edit: It's also showing a classic -NAO signature and more blocking near Greenland.

[Tom]

Not concerned Dominick, overall trend will be colder.  A day or two spike in temps doesn't justify what the overall trend will be.  Nobody has said it will be cold non-stop, there will be spikes up in temps but overall trend is cold.

[gosaints]

JMA nice model and you are talking about class being session . Lol. Enjoy your cold/cool dry week.....

[Tom]

GoSaints, try looking back and doing your research and see which global model has the best track record predicting seasonal outlooks.  Enough said.

[gosaints]

Tom look back you said this period right now through the end of next week would have multiple snow chances . ... where r they?

[gosaints]

If we get a real storm it will be way north and west. But we won't haven't had a real western through all year

[tim the weatherman]

just found out that parts of the midwest will experience moderate flooding this spring due the deep snowpack and lakes and rivers from this past wimter the areas is from detroit mich to chicago il to the quad cities il/ia to kansas city mo all the way to the madison to milwaukee wisc the blackhills of south dakota and from nw minnesota to eastren nd to northren nd.

[Tom]

You have eyes, look at the models...I don't need to tell ya.  At least for our area we have snow chances Mon/Tue and then a possible storm system in our region Thu/Fri.  In fact, 12z Euro paints snow over your area next week.  Look, if you want to criticize me on my predictions or thoughts, why don't you lay out some ideas instead of critiquing others???  It's much easier to tell someone they are wrong or wright about something after the fact, esp when you haven't given your 2 cents.  Its called Hindsight....look it up!

[Niko]

JMA has updated their March outlook and its painting a very cold start to Autumn next year leading to my idea had we have yet another fast start to winter coming next year.  I'm certainly going to enjoy this summer as much as possible and more than likely take a trip out to Europe for the summer where they will basking in warm weather.  Check out that warm water in the NE Pacific...could be another repeat of this year's cold/snow.

 

Edit: It's also showing a classic -NAO signature and more blocking near Greenland.

Actually Tom, my wife and I are thinking about going to Europe this summer also to see our family members there. Looking forward to some nice beaches on some of the islands that we go too.

[Geos]

Keep dreaming on about a snowstorm. After this "Brutally cold air" in the mid 30s, it'll be right back up to near 50 by Thursday/Friday next week.

 

I suspect those types of spells will become more and more common as we get into next month.

 

---

 

Top 2" about of soil here is de-thawed for the most part. 

 

Even if it does snow, it doesn't stick around too long this time of season.

 

Sunset tonight. Sun setting directly at the end of the W-E street I'm on.

 

[Geos]

Was watching the special segment on WGN about this winter and the outlook for summer. 8% of the seasonal snowfall falls beyond this point was one thing that was mentioned, but the other thing was that some long range forecasts are calling for a slightly warmer than normal summer. Somewhat cooler in the upper Midwest and western Ontario. 

 

Skilling siding with a cooler than normal 1-10 period, but about +4° for the 11-15 day.

[Money]

I suspect those types of spells will become more and more common as we get into next month.

 

---

 

Top 2" about of soil here is de-thawed for the most part. 

 

Even if it does snow, it doesn't stick around too long this time of season.

 

Sunset tonight. Sun setting directly at the end of the W-E street I'm on.

 

 

Bold call Geos considering in a month we would be in mid April and well into spring.

[gosaints]

You have eyes, look at the models...I don't need to tell ya. At least for our area we have snow chances Mon/Tue and then a possible storm system in our region Thu/Fri. In fact, 12z Euro paints snow over your area next week. Look, if you want to criticize me on my predictions or thoughts, why don't you lay out some ideas instead of critiquing others??? It's much easier to tell someone they are wrong or wright about something after the fact, esp when you haven't given your 2 cents. Its called Hindsight....look it up!

I have given my two cents. Will spend some time doing that .. ya I have eyes. Your Monday Tuesday system is all but washed up. Week nw flow event. Anything else is in LA LA land. So sorry for giving the opinion that snow chances look lame on a weather board. My thoughts are its gonna rain the end of next week. Could possibly thread the needle this far west but I doubt it. Beyond that who knows. Do know that gfs and ggem warm up quite a bit but that could be overdone much like the storm chances that far out. 0z euro actually torches in the long run which is hard to buy but could easily happen. I will no longer critique your calls for summer cancel and early start to next winter. The LRC will inevitably reset and be different.

[tbone8]

Got up to check the weather and almost an inch of snow has fallen...

[East Dubzz]

Today is going to be a fantastic one.

[Geos]

EURO continues with mild spell beyond Day 6.

Showing the late week system as a northwestern cutter.

 

This morning it is really foggy by the lake, but it should burn off by 10pm from what I'm hearing.

[gosaints]

 

MONDAY-THURSDAY...AND BEYOND...
MONDAY-TUESDAY BRINGS A LIGHT SNOW CHANCE TO THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR TUE-WED. BUT THEN...HOLD YOUR EASTER
BONNET...IT LOOKS WARMER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
WITH AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO AND CYCLONE BRINGING A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS CYCLONE FOR LATE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MUCH WARMER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY 60S.

[FiNsTa]

So tom, how's that record breaking cold shot looking like for the end of the month?

[gosaints]

So tom, how's that record breaking cold shot looking like for the end of the month?

Nothing set in stone yet.  Warm up is still out in La La land.  having the EURO on board is nice though.  GEFS also gives support

[FiNsTa]

Euro showing well above normal temps for the end of March LOL

[FV-Mike]

I have a forecast of 31- Sun, 34- Mon, 34-Tues, 38-Wed. may not be record breaking but it is well below average for this time 

[Tom]

FiNsTa, have you paid attention to the LOT discussions???  Izzy has been talking about how temps may be setting records early next week.  Yes, that is the end of the month and the last week of the month. 

[Geos]

I'm waiting a few more days before I get too excited about a late week warm up.

[Tom]

Good call Geo's, 12z GFS shows us what can happen as the PV dips down into S Canada the last days of March.  With the AO forecasted to be near neutral end of the month it would support a colder idea and less of a zonal flow.  Let's see what the 12z GGEM/EURO have to show.