Niko Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Current temp at 41F w sunshine breaking through. Its going to be a great day for any outdoor yard activity, that's for sure, even decor the lights. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 12z GFS with a nice storm over the plains post Christmas. Hopefully start of a great pattern 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 i don't care if this is 300+ hours out. It's the first time in what feels like 2 weeks that a model has shown any snow at all around these parts. So here's the 12z GFS. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 i don't care if this is 300+ hours out. It's the first time in what feels like 2 weeks that a model has shown any snow at all around these parts. So here's the 12z GFS. GFSMW_prec_kuchsnow_384.pngI'll take 500+ hrs out at this point. I'd rather see this than models showing nothing. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 12Z FV3-GFS with several storms towards the end of the run. Long way out for confidence or specifics, just hoping it is a pattern change to real winter. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Wind picked up this afternoon 25-30 mph. Temps dropped some- 40*. Overcast. It's like March with an attitude! 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 GRR mentions SSW in their AFD update this afternoon. Mentions favorable pattern for at least the Mitten by the end of next week. Until then our warmest stretch in December in a few years 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Dean Wysocki already mentioning it being colder after Christmas. He's never been wrong. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 CPC is going super warm through mid January Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 IL/WI get a nice snow on the 21st on the 18z GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Models are all crazy right now during Christmas week! As Tom said, models are trying figure out the pattern change. I think its comin.....just a matter of when. I do think we go into winter mode in a couple weeks. As a whole, models are starting to see it....just not all agreeing on exactly when yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 The EPS and GEFS/GEPS are on opposite sides of what the EPO will do Christmas week. EPS has trended towards a +EPO while GEFS maintain a -EPO along with the GEPS. As a result, the EPS blow torches the eastern CONUS and keeps the west cold. I really find that hard to believe but if its right, then the beat goes on. Been mentioned elsewhere that the Euro's strong suit isn't reading the NPAC. It has struggled often in reading it correctly. Let's hope that's the case this time as well.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 44F here today before the front came thru and all the fog set up shop. DFA til 11am Saturday morning here. Might be another beautiful Saturday tho if the skies clear out as expected. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Beautiful evening outside w temps in the 40s. Skies are mostly cloudy, but very comfortable being outside. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Dense fog in Chicagoland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 44F here today before the front came thru and all the fog set up shop. DFA til 11am Saturday morning here. Might be another beautiful Saturday tho if the skies clear out as expected. Uggh. Knew that 2 sunny Sat's in December was almost impossible to pull off Have also begun to trend the sky fcst for Saturday morepessimistic. Stratus should be hard to dislodge withstrengthening low level east-northeast flow due to sfc low movingtoward the Ohio Valley. Climatology supports this idea as well. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Foggy, light drizzle and mild w temps in the upper 30s. Dense fog advisory for my area. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 All right gfs, don't start this crap again.... In honesty, this has merit. Patience is a virtue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 I agree with Tom 100 percent. I'm not truly complaining because I know this is a break. Also agree with Tom about watching fof the "Niña" flair in the pattern. Hate losing mid-December but it will be worth it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Every since my post early in the morning yesterday, the models have now begun to trend much more progressive with the trough tracking across the deep south across parts of S TX. Instead of cutting off this energy into N Mexico, notice now how this trough, along with the northern piece are now trying to phase into a large scale system across portions of our eastern sub forum. I've been monitoring this like a hawk and I"m encouraged to see these latest developments as it is also confirming the LRC length that I've been using. In essence, I like what I'm seeing and the pattern going forward into Christmas week. Check out this animation of the last 8 runs starting with last nights 00z GFS....isn't this incredible how systems just want to intensify right where the LRC's Long Term Long Wave trough has set up shop?? I'm also noticing wintry trends among the ensembles across the GL's/OV with this system next weekend during the Winter Solstice. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Cloudy and seasonably chilly, along w light sprinkles and temps are hovering in the low 30s. Kinda has a glaze look to it on the ground as temps dipped into the upper 20s last night. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 There was heavy frost once again on the way to the gym early this morning. Looking forward to this warm weekend in the mid/upper 40’s to finally be able to clean up the front/back yard. Even though there isn’t any snow OTG now, gotta take what Mother Nature gives you and make the best of it. Happy Saturday! On a side note, I think this weekend we will finally see the models paint a better picture of what is to be expected later next weekend into th Christmas holiday. I’m looking for the models to see a blossoming Husdson Bay Ridge and storms running underneath this ridge right across our sub. Not brutal cold, but cold enough to support snow. I think the brutal stuff will come around NYE and during the 1st week of Jan. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Models seem too warm to support snow before Xmas for most of us. Might have to wait until the following week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Models seem too warm to support snow before Xmas for most of us. Might have to wait until the following week. If you're talking LES outbreak, prolly true. A rain to snow event similar to last month seems to be a legit possibility with next Friday's system tho. How did your place make out with that one? Iirc, most was southeast of you. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Watching next Friday's system closely over here for two reasons, one is my daughter has a Saturday morning flight out of O'hare and we plan to drive into the area Friday evening and spend the night. As Tom showed, h5 has really changed it's tune in the past 48 hrs aligning a possible classic phased wave/trough axis. Right now, all models look warmish to start so again a good chunk of qpf might go down the storm drains. 6z GFS only had a 2-4" gift for SMI and it was iirc, the best of the suite. Nonetheless, it does deliver a 1-2-3 punch before Christmas day to really whiten up The Mitt for the holidays and that would be such a nice present under my winter wx tree! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 12z GFS looking much colder starting the 20th. That system is looking better for GL's region. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Down to 1-2” of snow depth. The rest of it should melt today under the blazing December sun and 43F. Gonna fire up the grill this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 12z GFS looking much colder starting the 20th. That system is looking better for GL's region. My current Friday zone forecast. Putting it here for a record and to see how this trends during the next 4 days. Attm, GRR's morning AFD is saying "nothing to see here, move along" FridayRain and snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 DANG! @ 12z GFS, going bonkers with the phasing just still too warm. Can this change? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 If you're talking LES outbreak, prolly true. A rain to snow event similar to last month seems to be a legit possibility with next Friday's system tho. How did your place make out with that one? Iirc, most was southeast of you. We got some decent snow in Nov. I got about 2.5 from that system. Sitting at 9.5" for the year. Very little LES. Mostly heavy wet snow that melted quickly due to the warming near the lake still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Man the models are all over place. They really are not sure what to do around Christmas and the week after. Each run is different Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Man the models are all over place. They really are not sure what to do around Christmas and the week after. Each run is different Isn't that normal for d10+ tho? I can't remember model-land consistency at that range, tbh 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buzzman289 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 1703CA57-D6EE-4B0B-A35F-06FB42A06FF3.pngCedar Rapids snow hole lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Fv3 says Merry Christmas (Tom's storm for Christmas finally be showing up) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Nice clipper on Saturday too before the Christmas Miracle storm on the FV3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 A Christmas storm would be epic. Been a while! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 Would have more confidence if Euro was on board with a Christmas storm. It has not shown anything. Let’s see if that changes with the 12z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 It seems like models in general are starting to latch onto the pattern change 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 15, 2018 Report Share Posted December 15, 2018 12z FV3 GFS going crazy with storms Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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