Minny_Weather Posted December 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 I am about to be very happy or very pissed that I will not be in Lincoln for this system. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 From the DVN discussion... T'was the week before Christmas and all through the extended not amodel was stirring, not even the MOS. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 FV3 GFS now showing a wave coming through on Sunday. Hard to keep track of all the moving parts and models. Good news, we are home for Christmas break and can enjoy the weather. Traveling might get nasty next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 FV3 GFS now showing a wave coming through on Sunday. Hard to keep track of all the moving parts and models. Good news, we are home for Christmas break and can enjoy the weather. Traveling might get nasty next week.Exactly why I'm watching like a hawk. Wife is upset because the plans might change but I don't want any part of being on the roads if the rain snow line shifts or changes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 Cedar Rapids hit 50 again today, the fourth time in the last week. It has certainly been boring, but if it's not going to snow it may as well be this nice. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 Overcast all day, in the 50's, heavy fog till afternoon, then lighter, misting all day. This is exactly the weather we had in 2009 when we had so much snow in Jan. And Feb. Will see what the snow gods have in mind. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 Exactly why I'm watching like a hawk. Wife is upset because the plans might change but I don't want any part of being on the roads if the rain snow line shifts or changes.Correct. We have relatives coming here but they will leave Sunday. Huge travel after Christmas could be affected. Let’s see what happens but I am like you, I hate to travel on busy roads when weather could be an issue. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 18z GFS and FV3 has the Christmas Day snow up this way. Euro is way south. So many things happening all of the sudden. Went from no tracking to tracking overload. No complaints. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 18z GFS and FV3 has the Christmas Day snow up this way. Euro is way south. So many things happening all of the sudden. Went from no tracking to tracking overload. No complaints.You’re right. It won’t be boring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 Correct. We have relatives coming here but they will leave Sunday. Huge travel after Christmas could be affected. Let’s see what happens but I am like you, I hate to travel on busy roads when weather could be an issue.Yup plus I have done enough Christmas drives across Iowa during winter events to know I want no part of it if I can avoid it. Sadly cutting the trip down to the 26th just to beat it. Now if the euro and nam keep this storm rain I'll stick to our original plans but the fv3 has been very consistent on this. Enough to keep my attention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 19, 2018 Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 And with that wow the fv3 is going nuts with this storm. That's alot of snow and moisture in general. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 I really hope this can come down as snow around the IL WI border. A lot of the resorts here could really use a good holiday. Two years ago they weren't even really open, and last year was pretty bad too. This is their prime time, rain now would really hurt them. Even if they have snow on the hills and are open, no one comes out if it's rained. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 I'll just leave this right here... Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Mkx says nothing to see here...34 in partly cloudy till next Thurs and beyond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Exactly why I'm watching like a hawk. Wife is upset because the plans might change but I don't want any part of being on the roads if the rain snow line shifts or changes. Must. keep. wife. happy..especially at Christmas I'm kinda opposite. I'll camouflage chasing a weekend snowstorm hitting NMI as "a get-away weekend". But when we can't see the road due to whiteouts, I will be told to "get away from me!". Sometimes been worth it, sometimes nasso much. One must choose wisely Grasshopper.. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 GFS seems more east with the low in California. This could be good, who knows. Time will tell. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 GFS seems more east with the low in California. This could be good, who knows. Time will tell.I haven’t looked so I’m not sure if it’s faster overall, but the GFS tends to be, especially in stronger surface lows. Just something to watch. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Lol, just when you think it could be better, its even worse. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 That stout high pressure in Southern Canada is gone on the 0z GFS. Probably be a rainy letdown for most on this run. Edit: or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Lots of Christmas rain for many Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Lots of Christmas rain for manyIt's past christmas so that doesn't matter. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Sorry Minnesota! You've been Nebraska'd Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 #MinnesotaLowMagnet Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Still looks like it's going to come down to themals. But poo poo on that run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Fv3 similar to regular GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 GEFS moved south with the snow band on average. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 The EURO took out that system completely for Christmas day AND made a HUGE jump north for Thursdays system as well. Even most of our Minnesota posters miss out and get rain lol. D**n. Its like the grinch stole christmas! 2 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 It's about time the Dakotas/MN get hit. They are way past due. If they had a decent snow pack now, this would likely track further S and E. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Looks like a MN special! let them get it and in a few weeks will get ours! Maybe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 The EURO took out that system completely for Christmas day AND made a HUGE jump north for Thursdays system as well. Even most of our Minnesota posters miss out and get rain lol. d**n. Its like the grinch stole christmas!I think you need to look again. Here’s MN. That’s not rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Yep--. Even the Kuchera amounts for the Twin Cities are in the 4-8"+ range. The snow shield on this appears to much closer to the "L" that what is typical-- How close will likely be determined in part by if the system is occluding or strengthening. Soo much time to go that if you look at every model run 4 times a day your going to go nuts a week out. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 I think you need to look again. Here’s MN. That’s not rain.Build that glacier up north buddy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 After a cold and some what snowy November much of the southern great lakes area is in a major snow fall drought for December. It is now December 20th and here are some TOTAL snow fall totals from around MichiganGrand Rapids 1.9”….Muskegon 1.8”….Lansing 0.3”….Detroit 0.1”….Flint 1.0”….Saginaw 0.2”….Alpena 2.5”….Sault Ste Marie 10.5”….Marquette 21.0In states to the near west and south it in not any better. Milwaukee 0.2….Madison WI 1.0”….Chicago 0.3”….Rockford IL 0.5” Fort Wayne 0.1”….South Bend 0.7”….Toledo 0.1” Here at Grand Rapids we are still on track for a top ten least snowy Decembers on record.At this time it looks to be an area wide green/brown Christmas there is a slight chance of snow lake snows here in Michigan late Sunday into Monday but don’t look for much if any.°At this time it is cloudy and a mild 41.5° here at my house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 NWS Hastings disco this morning is basically saying it will be all rain, no cold air for the system, and don't believe what you are hearing or seeing about a big storm. Very condescending. They seem to not want you to look at social media for ideas about storminess for next week. They may be 100% correct. However, I have seen them in past events say to not believe weather blogs, or I would guess, sites like this. It is not like NWS Hastings hasn't missed bigly on past storms both ways. What is even more odd, on their Twitter page they ask the question if a big storm is on the way and they will have no way of knowing snow amounts for another 2-3 days. What? I typically think they are a good NWS office compared to what some of the posters on here share about their office. Sorry about the rant, but I like to see many different points of view about weather, not just what my local NWS office says. Ok, back to Christmas preparation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 NWS Hastings disco this morning is basically saying it will be all rain, no cold air for the system, and don't believe what you are hearing or seeing about a big storm. Very condescending. They seem to not want you to look at social media for ideas about storminess for next week. They may be 100% correct. However, I have seen them in past events say to not believe weather blogs, or I would guess, sites like this. It is not like NWS Hastings hasn't missed bigly on past storms both ways. What is even more odd, on their Twitter page they ask the question if a big storm is on the way and they will have no way of knowing snow amounts for another 2-3 days. What? I typically think they are a good NWS office compared to what some of the posters on here share about their office. Sorry about the rant, but I like to see many different points of view about weather, not just what my local NWS office says. Ok, back to Christmas preparation.That's rather ignorant of them after one run. I'm all for anti-hype, but only if there is near 100% certainty. This is still seven days out and every model run before the 00Z suite had the cutoff in Nebraska. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 It's about 120 hours out from coming ashore! Think about the cone of uncertainty that the NHC uses. Think how large the spread is at 120 hours! How anyone knows either way what this is going to do this far out is not dealing with a full deck. It goes with the cliche in the weather field - "Potential" winter event- but at this range that is all it really CAN be. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 That's rather ignorant of them after one run. I'm all for anti-hype, but only if there is near 100% certainty. This is still seven days out and every model run before the 00Z suite had the cutoff in Nebraska.That is what I thought. You would think they would talk up some potential if for nothing else the amount of travelers on the road. Instead should be all rain with no cold air anyplace. I guess we’ll see how it all plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 That is what I thought. You would think they would talk up some potential if for nothing else the amount of travelers on the road. Instead should be all rain with no cold air anyplace. I guess we’ll see how it all plays out.And they may end up being right about this, but it is not a WFO's responsibility to call off a potential up-in-the-air storm as just rain seven days out. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 And they may end up being right about this, but it is not a WFO's responsibility to call off a potential up-in-the-air storm as just rain seven days out.So true. As much as models have changed from run to run, nothing is set in stone this far out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 20, 2018 Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 Fv3 went south again lol. Anywho OAX did the same thing last storm saying don't look at other sites and social media. If I recall they were wrong on the storm. It gets annoying that they are telling others only they have the correct information like some God and looking to others is a sin. Why are they afraid of people being aware? So far the winter storms this year have not followed their forecast at all. I still don't know if this going to be to warm. I would rather be cautious now instead of stuck on road while all hell is breaking lose. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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