December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Kayla]

Went to poop.

 

Garbage model!!

[Kayla]

Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....

 

Now I hate it.

[Deweydog]

Old Yeller died.

Our march toward a Zihuatanejo-lite climate hasn't!

[Kayla]

I can live with the GEM though.

 

[Front Ranger]

Our march toward a Zihuatanejo-lite climate hasn't!

 

One of my all-time favorite city names.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Over an inch of rain here today, most of which fell in the morning. Not much of a rain shadow here with this pattern.

[Front Ranger]

I can live with the GEM though.

 

 

 

Moscow could live with this.

 

[Jesse]

It's coming down here right now. Heavy rain, wind, and hail.

 

20 years ago it would have been 10 degrees colder and it'd be a blizzard outside.

In a week or so that joke will gain some gravitas, as we will be tracking at 20 years since the December 1998 arctic outbreak.

[Deweydog]

12-98 was the first time I remember the MRF coming through with something in the long range. Picked things up 9-10 days and only had one significant hiccup along the way.

[BLI snowman]

Moscow could live with this.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eu_40.png

 

Pretty limited cold air supply anywhere right now in the mid latitudes. It's almost like the Earth is warm or something....

[Jesse]

Pretty limited cold air supply anywhere right now in the mid latitudes. It's almost like the Earth is warm or something....

Baffin Island! Lol!!!!

[bainbridgekid]

Getting a bit of snow up at Snoqualmie Pass currently.

 

[Jesse]

12-98 was the first time I remember the MRF coming through with something in the long range. Picked things up 9-10 days and only had one significant hiccup along the way.

Was the MRF basically the precursor to the GFS?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kind of amazing how much the GFS has been cutting back on precip with these upcoming systems.

[Timmy]

Just like that the gefs brings back hope. Pretty nice ridge retrogression into the goa. Nice 850mb temp anamoly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If this were to verify it would be my 3rd dry December in a row.

 

[Deweydog]

Was the MRF basically the precursor to the GFS?

I'm fairly certain that's the case.

[MossMan]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

If this were to verify it would be my 3rd dry December in a row.

 

 

I'm gonna venture a guess that some Nov-Dec dry records will be falling in EUG.

[BLI snowman]

Baffin Island! Lol!!!!

 

Solar minimum!!!

[MossMan]

Getting a bit of snow up at Snoqualmie Pass currently.

 

090VC05200 (1).jpg

Looks like lumpy rain to me.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty limited cold air supply anywhere right now in the mid latitudes. It's almost like the Earth is warm or something....

 

Desperate times call for desperate maps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm gonna venture a guess that some Nov-Dec dry records will be falling in EUG.

 

I'm going to venture a guess not even close. Look up 1976.

[Front Ranger]

Just like that the gefs brings back hope. Pretty nice ridge retrogression into the goa. Nice 850mb temp anamoly.

 

Dramatic improvement today in the 300+ hour period. Now let's move it up.

 

[TT-SEA]

Getting a bit of snow up at Snoqualmie Pass currently.

 

090VC05200 (1).jpg

We have discovered that camera makes all precip look heavier than it is... my son has been cross referencing with Snoqualmie Summit cams for the last few days. Even rain can look like snow. I suspect it will start dumping snow there soon with the c-zone slipping south now. That might be sleet in that image.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just like that the gefs brings back hope. Pretty nice ridge retrogression into the goa. Nice 850mb temp anamoly.

Yeah, I wasn't expecting that. Strong retrogression. Really quite close to being great. I am cautiously optimistic based on the 00z GEM and 00z GEFS which at the least gives us a strong block over Alaska.

 

Hey, Dewey, 00z ECMWF in 2 minutes!

[Front Ranger]

Solar minimum!!!

 

It will strike when you're least expecting it.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Spokane. This shows the definite potential for backdoor cold or arctic air. How you like them tabs? You know you're a weather geek when you have tabs like those.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

00z GEFS Spokane. This shows the definite potential for backdoor cold or arctic air. How you like them tabs? You know you're a weather geek when you have tabs like those.

 

Good to have u back in here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Good to have u back in here.

Thanks, you too. C'MON EURO!!!

[TT-SEA]

Just on the southern edge of the c-zone here.   A couple random ice pellets bouncing off the deck.

 

My son just got home from Snoqualmie Ridge and said it was dumping hail in North Bend and the road was covered right up to the bottom of our road which is 1.8 miles away.   He thought it would get even worse going up the hill but it completely stopped as soon as he started go up.  Our road also goes south as it goes up and it stopped because he drove past the southern edge of the c-zone.   

[Timmy]

I’m just nervous that no one has mentioned a warning shot yet this winter. We have to have one of those before we can score, right?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z GEFS Spokane. This shows the definite potential for backdoor cold or arctic air. How you like them tabs? You know you're a weather geek when you have tabs like those.

 

Definitely a good sign. Better yet if we can get those ensembles to show up for Yakima.

[TT-SEA]

I-90 at Snoqualmie Ridge and Hwy 18 just west of here now covered in hail...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Op = Awful. 00z GEFS = Decent to good. Strong retrogression

00z GEM Op = Decent to good. 00z CMCE Decent to good, Strong Retrogression

00z EP Op = Poor, possible cold pool Columbia Basin. 00z EPS? A blend of the GEFS, CMCE in my opinion.

 

00z EPS in 1 hour 5 minutes

6z GFS in 2 hours 5 minutes

[snow_wizard]

In spite of the recent model trends for the near term, I'm very optimistic it will get cold before the year is done.  The models are strongly indicating a period of extreme mid and high latituide blocking later in the month as pressure over the tropics becomes abnormally low.  Low pressure over the tropical Pacific normally favors blocking closer to the poles.  I am disappointed what appeared to be a possible quick AR to Arctic transition has probably fallen through unless it gets resurrected a bit down the road.

 

The tropics have me very intrigued as the 30 day SOI is set to soar over +5 and possibly approaching +10 later in the month in spite of warm ENSO SST's.  This is essentially unheard of.  The GFS also shows the bottom dropping out of the pressure over Australia which is often a good signal for deep Western troughing.

[Brennan]

In spite of the recent model trends for the near term, I'm very optimistic it will get cold before the year is done. The models are strongly indicating a period of extreme mid and high latituide blocking later in the month as pressure over the tropics becomes abnormally low. Low pressure over the tropical Pacific normally favors blocking closer to the poles. I am disappointed what appeared to be a possible quick AR to Arctic transition has probably fallen through unless it gets resurrected a bit down the road.

 

The tropics have me very intrigued as the 30 day SOI is set to soar over +5 and possibly approaching +10 later in the month in spite of warm ENSO SST's. This is essentially unheard of. The GFS also shows the bottom dropping out of the pressure over Australia which is often a good signal for deep Western troughing.

Keep an eye on the low pressure at Darwin!!! Remember our research of the sub 1000 readings???

[snow_wizard]

Keep an eye on the low pressure at Darwin!!! Remember our research of the sub 1000 readings???

 

Indeed!  I'm really excited about what the GFS is showing for tropics during week two.  Basically a very low pressure strongly positive SOI.  That combo can be dynamite for us.

[MossMan]

Fun!

[ShawniganLake]

Much better looking EPS tonight