Deweydog Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1914-unpopular-opinions-on-weather/http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/20-mountain-west-discussion/?view=getnewpost Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Would rather read some off topic facts than have to scroll past Tims continued efforts to prove how much rain he gets, even after being warned. Kind of reminds me of my 2 year old daughter... I can tell her not to do something, but she will continue to push the boundaries if I don't actually enforce a punishment.Its weather related and the stuff with Jared was valid debate and discussion. But moving it to it's own thread was a good idea because it detracts from the rest of the discussion here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/20-mountain-west-discussion/?view=getnewpost http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/74-chico-california-weather-history/ Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Any guesses as to the main event with the SSW? Next week, week after? I like hearing your analyses and guesses on this stuff.Between January 1-10 is when I’d watch for the initial effects of the SSW out there (big block over AK and the western Arctic). The problem is the tropical forcing turns to crap after January 10th, so ideally you’d want the SSW to complete ASAP (assuming full dissonance from the tropics out of convenience). It would look similar to Jan 2013 in large scale structure, but the exact placement of the block will determine whether this ends up being a legitimate Arctic blast, or a brush to the east and/or fake cold type setup. Either way, something is going to happen. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Between January 1-10 is when I’d watch for the initial effects of the SSW out there (big block over AK and the western Arctic). The problem is the tropical forcing turns to crap after January 10th, so ideally you’d want the SSW to complete ASAP (assuming full dissonance from the tropics out of convenience). It would look similar to Jan 2013 in large scale structure, but the exact placement of the block will determine whether this ends up being a legitimate Arctic blast, or a brush to the east and/or fake cold type setup. Either way, something is going to happen. Something not nothing is all that matters. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 54 with partly sunny skies and an east wind close to the shortest day of the year. Pretty Niño-ish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 54 with partly sunny skies and an east wind close to the shortest day of the year. Pretty Niño-ish. Lucky! 46 with heavy mist here most of the day... pretty December-ish. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Lucky! 46 with heavy mist here most of the day... pretty December-ish.Only you would call it "heavy mist" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 DRUNKLE. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Only you would call it "heavy mist"It is. And its typical of warm fronts here. Very fine but drenching wet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 I have seen many people on here describe it that way. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 What would you say the odds are we see 60-70 mile per hour winds in the Metro area tomorrow??? I say 50%. What say you// Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 What would you say the odds are we see 60-70 mile per hour winds in the Metro area tomorrow??? I say 50%. What say you// I guess it depends on which metro you are referring to. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 I guess it depends on which metro you are referring to.Oops. I mean Everett to Tacoma Metro area. Please excuse the misleading post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 peak gusts - 57mph gusts over Renton? Looking at the progression of the frames, looks like a swath of winds move up from the south sound from about noon in Olympia, 4pm for Seattle, and 6pm for Everett.Finally some fun to track! Time to start tapping the barometer to make the needle fall. This is followed by the words “theirs something Big out there” as my dad used to say. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 peak gusts - 57mph gusts over Renton? Looking at the progression of the frames, looks like a swath of winds move up from the south sound from about noon in Olympia, 4pm for Seattle, and 6pm for Everett.I have seen post frontal westerlies in storms like this in the past that produced 60-70 mph gusts in Mukilteo about 15 years ago and it blew over a willow tree that seemed indestructible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Some people get touchy when their locale misses out. I'm sure we would get cranky people between Abbotsford and Olympia if this was a Willamette Special.Oaaaah Yeah. We're just ooooot nnn abooot eh? Bunch a hoser 'mericans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Some people get touchy when their locale misses out. I'm sure we would get cranky people between Abbotsford and Olympia if this was a Willamette Special. I wasn’t being touchy, he isn’t a frequent poster here, and I don’t know where he lives. 99% of the time I’m on my mobile for this forum and it doesn’t give out locales easily. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 My bad.All good. There is at least one poster in here that has been asking that question legitimately about pdx for days now so nothing wouldn’t surprise me now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Some people get touchy when their locale misses out. I'm sure we would get cranky people between Abbotsford and Olympia if this was a Willamette Special.Accurate. I’m pretty cranky right now, we are so overdue for a decent blow. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 18z bumped up precip totals just a little. Almost 4” down here through hour 180. More in line with the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Looking at the models I’m not buying a Seattle windstorm yet. At face value only gusts of 35-40 with isolated spots higher. EURO puts much higher winds south of the sound, with gusts into the 40s at Salem. This wasn’t there in previous runs. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 This could be the second month in a row for me with 16" of rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 This could be the second month in a row for me with 16" of rain.Enjoy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted December 13, 2018 Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Phil, so when is this supposed SSW suppose to start and finish? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 This could be the second month in a row for me with 16" of rain.Just to clarify what 16 inches looks like with this euro hair model That’s a lot of hair!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Phil, so when is this supposed SSW suppose to start and finish?It starts D8-9, as currently modeled. Would probably complete the wave-1 cycle around New Years. Looks like a mostly wave-1 dominated breakdown for now, but it could easily make the wave-2 transition towards the end, which (dynamically speaking) favors western cold more than wave-1 for a slew of complex reasons that aren’t worth getting into right now. The next question is how does it affect the tropical forcing during January? The tropical tropopause will almost certainly cool and elevate, which will ignite deep convection with powerful diabatic feedback potential. The models are probably not resolving this properly right now (especially the GFS/GEFS, which has a history of miserable failure with these processes). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Alerts so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Phil, so when is this supposed SSW suppose to start and finish?8 days, 35 minutes, and 4 seconds from now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 18z Parallel GFS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 This has to be the most advertised and anticipated Sudden Stratosphere Warming event in history. #SSW 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olyman Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 I'm not good at reading models, so maybe I'm misreading something, but the EPS control run on Weatherbell looks like Barney the Dinosaur invaded the PNW. No one has mentioned this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 It starts D8-9, as currently modeled. Would probably complete the wave-1 cycle around New Years. Looks like a mostly wave-1 dominated breakdown for now, but it could easily make the wave-2 transition towards the end, which (dynamically speaking) favors western cold more than wave-1 for a slew of complex reasons that aren’t worth getting into right now. The next question is how does it affect the tropical forcing during January? The tropical tropopause will almost certainly cool and elevate, which will ignite deep convection with powerful diabatic feedback potential. The models are probably not resolving this properly right now (especially the GFS/GEFS, which has a history of miserable failure with these processes).Thanks for the detailed info, Bryant not so much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTEDNational Weather Service Seattle WA308 PM PST Thu Dec 13 2018 WAZ504-509-511-556-558-559-141300-/O.COR.KSEW.HW.A.0004.181214T1800Z-181215T0300Z/Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-308 PM PST Thu Dec 13 2018 ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGHFRIDAY EVENING... * WIND...South wind 30 to 40 mph with gusts 50 to 60 mph are possible. * SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...Seattle, Bellevue, Tacoma and Bremerton. * TIMING...10 AM Friday morning through 7 PM Friday evening. * IMPACTS...Snapped tree branches and downed trees along with local power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardoushigh wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph, or gusts of58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latestforecasts. && $$ www.weather.gov/seattle 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 This has to be the most advertised and anticipated Sudden Stratosphere Warming event in history. #SSWAfter what happened last year, everyone is becoming stratosphere junkie now. I’m especially looking forward to the insane model swings that will envelop the wx-weeniesphere over the coming weeks. Gonna be madness. 5 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 I'm not good at reading models, so maybe I'm misreading something, but the EPS control run on Weatherbell looks like Barney the Dinosaur invaded the PNW. No one has mentioned this. Map pls? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 18z Parallel GFS?It's close to becoming great. Very frigid Arctic air makes its way into BC. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Just to clarify what 16 inches looks like with this euro hair model That’s a lot of hair!!Long hair on women drive me crazy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 #384forlife 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 14, 2018 Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 Edit: never mind, it’s listed in the footer. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.