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December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


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I liked the 12z GFS.

 

Was a big step in the right direction and would give folks up north some action finally.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Was a big step in the right direction and would give folks up north some action finally.

Just taking a broad brushed look at things, it is nice to see that an active pattern with even a small amount of potential may not be cutting off as quickly as originally advertised.

 

More storms and mountain snow at very least.

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Looks to be a quick change to rain though. Super progressive and quick moving transition as shown, but it is "something".

 

Talking about an hour 240 map being a quick change to rain when the models can't make up their mind in the 5 day range... must be the optimist in you

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Talking about an hour 240 map being a quick change to rain when the models can't make up their mind in the 5 day range... must be the optimist in you

I 100% agree!!!  I was just posting for interest not that it would verify or actually happen. It was also in correlation with the earlier related post. Just sharing not predicting, so be nice. ;) BUT I do agree with you, but if I had said what you said I would have been attacked for being debby-downer. lol -- 

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Does anyone know the current rain streak for SEA and a quick link to find that info?  Wasn't sure if noaa is the best location to find that info.  I had a link to it but lost it and am too lazy to dig it back up from the site.

 

4 days. They were completely dry on 12/24.

 

Speaking of SEA, the +3.8 they are running on the month is *surprise* easily the warmest of anywhere in western WA.

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12Z ensembles definitely a step in the wrong direction though.

 

Isn't that Jan 4-6 period cooler than the overnight run? Also the LR had some members dropping down to the magic -8 at 850s so that seems a bit improved but who knows?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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I’m at 22 days. Almost 10” in that span.

 

 

Yeah... SEA would be the same if not for the one dry day.     

 

SEA is at 5.02 inches for the month and the 12Z ECMWF shows over an inch there in the next 48 hours.    So it will be a wetter than normal month there.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah... SEA would be the same if not for the one dry day.     

 

SEA is at 5.02 inches for the month and the 12Z ECMWF shows over an inch there in the next 48 hours.    So it will be a wetter than normal month there.

 

2 of those days only had a trace and 2 more had .01". Looks like 2-3 dry days coming up after Saturday.

 

Seattle WFO, BLI, and OLM are all still below normal for the month.

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Up to 45 so we shall see if we get to 50 again this afternoon. We have had 15 days in Dec at 50 or higher but I'm going to assume there are years where it has been worse.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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What a convoluted pattern...

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

 

DKfail.gif

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 of those days only had a trace and 2 more had .01". Looks like 2-3 dry days coming up after Saturday.

 

Seattle WFO, BLI, and OLM are all still below normal for the month.

OLM will likely end up above normal... along with UIL and HQM.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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If January somehow ends up a nationwide torch, it would be another win for that July - January correlation I brought up earlier.

 

(Obviously 100% coincidental since it’s only worked since 2012, but it’s still fun to track statistical flukes like that).

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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EPAC forcing in summer = large GOA vortex, all else being equal. Perhaps shifted eastward enough to kill the blob?

 

Been awhile since the EPAC has trumped the WPAC during JJA.

 

nH3qOob.jpg

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Blob is pretty much dead.

For the time being. It will try to return in J/F/M/A as tropical forcing/wavetrain climo pulls the GOA vortex westward towards the Aleutians with more ridging developing along the immediate west coast as time passes.

 

Should the EPAC/WHEM take over next summer while the WPAC maintains a relatively low profile, that would make for an interesting background state. It used to be pretty commonplace back in the 1980s/90s but since 1998 it’s been fleeting at best.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Probably. Warm ENSO. +PDO

If you’re a cool summer fan in the PNW, you do generally want the Pacific shut down altogether w/ forcing relegated to the IO/EHEM. Which looks unlikely for obvious reasons.

 

But EPAC forcing isn’t the hideous, disgusting west coast super ridge forcing state that WPAC/dateline forcing typically is. Usually, the latter displaces the 4CH eastward to some extent, keeping the worst stuff over the intermountain west.

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Great. Another summer where we have to listen to dp's and humidity from the east coast. Someone needs to move I would think.

You’re preaching to the choir, brother.

 

Ideally, I have a few years of school left then I’m moving north and/or west.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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For the time being. It will try to return in J/F/M/A as tropical forcing/wavetrain climo pulls the GOA vortex westward towards the Aleutians with more ridging developing along the immediate west coast as time passes.

 

Should the EPAC/WHEM take over next summer while the WPAC maintains a relatively low profile, that would make for an interesting background state. It used to be pretty commonplace back in the 1980s/90s but since 1998 it’s been fleeting at best.

Maybe not as hot summer with more rain?

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But I’ll keep my b*tching and moaning confined to the banter thread and/or eastern thread next year. You guys have my word on this one. :wub:

 

Though I’m sure Tim will just take my place unless it’s another nuclear hot summer with deadly fires and catastrophic drought. In which case he’ll be content but still unhappy.

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You’re preaching to the choir, brother.

 

Ideally, I have a few years of school left then I’m moving north and/or west.

 

PDX or bust. You need to visit OR at some point man.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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MUDDY DOGS!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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But I’ll keep my b*tching and moaning confined to the banter thread and/or eastern thread next year. You guys have my word on this one. :wub:

 

Though I’m sure Tim will just take my place unless it’s another nuclear hot summer with deadly fires and catastrophic drought. In which case he’ll be content but still unhappy.

We definitely had catastrophic drought in my area in 2018. It was only near normal for precipitation for the year instead of 20 inches above normal like every year from 2014-17. How do the trees survive with only 80-100 inches of rain??

 

Horrific.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Partly cloudy and pleasant here. We have hit 50 for the 16th time this Dec.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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