January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Farmboy]

I'm rooting for you guys, I really hope this storm happens. However, if pressed on where to place a monetary bet, I'd probably have to go with bsf...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm rooting for you guys, I really hope this storm happens. However, if pressed on where to place a monetary bet, I'd probably have to go with bsf...

 

South valley will have it either way so...solid prediction.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

Let's hope these bring the goodies tonight.  Which one is which? GFS? EC? GEM?

 

Or are they each different kinds of beer?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I've seen the wrf do well in the past. A marginal setup is when we get most of our big snows.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I've seen the wrf do well in the past. A marginal setup is when we get most of our big snows.

 

Yup, western Washington special coming up.  Willamette Valley does best in Arctic situations when the upper level conditions are favorable so it's fascinating to see how the different microclimates have different favorable setups.  This setup is pretty much perfect for you if it pans out. 

[Omegaraptor]

Lowest temp in the forecast is 37º. I don't see it happening.

[FroYoBro]

Lowest temp in the forecast is 37º. I don't see it happening.

 

Internet forecasts don't decide the weather. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Lowest temp in the forecast is 37º. I don't see it happening.

Apps are slow to change. I trust these guys and the models more.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You’ve come a long way from your “we must secede!!!” rhetoric.

 

On occasion I battle these temporary bouts of sanity.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z NAM landfalls a low on the Northern California Coast Sunday night. To the north of the low appears to be a very heavy band of snow over the Umpqua Valley. Pretty chilly air to the north of the low. 

 

[Timmy]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z would probably produce a quick 1-2" of snow up here Sunday morning, but the low Sunday night is pretty D**n interesting. Snow levels would get very low on the backside of this low if precip really hangs around like this and cooler air aloft floods in. 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Roseburg special.  You don't see that every day. Maybe some flakes in the air here? Hmmmmm...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That track is probably a wind event Albany-south...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

522 thickness line into Clark County while NE Washington gets pounded with snow.

 

Would not surprise me to see some lowland snow somewhere north of this low or once it passes. 

 

[Timmy]

18z is definitely colder Monday morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The next low Tuesday morning is still throwing up that deformation band over W. Oregon up into W. Washington. At face value could be good for West Valley (Forest Grove) locations, and SW WA/Hood Canal. 

[Timmy]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cushman Lake is buried...

[BLI snowman]

The next low Tuesday morning is still throwing up that deformation band over W. Oregon up into W. Washington. At face value could be good for West Valley (Forest Grove) locations, and SW WA/Hood Canal. 

 

Very snowy from Seattle north on this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

72-96 hour period has similar amounts of snow for our locations. That period is probably rain to snow here, and then hour 96-120 here would probably be snow to rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very snowy from Seattle north on this run.

 

Yes, at face value it is a pretty good setup for them. I don't see much of a chance for actual snow accumulations (Despite great GFS snow maps) at the valley floor anywhere south of Portland except west valley perhaps. 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW - after a very brief period of possible wet snow in the morning... the 12Z ECMWF shows high temps approaching 60 degrees in the foothills next Tuesday.

 

[Farmboy]

Cushman Lake is buried...

No doubt 1,000 feet along Hood Canal would be the place to be for this event...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z NAM landfalls a low on the Northern California Coast Sunday night. To the north of the low appears to be a very heavy band of snow over the Umpqua Valley. Pretty chilly air to the north of the low.

 

Isn't 18z 10am pacific time??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FWIW - after a very brief period of possible wet snow in the morning... the 12Z ECMWF shows high temps approaching 60 degrees in the foothills next Tuesday.

 

 

Yeah next Tuesday is going to torch in Western Oregon. As that warm from lifts north warm air aloft surges in and with possible sunbreaks in the afternoon it could be pretty warm. 

 

Wednesday is probably cooler as the precip moves back onshore and temps aloft begin to cool as the trough approaches.

[Deweydog]

Internet forecasts don't decide the weather.

Internet forums decide the weather.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Oh my fuckk. Regional event.

[El_Nina]

Oh my fuckk. Regional event.

Not really. It's best to toss out all the areas under 2" for a more accurate map.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Speaking of torching...Just took a look at Western Oregon obs right now. 

[Bryant]

FWIW - after a very brief period of possible wet snow in the morning... the 12Z ECMWF shows high temps approaching 60 degrees in the foothills next Tuesday.

 

Classic Tim... wait for the forum to get excited about snow, then show a 60 degree forecast to kill the mood. But hey, you're just reporting what the models show right? Can't help being a f*cking buzzkill can you?

[Front Ranger]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Classic Tim... wait for the forum to get excited about snow, then show a 60 degree forecast to kill the mood. But hey, you're just reporting what the models show right? Can't help being a f*cking buzzkill can you?

 

So obvious it's not even worth pointing out. On the other hand if I get some snow over the next few days during this dud of a winter, I could really care less if it melts in an afternoon. 

[ShawniganLake]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Classic Tim... wait for the forum to get excited about snow, then show a 60 degree forecast to kill the mood. But hey, you're just reporting what the models show right? Can't help being a f*cking buzzkill can you?

 

I could see those temps verifying if the pattern verified verbatim. Especially at the higher elevations. At the lower elevations it would depend on how much low level cold hung on or mixing there was. 

[TT-SEA]

No way it warms up that quickly up here unless there is some raging southerly flow behind the front.

 

This probably why it shows it warming up so quickly...

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

56 right now and will probly hit 60 

[TT-SEA]

I could see those temps verifying if the pattern verified verbatim. Especially at the higher elevations. At the lower elevations it would depend on how much low level cold hung on or mixing there was. 

 

 

Definitely could happen where it mixes out.  

[TT-SEA]

56 right now and will probly hit 60 

 

 

56 here as well... and dry now with a good south wind.

 

54 at SEA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This probably why it shows it warming up so quickly...

 

 

At the lower levels it doesn't always warm up that much after warm frontal passage in the absence of solid mixing, but above 1500' that would be a very warm day. The models/ensembles have been consistently showing that next Tuesday/Wednesday will be warm, so I don't know why this is bothering people. Other than you obviously timed posting this just to mess with people.