January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Omegaraptor]

Mountain snow for 2/2-2/4 just keeps getting better and better! YES!

[TT-SEA]

He did not blow it. He waffled kinda like we all do and just like the models do also.

 

 

Bryant hates me with every fiber of being.    So he has no credibility when it comes to me.   He is driven by pure hatred.  

[Jesse]

PDX still hanging at 39 with low clouds. Wonder if we will end up stuck in the soup again today.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF screws most of western WA and OR.  

 

The trough digs offshore down to CA and leaves us in no man's land.

 

Total snow through next Monday morning... when the precip is basically done per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

[Jesse]

The 12Z ECMWF screws most of western WA and OR.

 

The trough digs offshore down to CA and leaves us in no man's land.

 

Total snow through next Monday morning... when the precip is basically done per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

Might have to bump that 80-90% chance down to a more conservative 75-85%.

[BLI snowman]

I’m still pretty floored to see the ensemble agreement for anything in early February. Looks like it could potentially be a several day period of -PNA as well, as opposed to a quick hitter like one might expect in the context of this winter. Still not quite sure what to make of it.

 

This post doesn’t have anything to do with whether or not the NWS should start issuing warnings ten days in advance, btw. Just some general discussion on how strange it would be to get anything in the window advertised in a winter like this.

 

Yeah, which is why I would still bet against anything significant or long lasting occurring. Unlike in 1887, we don't have a strong La Nina and a cold friendly climate on our side. If anything actually happens then I guess it's a case of our 8-9 climo trumping our climo climo.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF isn't bad, but it doesn't get as wild as the GFS.  This could be due to the GFS indicating a much more robust MJO wave in octant 7 than the ECMWF.  The recent trend on MJO forecasts has been for the GFS to overdo the waves and the ECMWF to underdo them.  A compromise between the models seems the way to go right now.  A blend would be pretty darn good.

[snow_wizard]

What happened? Slid east?

 

I think the block collapsed and the cold air didn't get pushed south.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The ecmwf snow maps at least in north east wa have not been as accurate as the mm5 the last month fwiw.

[BLI snowman]

The 12Z ECMWF screws most of western WA and OR.  

 

The trough digs offshore down to CA and leaves us in no man's land.

 

Total snow through next Monday morning... when the precip is basically done per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

 

 

Surface details notwithstanding, the upper level pattern is actually pretty good and brings the cold offshore flow in a little bit quicker.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not bad for this far out. Of course surface maps this far out are a joke usually.

[Phil]

All of the day10-15 period looks very stable. The result is

 

01261C1E-678D-40E7-994E-3EA7CACF05C6.png 92471065-B374-4858-84CC-43A00ACF4A64.png

The long range ensemble mean looks stable, but I suspect the result will be anything but given the relatively short duration of this jet retraction in a regime of AAM deposition. Not really an easy pattern to model (especially from afar).

[TT-SEA]

The ecmwf snow maps at least in north east wa have not been as accurate as the mm5 the last month fwiw.

 

 

The problem with the ECMWF is the 500mb pattern... the main energy digs offshore and down into CA and then the entire trough shifts east.

 

The WRF will definitely change if the ECMWF has the 500mb pattern correct.    That is the big question though.   

[Phil]

Bryant hates me with every fiber of being. So he has no credibility when it comes to me. He is driven by pure hatred.

Lol, he doesn’t hate you. He hates your anti-cold troll schtick (and your love of palm trees). Fix that and you’re fine.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I've always wanted to know what model is best with each type of pattern. The euro has played catch up the last few days compared to the gfs.

[BLI snowman]

Euro isn't bad, just not quite robust enough to dig the initial arctic airmass very much. We're left with chilly offshore flow in the believable window and a favorable looking setup for continued cold in the 11-15 day timeframe, similar to the GFS/GEFS.

[TT-SEA]

Lol, he doesn’t hate you. He hates your anti-cold troll schtick (and your love of palm trees). Fix that and you’re fine.

BS. Everyone has a right to like whatever weather they like. I am not telling anyone else what to like. Palm trees? We mention that once a year... maybe. Who cares what trees people like? I have no palm trees here.

 

He has a true hatred of me. There is nothing to fix. He never stops.

 

For years... his biggest complaint was my interaction with Jim. I fixed that and it seems to have pissed him off more.

 

He is angry man. He should put me on ignore. I literally will never respond to his posts if he just ignores me.

 

Hopefully a ban will come if he keeps it up. I was banned for hounding Jim... and rightfully so.

[seattleweatherguy]

Lol, he doesn’t hate you. He hates your anti-cold troll schtick (and your love of palm trees). Fix that and you’re fine.

Phil is there a chance this cold happens?

[ShawniganLake]

Not bad for this far out. Of course surface maps this far out are a joke usually.

Other than that c-zone signature it Looks like probably some light snow in the air for some people

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Other than that c-zone signature it Looks like probably some light snow in the air for some people

 

I'm pretty certain this pattern will deliver for someone along the east coast of Vancouver Island. Much like the initial blast last February that nailed the Nanaimo - Parksville area and a narrow convergence zone. Down here our best hope is probably in having some energy hang back and form a secondary low on Sunday. It's hard to score snow when the trough is moving that quickly.

[ShawniganLake]

[Phil]

Could be better, could be worse. If Feb is cold then “frontloaded” might not have been the best phraseology.

 

I guess 2 out of 3? I don’t think the late January jet extension/Pineapple Express verified (the jet didn’t extend very far).

 

The rough outline of my thoughts (from a lower frequency perspective) remains the same: a frontloaded winter in the west, a warm January, and a “muted” February, with a relatively strong jet compared to most +ENSO years.

 

What to watch for:

- A big time Pineapple Express event affecting the west between 1/10 and 2/10. (Mostly a bust).

 

- The PV/NAM disruptions (and possibly a SSW) are favored to occur during the front half of winter. If we fail to kill the vortex by 1/15, then a late final warming (like the spring of 1997) is favored, which would coincide with an anomalous pattern in MAM). (Verified).

 

- I don’t see the +ENSO climo type progression that roasts the West in February this year. I think the warm period will actually be centered in January this year, then maybe again in March (but that’s less certain).(Probably verifies).

[Phil]

No.

Yes.

 

Obviously, whether it makes it south of the border/over the terrain is another question. I’m not sure the pattern will last as long as the models currently project, though. There’s a truckload of AAM still in the subtropics and there’s more deposition in the pipeline.

[Jesse]

Yes.

 

Obviously, whether it makes it south of the border/over the terrain is another question. I’m not sure the pattern will last as long as the models currently project, though. There’s a truckload of AAM still in the subtropics and there’s more deposition in the pipeline.

I literally don’t think I’ve ever seen you go bullish on a cold period for us when one is actually within modeled range. Sure, when they are perpetually around the corner, 3-4 weeks/years away. But once it gets within the long range of the GFS forget about it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm ready for arctic express 2019.

[Deweydog]

Nice day!

[Jesse]

Nice day!

Above the low clouds up there?

 

#watercondensedintheboundarylayerisnevernice

[Deweydog]

Above the low clouds up there?

 

#watercondensedintheboundarylayerisnevernice

Throw in a Tim’s lawyer reference here and it would have been a Sunday komedy trifecta!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Jesse]

Throw in a Tim’s lawyer reference here and it would have been a Sunday komedy trifecta!

Yeah, should have worked it in somehow. There has been a good deal of vicTimization going on this morning.

[TT-SEA]

And you have now jinxed it

 

 

I got the new snowblower out of the shed and ready to go... I am standing by to fire it up.     

 

Also sent out an e-mail to everyone in my Outlook contact list telling them to prepare for a blizzard.   

[Deweydog]

Yeah, should have worked it in somehow. There has been a good deal of vicTimization going on this morning.

2 late. Now it would just seem desperate and sad.

[Blizzard777]

Willamette National Cemetery up on Mt. Scott very foggy and a bit chilly

Good day for a zombie movie

[Jesse]

2 late. Now it would just seem desperate and sad.

Like Bryant. He a stinky stinky boy!!! :lol:

[Blizzard777]

Ooops....that’s a HUGE photo!

[TT-SEA]

Like Bryant. He a stinky stinky boy!!! :lol:

 

 

Reeks of desperation!  

[Deweydog]

Like Bryant. He a stinky stinky boy!!! :lol:

Double lolz!!!

[Phil]

I literally don’t think I’ve ever seen you go bullish on a cold period for us when one is actually within modeled range. Sure, when they are perpetually around the corner, 3-4 weeks/years away. But once it gets within the long range of the GFS forget about it.

Lol. Seems the models love to spit out cold solutions when the forcing state is either “meh” or past its peak in favorability.

 

FWIW, I’m not saying it won’t happen, but it doesn’t look like an Arctic pattern to me. I don’t think there’s enough time.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice trends on 12z runs. The 12z GEFS has increased the chances of arctic air sliding down into the Columbia Basin/eastern Gorge. The EURO is close, but not there yet. We need improved amplification.

[TT-SEA]

Nice trends on 12z runs. The 12z GEFS has increased the chances of arctic air sliding down into the Columbia Basin/eastern Gorge. The EURO is close, but not there yet. We need improved amplification.

 

 

I think we actually need a little less amplification on the 12Z ECMWF... the trough digs a little too far offshore.