January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18z FV3 850s of -29c sloshing over the Canadian border into North Central Washington. WOW!

 

Frigid! 850mb temps get even colder down to -32C in the next frame.

[Winterdog]

Is that what I said?

Nor did I say "the models are more likely to be wrong than right after 3 days".  Not all the models are in agreement.  By saying "the models" the implication would be that all the models were in agreement.  I agree, if all the models were saying snow and cold within 3 days there would be a better than 50/50 chance for colder and possibly snowy weather to follow.  When this all boils down all I was saying is that we've seen the models fall away when we are 5 days out especially when they aren't all in lock step.  I might have thrown in a little hyperbole.   

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  The FV3 and ECMWF sent me into orbit today.  Been a long time since we have seen something so good in the believable range.

[HighlandExperience]

Holy crap! The FV3 and ECMWF sent mwe into orbit today. Been a long time since we have seen something so good in the believable range.

Glad you back

[Jesse]

Holy crap! The FV3 and ECMWF sent me into orbit today. Been a long time since we have seen something so good in the believable range.

Might have to put our meeting off until the snow clears up.

[Deweydog]

F*ck this f*cking climate.

[Jesse]

F*ck this f*cking climate.

Leave him be, Tim.

[snow_wizard]

FV3 keeps 850s at both PDX and SEA at -7C or below from Sunday night through to almost the end of the run.

 

Also, genuine question here as I have really fallen out of the weather hobby in recent years, but is there any reason us weenies are not putting more weight to the FV3 over the old GFS at this point? From what I've read, from a technical standpoint it is a far superior model. It's going to be replacing the operational GFS this year, so I'm inclined to think it is far more likely to have a good handle on things than the GFS is. Is it just because it's unproven and new?

 

This will be a fabulous test for the FV3.  It latched onto this possible major cold scenario early next week before the Euro did.  If it pans out you could say it outperformed the Euro on seeing it ahead of time.  The ECMWF ensemble is the other model that has insisted on early next week being cold.

[Deweydog]

Leave him be, Tim.

Live forum PD.

 

Jim’s a big boy.

[snow_wizard]

Glad you back

 

I've been here the past couple of days.

[snow_wizard]

For the record IF this happens we wil be defying the odds to an insane degree.  Having the early and mid winter torch with warm ENSO followed by a cold Feb would be extremely rare.  On the other hand this season has already been full of unlikely events such as the extreme torch in the early winter and the +10 30 day SOI we recently had in spite of the weak Nino.  It's pretty likely ENSO is not the main driver this winter.

[snow_wizard]

Might have to put our meeting off until the snow clears up.

 

We just might.  I'm still game for it in the near future.

[snow_wizard]

HUGE runs tonight!

 

That's for sure.  I was glad to see the GFS make a good move toward the FV3 and ECMWF on the 18z.

[snow_wizard]

The big difference with the models that turn out good is a low that devlops off the coast of soutern BC and later merges with the main continental trough.  That features shows up clearly on the ECMWF ensemble, which makes the chances decent it will verify.  All ECMWF models show another cold shot on or just after day 10.

[Guest Sounder]

Mark just dropped the s bomb on Fox 12!!! We're screwed!!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Mark just dropped the s bomb on Fox 12!!! We're screwed!!!!!

 

Get the forks out 

[Geos]

18z FV3 850s of -29c sloshing over the Canadian border into North Central Washington. WOW!

 

 

Good Lord, that's crazy.

[snow_wizard]

Mark just dropped the s bomb on Fox 12!!! We're screwed!!!!!

 

It probably depends on the context.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Farmboy]

I have a bad feeling the mets are gonna jinx this one. Too bad they can't just keep their big fat mouths shut.

[Guest Sounder]

I have a bad feeling the mets are gonna jinx this one. Too bad they can't just keep their big fat mouths shut.

Yeah!! Quit changing our weather with your forecasts, idiot mets!!! Let the autistic weather forum posters handle this one!!!

[Deweydog]

My wife asked me about an hour ago if it was supposed to snow next week. Has to be a good/bad sign.

[Jesse]

It probably depends on the context.

Yeah, Mark’s not usually one to snowsquall things up too much. Whatever he said is probably a pretty reasonable take.

[Guest Sounder]

Yeah, Mark’s not usually one to snowsquall things up too much. Whatever he said is probably a pretty reasonable take.

It was. He stated confidently that it will be cold next week, snow levels definitely down to around 2,000', but that "a couple models are showing snow down to sea level" and he might need to revise his 5 day forecast to say that.

[TT-SEA]

It was. He stated confidently that it will be cold next week, snow levels definitely down to around 2,000', but that "a couple models are showing snow down to sea level" and he might need to revise his 5 day forecast to say that.

He could have screamed SNOWMAGEDDON or said it will be 60 and sunny next week... and whatever will happen will still happen.

[Requiem]

Yeah!! Quit changing our weather with your forecasts, idiot mets!!! Let the autistic weather forum posters handle this one!!!

 

I'm fine with the sentiment of the post, but it isn't the greatest thing to be flinging around "autistic" as an insult.

[crf450ish]

BACK LOADED WINTER

[Geos]

I created an image collage to show just how much colder for Monday onward the FV3 has trended since the 00z run last night.

 

20 degrees colder for Monday and Wednesday.

27 degrees colder for Tuesday.

16 degrees colder for Thursday.

 

I mean, wow. Quite the change.

 

Coldest on my b-day, that's awesome! 

[Deweydog]

Junk in the trunk!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

He could have screamed SNOWMAGEDDON or said it will be 60 and sunny next week... and whatever will happen will still happen.

Yup. It is amazing how many people believe in jinxes. Like people who think s potential no-hitter is jinxed if the announcer says a no-hitter is going on.

[Esquimalt]

00Z Icon!!!

[Front Ranger]

For the record IF this happens we wil be defying the odds to an insane degree. Having the early and mid winter torch with warm ENSO followed by a cold Feb would be extremely rare. On the other hand this season has already been full of unlikely events such as the extreme torch in the early winter and the +10 30 day SOI we recently had in spite of the weak Nino. It's pretty likely ENSO is not the main driver this winter.

8-9 with low solar. A complete miss would be an even greater upset.

[Andrew.]

[Requiem]

00Z Icon!!!

 

It's running!

[Andrew.]

It's running!

Better go catch it!

[Requiem]

Better go catch it!

 

Too fast for me!

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah, Mark’s not usually one to snowsquall things up too much. Whatever he said is probably a pretty reasonable take.

 

I watched it, he said snow levels will be down to 1000ft at least but there are 2 models (Euro and FV3?) that show snow to sea level but he is discounting those solutions for now. 

[Perturbed Member]

!!!

00z ICON

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ICON ridge is more amplified. Bitter air nearing Bellingham at Day 5.5

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1