January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

1-30-19 2:40 PM [Model Countdown]
Next up....
00z NAM in 3 hours 1 minute (5:41 PM)

 

Later this evening....
00z GFS in 4 hours 47 minutes (7:27 PM)
00z GEM/CMC in 5 hours 10 minutes (7:50 PM)
00z ECMWF in 7 hours 5 minutes (9:45 PM)

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!!
❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift gon be a party tonight!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

We waited ALL Winter for this. Soak it in. Enjoy it. C'MON!!! Cold and SNOW!!!!

All the hard work. All those late nights. All those sleepless nights. All those detailed model analysis. All those maps. This is what it's all about. As much as it's about the final destination, it's also about the journey. There's been ups and downs but we are still standing. We all deserve to get a big snowstorm and hopefully that will happen. Let's go Cold and Snow! ❄

[TT-SEA]

6” at my place if I remember correctly!

You are like the rain man of snow events!

[Deweydog]

Yeah, the attempted associations to climate change by some sources are annoying.

 

But honestly, I've seen several news articles referencing the "split" in the polar vortex (like this one), which may not be Phil-tastic enough from a scientific perspective, but is basically accurate.

 

Seems like less hype than winter 2013-14, when the media first started using the term. So I'll give them some credit this time around.

Been a lot of social media warriors trying to dispel myths that this cold wave attacks climate change alarmists at the core. They’re running with the fact this cold is the result of “warming.” Idiots vs. idiots. I think the idiots will take it.

[Front Ranger]

Been a lot of social media warriors trying to dispel myths that this cold wave attacks climate change alarmists at the core. They’re running with the fact this cold is the result of “warming.” Idiots vs. idiots. I think the idiots will take it.

 

Sudden Catastrophic Warming.

[Esquimalt]

So close to a backdoor blast in the clown range.

[TT-SEA]

So close to a backdoor blast in the clown range.

 

 

So much more to focus on in the near term... as opposed to the long range 18Z GFS.

 

The EPS shows it will stay cold all the way through the first half of February so I would worry too much about the clown range.   Its very likely that it will trend colder and the time approaches... much like what is happening now with the first round.    

 

The EPS has been a consistent backdrop of cold and its proving to be correct.  

[Esquimalt]

FV3 now showing a secondary, 992 mb low developing off of Central Vancouver Island late sunday morning. Interesting.

[Deweydog]

#keep300hoursrelevant

[Jbolin]

#keep300hoursrelevant

#ModelRidingLivesMatter 

[Prairiedog]

So close to a backdoor blast in the clown range.

We've waited so long to get outside the clown range, it's really nice to finally get to focus on something that might be close to imminent.  Way too much CR, not enough "within 4 days".

[Perturbed Member]

We've waited so long to get outside the clown range, it's really nice to finally get to focus on something that might be close to imminent.  Way too much CR, not enough "within 4 days".

 

Yeah it is really nice to not have to look wishfully at a 300+ hr map. Honestly we haven't even had much eye candy in the clown range this winter until more recently. 

[Deweydog]

My wife just asked AGAIN.

 

She’s now convinced there will not be school on Monday.

 

Sorry.

[TT-SEA]

My wife just asked AGAIN.

 

She’s now convinced there will not be school on Monday.

 

Sorry.

 

She is correct!  

[Prairiedog]

My wife just asked AGAIN.

 

She’s now convinced there will not be school on Monday.

 

Sorry.

Portland Public Schools saw that it was going to snow in Atlanta so they're gonna close now for sure. 

[Front Ranger]

FV3 speeds things up further, and also goes further west. We've reached the point where we definitely want that trend to stop.

[Esquimalt]

FV3 speeds things up further, and also goes further west. We've reached the point where we definitely want that trend to stop.

What could happen if we keep going west?

[luvssnow_spokane]

What could happen if we keep going west?

 

MILLIONS OF PEOPLE DROWN!!!

[Timmy]

My wife just asked AGAIN.

 

She’s now convinced there will not be school on Monday.

 

Sorry.

my wife is convinced she will have school on Monday insisting that university of Portland never cancels.

[Front Ranger]

What could happen if we keep going west?

 

Too much ocean influence, moderated temps.

[Blizzard777]

FV3 speeds things up further, and also goes further west. We've reached the point where we definitely want that trend to stop.

I’ve got Raj all over it! He once stopped the world from spinning to fast

[Prairiedog]

What could happen if we keep going west?

Cold rain

[kokaneekidz]

Yeah when looking at history the best snow events for Puget Sound region going into a Arctic Intrusion scenario always have a double barrel low. The best one I can ever remember was from elementary school. They had to close early and it took a couple hours to get home via bus for just a 3.5 mile ride. It was 85 or so. I can't remember the year exactly nor the month... But all I can vouch for is the roads were compact snow and ice and even the manhole covers accumulated snow which means it had to be at least 7 degrees below freezing. It lasted for at least a week cold... So that maybe a clue to help nail down which event it was from the 80's. There was snow up in the Mukilteo Everett area that started way ahead of schedule due to the notorious convergence zone.

FV3 now showing a secondary, 992 mb low developing off of Central Vancouver Island late sunday morning. Interesting.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 18z FV3 is showing the possibility of a second round of snow Thursday night into Friday morning.

 

[Bodhijr]

Just ran 1" pex from a new well to my house. Its still in a open ditch 2 feet deep, I wasn't going to insulate it this week but maybe i should. Looking a bit nippy in Skamania county soon!

[Requiem]

I hope this doesn’t become a Seattle (or Portland/Valley) only event, I’d like a little storm for the whole area for once. Though the trends do seem to favor more northerly areas thus far.

[TT-SEA]

The 18z FV3 is showing the possibility of a second round of snow Thursday night into Friday morning.

 

12Z ECMWF showed almost the exact same set up.

[HighlandExperience]

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

My wife wanted to know if this will be a situation where its raining just below us and snowing here all week.

 

I told her there will be no rain after Saturday... and it will either be snowing or dry and will probably be beautiful wintry postcard scene type of week here.   

 

That made her feel better.   She does not like when we are buried in snow and its raining everywhere else because nobody has sympathy for her being late.   But if there is even an inch of snow in Bellevue then everyone panics and is late for work or they don't show up at all.     

[Perturbed Member]

FV3 through Monday night. Keep in mind the resolution is pretty low on these.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z ECMWF showed almost the exact same set up.

Yeah.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 3 hours 24 minutes!

[Requiem]

Quite a few GFS ensemble members are showing a healthy dose of snow at the end of next week. Included KPDX as well.

 

 

e-12 has been known to be the most accurate, so I'm going with that one.

 

But this event in general seems more favorable for Seattle for sure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kind of funny that the operational GFS is now colder than the FV-3 for early next week. Mid-range ensembles trended cooler and looks like about half the members want to develop troughing again around mid-month after a brief warm up. 

[Prairiedog]

The 18z FV3 is showing the possibility of a second round of snow Thursday night into Friday morning.

 

It's almost impossible to predict snowfall or amounts within a day.  I cant count the number of times it didn't materialize until it materialized.  Trying to figure out if it's gonna snow next week is fun if your tracking the % of how these near clown range snow forecasts turn out.  Your odds of this forecast coming true is probably less than 1%.  Yea, it might happen.  Even a blind squirrrel finds a nut once in a while.  I wouldn't put much energy into it coming to fruition. 

[MossMan]

My wife is convinced that there will be no snow next week. It will be all her fault if things trend too far west or east.