FV-Mike Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Part of the update from LOT. Still going with a general 1-3 for the Chicagoland area. in a nutshell, the latest forecast update is not a whole lotdifferent than the going forecast. The main area of change as faras snowfall amounts are concerned will be to spread some slightlyhigher snowfall amounts from the I-88 corridor up to the Wisconsinborder, which reflects the idea of the GFS shifting forcing on amore northerly track, which is in better agreement with the othermodels. Liquid to snow ratios have been a particular challenge.Since the environment in advance of the system will be particularlycold through the deep layer, ie. 700mb temps arnd -6C, expect thatliquid to snow ratios should be a bit lower than climatology. Snowis still expected to reach the far swrn portions of the CWA by arndmidnight Friday night, but with liquid to snow ratios arnd 8-9:1.Deep layer cooling should occur overnight Friday night and intoSaturday morning, increasing liquid to snow ratios to 12-13:1through the day on Saturday 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE332 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 ...Accumulating Snow to Impact the Area Friday Night into SaturdayMorning... IAZ069-079-080-090-091-NEZ051>053-065>068-078-088>093-110545-/O.NEW.KOAX.WW.Y.0001.190112T0000Z-190112T1800Z/Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-Including the cities of Council Bluffs, Glenwood, Red Oak,Sidney, Hamburg, Tabor, Farragut, Clarinda, Shenandoah, Wahoo,Ashland, Yutan, Omaha, Bellevue, Papillion, La Vista, Seward,Milford, Lincoln, Plattsmouth, Nebraska City, Crete, Wilber,Fairbury, Beatrice, Tecumseh, Sterling, Auburn, Pawnee City,Table Rock, and Falls City332 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO NOON CSTSATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inchesexpected. * WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Nebraska andsouthwest Iowa. * WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to noon CST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Thehazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow willcause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roadsand limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from canbe obtained by calling 5 1 1.Seems like OAX is agreeing with the farther North solutions, considering Saunders county is included in the action too. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Seems like OAX is agreeing with the farther North solutions, considering Saunders county is included in the action too.So playing it safe still on 2-4 I would say 3-6. If the northern area develops like the nam then we could see up to 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 So playing it safe still on 2-4 I would say 3-6. If the northern area develops like the nam then we could see up to 8I'd say less than 3" is still a very reasonable outcome should a late changeover (HRRR) or dry air (GFS) come into the picture as well. 2-4" is a good start and they'll update in the morning if need be. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Bad trends for up here. Very good chance I won't see a single flake. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 Bad trends for up here. Very good chance I won't see a single flake. Nothing-burgered in Marshall as well.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 I'd say less than 3" is still a very reasonable outcome should a late changeover (HRRR) or dry air (GFS) come into the picture as well. 2-4" is a good start and they'll update in the morning if need be.I'm on the fence about thermals. The storm is interesting to me on the theramls. The dry air is definitely a concern but I don't think it as big an issue here as further east in Iowa. I could definitely be reading this storm wrong but we will see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 3k really got on board this run and added way more moisture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jzuzphreek Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 NWS Discussion for Kansas City National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 357 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 .Discussion... Issued at 330 PM CST THU JAN 10 2019 Surface troughing just west of the forecast area giving a steady dose of southerly winds through the day, and despite that, as well as the mid level ridging we are only seeing modest temperature recovery today, with highs maxing out around 40 degrees. Upstream of the mid level ridging a fairly amplified trough is coming onshore along the Pacific coast and will slowly lumber eastward through the night tonight into Friday. This trough will become the next weather maker for the entirety of the forecast area, likely Friday night into Saturday. As a surface trough closes off over the Texas Panhandle southerly flow ahead of the trough will push a good slug of moisture northward into the Missouri River Valley. Initially this moisture will take the form of thickening low level clouds, but will eventually begin precipitating as saturation deepens through the day on Friday. The inverted, slightly closed off surface trough will stay adequately far enough south to keep the bulk of the warmest air to the south. S/SE surface winds will gradually become more E/NE as the trough pivots eastward through the day on Friday. This will stymie any further warming on Friday, and in fact begin a cooling process that should gradually convert the lightly falling precipitation into light snow. The exact timing of this change over is a little uncertain at this point, as much will have to do with how dry and cool the thermal profile during the early stages of the event is. Should wetbulb temperatures be below zero (which is a strong possibility) expect dynamic cooling from the falling precipitation and perhaps a quicker changeover to snow sometime Friday evening. That being said, model guidance still suggests that temperatures will be very close to freezing, and thus may have a hard time completely converting to snow in any impactful way prior to late Friday evening. GFS and ECMWF still hanging onto a "warmer" solution which should go through a slower transition, while the NAM and even the early stages of the HRRR are indicating a rather rapid changeover to all snow. Should that dynamic cooling and quicker changeover occur, we could be looking at amounts a bit higher than this forecast package indicates. In the mid levels the aforementioned Pacific coast trough will deepen and take on a neutral or perhaps even a slightly negative tilt as it lumbers eastward. Ahead of the trough, the low level cyclone will usher good moisture into the area, which would serve as ample fuel for steady precipitation. With good warm air advection and isentropic ascent ahead of the trough saturating the atmosphere prior to the mid level trough`s arrival it could spell a prolonged period of precipitation, on the order of 24 to 36 hours. Not all of this will be in the form of snow, as mentioned above, there will be lots of time spent adequately saturating the column to produce ice and then cooling the column adequately to sustain snow to the surface. However, there could be a period on Friday and then again on Saturday afternoon/evening when precipitation could come more in a wintry mix, as opposed to steady snow. The time period most likely to see the steady snow will be Friday evening through Saturday morning. And since this trough is not overly progressive precipitation should linger into Saturday. One other note about Saturday is the surface temperatures. While we hesitated to make any large scale changes to the forecast HIs for Saturday, we did nudge HIs a little lower, mainly due to the steady N/NE flow through the day, thick cloud cover, ongoing precipitation, and the still low sun angle. So, while previous forecast packages indicated a warming through the day on Saturday and perhaps more of a rain/drizzle, the lower temperatures brings more into play light snow or perhaps some light freezing drizzle through the day on Saturday. As for snow amounts, given the marginal thermal profile for efficient snow making, have opted for snow ratios generally ranging from 9:1 to 11:1 for the initial few hours of the event, increasing to around 12:1 to 13:1 overnight Friday night, as the thermal column continues to cool. Despite the 1/2" to 3/4" of QPF, that has yielded more of a 3 to 5 inch range for snow accumulation across the entire area. Further east, where temps start out a little cooler and where QPF is a little higher snow accumulations should be a tad higher, with perhaps 5 to 7 inches across portions of C MO. Have opted to issue a Winter Storm Warning for 7 counties in C MO where snow accumulations appear to be highest, with all other counties receiving Winter Weather Advisories primarily for snowfall, as well as mixed precipitation. With the event still 18 to 24 hours from really getting going, we could see the Headlines tweaked a little as hi-res models become more available. Once the precipitation moves out on Saturday evening and Saturday night, expect a dry forecast for the next several days with daytime highs through the upcoming week struggling to reach the middle 40s.URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE Winter Weather Advisory for KC/Central MO National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 328 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 ...Heavy Snow Expected Across Central Missouri Friday Night and Saturday... .A winter storm system will move across the region Friday into Saturday. Precipitation will begin as rain, before transitioning to snow in the afternoon and evening hours, Friday. Periods of moderate to heavy snow is likely Friday night into Saturday across central Missouri. The heaviest accumulations will occur after sunset, Friday, and through sunrise Saturday. Expect light snow to continue into the day on Saturday and taper off by Saturday night. KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>006-011>015-020>023-028>031-037-038- 043-044-053-054-111100- /O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0001.190112T0000Z-190113T0000Z/ Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte- Johnson KS-Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Holt- Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell- Livingston-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Jackson-Lafayette-Cass- Johnson MO-Bates-Henry- Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg, Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Wathena, Elwood, Troy, Highland, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing, Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee, Lenexa, Tarkio, Rockport, Fairfax, Maryville, Grant City, Albany, Stanberry, King City, Bethany, Princeton, Mercer, Oregon, Maitland, Forest City, Craig, Savannah, Country Club Villa, Maysville, Stewartsville, Osborn, Union Star, Clarksdale, Gallatin, Jamesport, Trenton, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph, Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge, Chillicothe, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside, Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Kansas City, Independence, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Belton, Raymore, Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, Warrensburg, Butler, Adrian, Rich Hill, Clinton, and Windsor 328 PM CST Thu Jan 10 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches expected. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and north central, northwest and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Mixed precipitation may bookend the snow both on Friday and on Saturday. Some minor glazing of surfaces will be possible Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening. Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 10, 2019 Report Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 653DBCC3-8BB1-47E7-8062-61B51D1F2AEC.pngCan you show a map of Missouri with this info? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jzuzphreek Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Can you show a map of Missouri with this info? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 00z nam looking good for here so far. The cut of is much sharper now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 00z NAM is pure gold! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 00z NAM is pure gold!That cutoff is making me clench my a** cheeks 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 That cutoff is making me clench my a** cheeksI bet! If I remember right there was a sharp northern cutoff on Nov 25th in the last cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Models seem to be settling on 0.15-0.25" for Cedar Rapids. I guess that counts for a big snowstorm this winter. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 18z Euro...@ Clinton, your looking golden and so are those in and around the KC region... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 18z Euro...@ Clinton, your looking golden and so are those in and around the KC region...Wow we are talking about 2/3 of my average seasonal total in one snow! Thanks for posting the Euro! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 RGEM with 5” up to I80 in eastern Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 00z RGEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Wow we are talking about 2/3 of my average seasonal total in one snow! Thanks for posting the Euro!The Kuchera totals off the 12z Euro are wild. Hopefully you can get some good banding to set up over your area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 The Kuchera totals off the 12z Euro are wild. Hopefully you can get some good banding to set up over your area.Yes and it looks like the heaviest snow will fall while its dark to help accumulations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Canadian south in iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 I can't say I'm too excited about this. 1-2" is probably what we can expect in CR. The northern edge should be pretty close. Watch parts of Missouri get 12+ inches, something I've never seen in my entire life. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Man sharp cut offs in iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 After 00z models tonight, imo I think it's time to focus on short range models and radar trends. Good Luck to everyone!! 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 GFS still has a some what stronger north side. Going to interesting to watch for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 No offense, but how long have you been alive? During the 2011 GHD storm, there were parts of Missouri that got over 20 inches of snow. I was in Chicago for that one. But Missouri got pounded too. https://www.weather.gov/dvn/groundhog_blizzardDuring 2013 and 2014, I got a foot of snow at my house in the south burbs of KC in a couple of different storms. It's really not that unusual (though not typical either). I'm 44, lived my entire life in Cedar Rapids. I've never measured over 11" or so from any storm. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 I'm 44, lived my entire life in Cedar Rapids. I've never measured over 11" or so from any storm.That’s insane Hawkeye, you have never measured more than 11” from a storm?!? It seemed like all of iowa got destroyed from the winters in the mid to late 2000’s. Specifically I remember either 2008 or 09 you guys seemed to be the magnet for all major winter storms?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 CMC stays consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Yup. Another 2-3 incher here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Yup. Another 2-3 incher here. Same ole . Haven't had over 3 inches in any one event all season. Pathetic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Yup. Another 2-3 incher here.You know Jim flowers used to have a rule called barbs rule, the models start bouncing keep the run at 72 hours out. That was a good few runs on at that hour. Either way I'll be happy. Wife has a job that morning so less snow means she won't have.to cancel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Same ole s**t. Haven't had over 3 inches in any one event all season. Pathetic.Haven't even gotten over 4" here in one event since GHD 2016. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 The FV3 was the first model to pick up on this storm so it deserves to verify. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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