Money Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Models have been consistent on taking a low pressure system and cutting it through IA/WI 18z GFS http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2019011818&fh=108&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= 12z GEM http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_024h&rh=2019011812&fh=114&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 One thing this storm will have is an insane temp gradient to work with http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=sfct&rh=2019011812&fh=108&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= 12z GFS FV3 Temps in the low 20’s in the snow area where its 40 just 30 miles away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 75 miles south please. Which is more than a feasible shift if snowcover/cold airmass prove to be more potent than forecast. Would shunt baroclinic zone out of Iowa and into MO hopefully coaxing the low to track along that instead. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Eh. This one screams dry air followed by 2" on the backside for Lincoln right now. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 Gfs FV3 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_fv3&p=snku_024h&rh=2019011818&fh=108&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= 12+ for LSE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Please don't track right over us and drop rain. That would suck after two nice snow events. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Looks amazing here but long ways out. Rain or a foot. On the edge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 0z Icon is a great hit for Central Nebraska. Another storm to start tracking. Been awhile since our December 26th blizzard. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Also a shearing out system would also support a flatter track. I've got a suspicion things actually trend a bit south over the next few days and that's removed from the IMBY bias. I think models are cutting this too hard. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 I don't have maps yet, but for Des Moines, the European gives .78 qpf for Tuesday. Please let this occur!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 I don't have maps yet, but for Des Moines, the European gives .78 qpf for Tuesday. Please let this occur!!!I'm more inclined to believe the Euro as the track that its rendition of the surface low takes makes more sense given snow cover and the nature of the system itself. It's much flatter than the GFS and especially the CMC. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'm more inclined to believe the Euro as the track that its rendition of the surface low takes makes more sense given snow cover and the nature of the system itself. It's much flatter than the GFS and especially the CMC.Let's hope so. Gives CID .81 qpf! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'm more inclined to believe the Euro as the track that its rendition of the surface low takes makes more sense given snow cover and the nature of the system itself. It's much flatter than the GFS and especially the CMC. GRR sure seems convinced of snow. Even have it in my grid. They've been calling for a snowstorm in their AFD's for several days already. Seem to be ignoring the many warm rainer runs that have crept into the picture. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 GRR sure seems convinced of snow. Even have it in my grid. They've been calling for a snowstorm in their AFD's for several days already. Seem to be ignoring the many warm rainer runs that have crept into the picture.If you ask me, those runs just dont make sense. Why would a shearing out surface low(above 1000mb) cut so hard and over deep snow, away from where the baroclinic zone would theoretically be. This system isn't gonna have the ability to displace the baroclinic zone very far from wherever it ends up as WAA probably wouldn't be too intense with a weakening system overall. We'll see, just dont think this goes straight into deep snow like the CMC and GFS want to do. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Book it Danno!!! (if you get it or don't get -you know my age-- The original Hawaii Five-O) 6 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 06z Euro is suggest a weakening SLP as it track ENE out of CO into KS/MO keeping the R/S line at or about from I-80 on north across IA into IL. This would be a positive trend if it shows up on today's 12z runs. @hlcater, what you mentioned may be something to look for as there will be a deep snow pack across the MW and the modeling may be digesting that data better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Hopefully this storm can deliver for many Nebraskans who have been missed by almost every storm this winter. I have been very fortunate in our area of Central Nebraska, but it has been almost a month since we have had anything more than a flurry or brief snow shower. 12z 12 km NAM looks promising. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 12z Icon. Nice hit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 19, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Decent shift south on 12z gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 12z GFS also a nice looking amount. Not massive but something to really make many of us happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 19, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Looks like a solid 4-7 band from IA into WI Weaker low overall but meh http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019011912&fh=90&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_024h&m=gfs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Looks like a solid 4-7 band from IA into WI Weaker low overall but meh http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019011912&fh=90&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_024h&m=gfsThat band comes across my area of Nebraska. I would be ecstatic with a 4-7” amount. I’m sure @gabel23 would like any amount at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'd be happy with the 4" GFS is showing. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 GFS with 6 inches here. Awesome! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Another six plus. I’m not sure my back can take it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 12z CMC also good. Good to see these models all fairly similar. This only being 72 hours out or a little less makes me feel better that this isn’t 7 days out. I will anxiously await the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'm with LNK I'll take the 4 on the GFS. CMC looks good all around except here lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Looking pretty consistent. I like where I'm at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 FV3 looks about the same as the other 3. Very consistent morning of runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 DMX not excited about this. Only calling for a couple inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 FV3 looks about the same as the other 3. Very consistent morning of runs.Hoping we both get involved with a healthy band of snow going southwest to the northeast. I'm thinking @Clint would love it too as we have had a string of bad luck lately. I did pick up a dusting of snow over night to go along with the .20" of ice yesterday. the side streets around town is like a skating rink! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Hoping we both get involved with a healthy band of snow going southwest to the northeast. I'm thinking @Clint would love it too as we have had a string of bad luck lately. I did pick up a dusting of snow over night to go along with the .20" of ice yesterday. the side streets around town is like a skating rink!Forgot about @Clint. Yes he has also been missed frequently as well. Same thing here with ice and a dusting, the freezing drizzle caused many issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 12z Euro...Chicago riding the southern edge...so close.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Get that disgusting Euro run away from me. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 12z Euro...Chicago riding the southern edge...so close....Just keep the rain away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just keep the rain away.Actually, there is over .50” of rain across N IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 Euro looks good. We need to give C WI some love. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 I don’t care whether it snows or not, I just don’t want it to rain. Rain ruins a good snowpack. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 19, 2019 Report Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'm not feeling good about this weak cutter. Like hlcater, I'd hate to see rain ruin the insulating snow ahead of the arctic cold. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.