Madtown Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 IMO MKX should have mentioned the rising possibility of a significant snowfall. We went from 6-8" to 5-7" to 3-6" to 2-6". People are not expecting more than 3" here.That's what I'm saying. No one believes there is a chance of a storm atm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 KFXA in Cedar Rapids now says 4-7 inches for Cedar Rapids. That's kinda trigger happy IMO. I'd say 3-5 accounting for either dry air, or mixing at any point. It's possible CR sees that much, but that probability isn't high enough to put that in a forecast. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 I'm in Iowa City and thinking 1-3" for myself. That is still MUCH better than rain so I'd be content with that. However statistically, I'll still "measure" in Hiawatha and record that. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Not saying it means much - but 850 temps on GFS allready ( 0C) much further S in IA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 GFS is also south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Man, if we get half of what some of these models are showing, We will have the best snowpack I’ve seen in CR in years. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 GFS for sure S of 18Z GFS-- lining up with trends 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Seeing the same structural changes in the GFS. The 500 mb energy, which had been expected to focus in Nebraska and head east, is instead being shifted back sw by about a state. It's kinda being detached from the northern stream. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 gosaints is right- ejecting slower-- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 wow snow seems delayed till 3pm or so here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Cedar Rapids/ Iowa city appear to be in the heaviest band on the 0Z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 how big can this go? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 gosaints is right- ejecting slower-- Quite a slow down. I mean we are still about 24 hours from the good stuff for alot of areas now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 I’ll take the gfs for the win please! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 GFS with nearly 10” for Cedar Rapids by midnight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 A wet fart will blow around whatever fluff we score here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 The other note would be the storm deepens as it ejects on the GFS. A large change from a not many runs ago. The new gfs was the first to show that possibility 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 0z GFS looks heavier for N IA compared to 18z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 I knew this would come south. Just didn't expect it to be so late in the game. I pretty much gave up on myself yesterday after the models trended even farther north for last night's 00z. I'm very surprised to say the least. Just had a feeling that models were too far north/warm when they were having WAA overpower a vast expanse of deep snow so quickly, that looks to be the case. Then again that might not be as the changes were at 500mb as well. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Wow, wind's howling outside. 20-30mph. Out of the SSE. Not typical for us, indicates rain.54* and currently a 20% chance of rain rising to 40% in the early hrs. This month is acting more like March in Texas, not January. What gives Weather Swamis ?? Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Nice can’t wait to see what the king shows! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 WOW. GFS with 10.4 inches in Cedar Rapids. I fully expect DVN to issue winter storm warning for Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 I knew this would come south. Just didn't expect it to be so late in the game. I pretty much gave up on myself yesterday after the models trended even farther north for last night's 00z. I'm very surprised to say the least. Just had a feeling that models were too far north/warm when they were having WAA overpower a vast expanse of deep snow so quickly, that looks to be the case. Then again that might not be as the changes were at 500mb as well. Its weather. Complicated right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerwx Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Looking into the chat rooms now for DVN and MKX..lots of activity...trying out whether or not to delay the inveitable at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Some hefty totals on the models tonight around here. Man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erburns18 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 NWS Omaha @NWSOmaha · 2m In the interest of being fully transparent, this is a tough forecast coming up for tomorrow. We do have some computer models that are shifting the axis of heavier snow a little farther south toward Lincoln and Omaha, but some models are not. Still assessing the details. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 The other note would be the storm deepens as it ejects on the GFS. A large change from a not many runs ago. The new gfs was the first to show that possibility Yeah, as the energy is detaching some from the northern stream, it's slowing and strengthening a bit more compared to earlier runs quickly whisking the energy up and away. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Its weather. Complicated right?Yea no doubt.I'm trying to find out why exactly the models trended south. One would think surface snowcover wouldn't affect whats happening at 500mb, especially when the vort itself is embedded in such a large scale feature like that trough in the west. Unless the vort itself was just handled that poorly, but even that seems implausible. Interesting case if these trends verify. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Looking into the chat rooms now for DVN and MKX..lots of activity...trying out whether or not to delay the inveitable at this point.Interesting...keep us posted! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Could see alot of places getting upgraded with current modeling. Not liking the Nam with all the ice its showing in N IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Lol I feel bad for the offices who have had to cover western Iowa the last two storms. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 anyone have the NOAA FV3 link? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 I'm not buying Kuchera but I could see offices bumping up totals an inch or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 OAX update. 581FXUS63 KOAX 220331AFDOAX Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE931 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019 .UPDATE...Issued at 925 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019 Freezing drizzle has set up across northeast NE and northwest IA,north of a line from Columbus, NE to Onawa, IA. The Norfolk, NEASOS has already measured 0.12 of flat ice, which would correspondto 0.05 of radial ice. Models seem to be locked in on this areathrough the remainder of the evening, and not seeing much trend toshift south until after midnight. Another concerning trend would be the changeover to snow onTuesday. 18z GFS and 00z Nam models have shifted the axis ofheavier snow a little farther south for tomorrow afternoon, butnot seeing that trend in the most recent RAP and HRRR models andthe Hires ARW, but not the HiRes NMM models. So that is somethingthat we`ll be looking at closely when the 00z GFS and ECMWFmodels come in to see if an adjustment is needed farther south inhigher snowfall totals. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 I'm not buying Kuchera but I could see offices bumping up totals an inch or two.Yeah I’m not buying the 10+ totals, but it’ll be interesting to see if the DVN pushes up the forecast for my area. Latest was 4-6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 I’ll take the gfs for the win please!Yeah same here, 6+ from this system would be a huge surprise. I am still thinking 2 to 4 inches across the Omaha metro area is a safe bet, on top of a sheet of ice... both the morning and evening commutes around here are going to be miserable LOL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 00z GFS-FV3 also much slower, but not much farther south... surface low still lifts up into southeast Iowa. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2019 Report Share Posted January 22, 2019 Hawkeye, do you have that link?? This will be a good storm to see how this model performs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.