gosaints Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 For sure. Gonna need some of this snow to pan out to reach these potential temps. At least here. 1” of snow OTG isn’t gonna cut it.right gonna need the late weekend storm to come through. Though we do have about 5 inches on the ground down here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 right gonna need the late weekend storm to come through. Though we do have about 5 inches on the ground down here There should be a few weak clippers/impulses even before the bigger system. GFS has 2 such systems. Shouldn't amount to more than 3" for any one location, but could lay down some snow in areas that need it. Speaking of which, if any of these decides to become more robust than currently projected(especially the one in the Sunday timeframe) I could absolutely see the bigger system trending south and probably a bit drier as well. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 There should be a few weak clippers/impulses even before the bigger system. GFS has 2 such systems. Shouldn't amount to more than 3" for any one location, but could lay down some snow in areas that need it. Speaking of which, if any of these decides to become more robust than currently projected(especially the one in the Sunday timeframe) I could absolutely see the bigger system trending south and probably a bit drier as well.Doubt it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Playing a fools game with the models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 I realize that, thanks. I'm saying I doubt it be warm enough at the surface for rain. Highs would have to be raised over 20 degrees to have liquid rain.If the storm is strong enough and pulls enough warm air in with it, I wouldn’t doubt it happening. Don’t think it’ll be robust, but I’m guessing a storm pulling in this kind of moisture could bring some decent WAA with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 I could potentially see this thing getting drier. I’m always a little weary of huge arctic highs to the north. Arctic air doesn’t exactly promote efficient snowfall. At the same time, cold temps do help with ratios. So we’ll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 I know clippers are different than phasing storms, but the GFS caved to the euro this past system. I favor the Euro even in this clipper system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Not out until the king says so 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 I know clippers are different than phasing storms, but the GFS caved to the euro this past system. I favor the Euro even in this clipper system Unfortunately, clippers are The King's blind spot. It does much better with systems coming out of the SW, thus S Stream waves. Was a time the GGEM was most reliable for clippers due to their origination north of the border, but can't/won't trust GGEM for anything these days. GFS loves to hype the WAA element in every storm. In short, as per my prior "madness" post, tracking a clipper is a real dice-toss if you ask me. This thing will bounce worse than a dented ping-pong ball Cone of uncertainty is easily 500 miles wide attm. UP of Mich down to S Indiana/Ohio 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Personally, I think this will end up being a bunch of model hype. The strong storm, the record-level cold wave, blah blah blah. CPC says "what storm" http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Based on how it looks so far, wouldn’t be surprised to see the GFS go even further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Based on how it looks so far, wouldn’t be surprised to see the GFS go even further north. Baroclinic zone is a bit south of 18z. Sfc low will track parallel to that, so I think it holds serve if not slightly south. Similar to 12z. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 GFS stays north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Baroclinic zone is a bit south of 18z. Sfc low will track parallel to that, so I think it holds serve if not slightly south. Similar to 12z.Similar to 18z, ever so slightly further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Baroclinic zone is a bit south of 18z. Sfc low will track parallel to that, so I think it holds serve if not slightly south. Similar to 12z.Low is stronger WI crush job Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Similar to 18z, ever so slightly further north.Yea. Baroclinic zone started further south, but a stronger sfc low (995 to 998) moves it north anyways. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Come on, just shift south by 50 miles or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Pound town in central WI. It’s whatever if we miss out, but no thanks to the rain please. At least it didn’t take another big jump north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Come on, just shift south by 50 miles or so.Definitely not out of it yet. Usually not great to be in the bullseye right now anyway. Just have to hope the future shifts are back south and not further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Gem is good for ia/IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Gfs way north icon south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Gem is good for ia/ILLol, GFS has the low around Milwaukee at HR 114, and the CMC has it around St. Louis. Only a difference of ... what? 400ish miles? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Pound town in central WI. It’s whatever if we miss out, but no thanks to the rain please. At least it didn’t take another big jump north. I hate to jinx stuff, but GFS was way north with the rain with this last storm. At one point, it had me getting all rain IIRC, and it was all snow in the end. Just watch closely, but this might be a trend for GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 GFS still bringing those -50 wind chills through next Wednesday. Had -40 wind chills for over 24 hours. I do not believe that’ll verify, but my goodness it’s srill incredible to see haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 GFS trying to nudge the cold air a bit west at least. Daytime temps near zero in Lincoln on Wednesday compared to 20s on the 12z. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Ukie went back north 997 L near Chicago at 120 http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Yikes... don't like the GFS/UK at all. I hope they are overdoing the ability of the low to cut across the deep snow pack. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Ukie went back north 997 L near Chicago at 120 http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120Interested to know where it went between HR 96 & 120. Obviously further north than last run, but also further south than the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Yikes... don't like the GFS/UK at all. I hope they are overdoing the ability of the low to cut across the deep snow pack.Probably depends how strong it ends up being. I’m guessing it’s no coincidence that the stronger the model has the SLP (GFS > Ukie > GEM), the further north it has the storm going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 I’m not sure what the GFS-FV3 is doing with this storm because it skipped hours 102-114, but I can tell you it’s not what other models are showing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Hold on. The 00z UK is much better than it looks. The 6-hr maps show the surface low diving through Sioux Falls to south-central Iowa, then it pivots and turns ene through Chicago. It still dumps good snow over much of Iowa. The 24-hr maps make it look like the low tracks from Sioux Falls to Chicago. I hate 24-hr maps. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Hold on. The 00z UK is much better than it looks. The 6-hr maps show the surface low diving through Sioux Falls to south-central Iowa, then it pivots and turns ene through Chicago. It still dumps good snow over much of Iowa.I was wondering if that was the case, but it’s hard to tell with the 24 hr increments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 00z UK 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Euro is definitely further south than the GFS. Think it’s further south of the Ukie, though they’re pretty close. Again, tough to know using the 24-hour increments. Euro is quite a bit weaker with the SLP pressure at HR 120. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Euro crushes most of Central and S MN and Iowa E of I-35 and slightly weakens in N.IL Widespread 10"+. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 00z euro differences..... tracks more directly southeast toward chicago vs digging south and then east... plus this run is quite a bit weaker with the low (up 10 mb from last night, up several from this morning) Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Insanely cold temps for parts of Iowa next week on the Euro, -40 in spots. Meanwhile a toasty -8 in Lincoln. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Maybe, El Nino will influence this and make it come more south and west lol. Wishful thinking Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Gfs way north again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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